MACRO
The external weather. Fed decisions, dollar strength, oil, credit markets. Only here when it's moving the crypto price, not for its own sake. Every macro story lands on a portfolio implication or it doesn't run.
ON-CHAIN
+3
Oct 12, 2026
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4 min read
Houthi missiles hit Riyadh airport as diesel reaches $6.28
Also: an XRP Ledger bug that could have minted trillions, and Papertrade limits trading.
BITCOIN
+3
Oct 2, 2026
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5 min read
Trump says some inflation will pay off the debt
The president said some inflation will pay off the debt while the Fed raises rates to bring it down. Also: the first bitcoin fund outflow since September 16, and Derive's planned move to Ethereum.
BITCOIN
+2
Oct 2, 2026
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8 min read
Trump wants inflation. Bitcoin rose and gold fell.
Bitcoin and gold moved the same way on eight of the ten weekdays since the Fed's rate rise. Two days of fund buying made the difference, and those buyers have now turned.
ON-CHAIN
+3
Oct 1, 2026
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4 min read
US core inflation fell to 3.0% in August
Inflation cooled and rate-hike odds fell, but the money going into the bitcoin funds shrank every day.
BITCOIN
+2
Sep 29, 2026
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7 min read
Bitcoin fell four days running as funds bought
The US spot bitcoin funds took in $2.39 billion, their biggest week in our records, and bitcoin closed lower on four of the five days. Who sold into them, and what it means for the June call.
BITCOIN
+2
Sep 25, 2026
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8 min read
Bitcoin rose 9.5% in three weeks with no new dollars behind it
Our weekly dollar count fell $94 billion instead of rising a third week, so the June call stays as written. Bitcoin held up anyway, carried by $2 billion of buying through the US spot bitcoin funds.
BITCOIN
+3
Sep 22, 2026
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7 min read
Bitcoin rose 13% as the dollar turned up
Our June rule says a strong dollar caps crypto. Four sessions ran through it. Here's what would retire it.
BITCOIN
+3
Sep 18, 2026
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9 min read
The Fed hiked and dollar liquidity grew anyway
The rate went up and the money supply went up with it, which is not the story anyone told you yesterday.
BITCOIN
+3
Sep 18, 2026
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4 min read
The SEC cleared US stocks to trade on-chain.
Congress stalled, so the regulator moved. Then Japan raised rates to their highest in about 31 years, and bitcoin rose anyway.
BITCOIN
+3
Sep 16, 2026
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6 min read
The Senate said no. Bitcoin slipped under the band.
The bill fell eleven short and bitcoin closed under its band. Our three counts say the money hasn't moved.
BITCOIN
+3
Sep 15, 2026
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4 min read
Eighteen attorneys general moved against the crypto bill
Eighteen state attorneys general told the Senate to vote it down. The odds fell to 18%.
BITCOIN
+3
Sep 8, 2026
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6 min read
How we read an ETF flow number
You have already had last week's ETF number. Nobody printed the two things that decide what it is worth: how many separate counts it actually represents, and what bitcoin did over the window it covers.
BITCOIN
+3
Sep 4, 2026
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8 min read
Waller named the data he is waiting for
You have already had the half of Waller's speech that moved the price. The half that names the release he is waiting for sits further down, and it points somewhere else.
ON-CHAIN
+3
Aug 31, 2026
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5 min read
Argentina's inflation collapsed. The dollar tokens stayed.
Dollars are legal to buy again there, and one in five Argentines still uses crypto.
