| THE BRIEFING |
| GM. This is The Crossover. |
| Traders spent Thursday deciding what today’s jobs number will say, a day before it comes out. |
Waller said he would rather hold rates. Bitcoin rose 5%.

Christopher Waller is one of seven governors on the Federal Reserve Board. On Thursday he gave a speech and said he is inclined to leave rates where they are when the Fed meets on 15 and 16 September.
Bitcoin went from the mid $77,000s to above $81,000 the same day. It is $81,231 this morning, up 5.4%. Ether rose 5.3%. Solana rose 4.2%. On Polymarket, the odds of a September rate increase fell from 59% to 43% in a day.
That is a 5% day on one sentence.
Now read the rest of the speech. The hold came with a condition, and traders bought the hold without reading it. "If the incoming data for August show this improvement has been fleeting, then it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate when the FOMC meets on September 15 and 16."
So he expects to hold, he may still raise, and both sit in the same paragraph. He does not mention a cut at all.
The August jobs report comes out today. Economists expect around 53,000 new jobs and unemployment near 4.1%. ADP's count of private hiring has already shown 38,000 against forecasts near 47,000, with factories cutting 17,000 on their own. A weak number and Waller gets his hold. A strong one and a hike is possible again.
One number did not move. The market on whether the Fed will cut at all this year sits at 89% for no cuts, on $7.9 million of trading, and it stayed there while every other number on the screen moved.
Traders now think a hike this month is less likely. They still do not expect a cut this year. The jobs number comes out at 8:30 New York time.
Rollups used a record amount of Ethereum's data space.
5.9 blobs per block on a three-day average and 6.7 on the day. Both are records, and both beat the old peaks from late 2025.
Blobs are the cheap data space Ethereum sells to the chains built on top of it. Selling that space is the business. Trent van Epps, who organizes Protocol Guild, put the numbers out on Thursday.
Ether is up 5.3% today with everything else, because a Fed governor gave a speech. The blobs had nothing to do with it.
Usage runs at roughly 40 to 50% of the current 14-blob ceiling, so the network is busy and nowhere near full. And the developers who would raise that ceiling again get funding Protocol Guild calls thin for a chain this size.
A memecoin bought up most of a stock token. The stock did not move.
Can a memecoin move a real company's share price? Over the weekend, a token called BONER bought up 53% of the tokenized HIMS shares on Robinhood's chain.
The token rose to $132.64 while the real stock had closed at $28.84. Tokenized AMC rose to $166.86 against a real close of $2.59. On Monday the gap closed.
Every Robinhood stock token has a real share behind it, so when a token trades far above the share, Robinhood can issue more tokens.
About 4,000 new HIMS tokens arrived and the price came back down. Buying up the tokens makes the tokens scarce, and nothing else. Fifty-three percent of the tokens is 0.014% of the real HIMS shares.
Galaxy's version on Solana is the one that would reach the real shares, because there the token is the share rather than a claim on one.
| 🎲 The Odds | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 👁 What to Watch | ||||||
|
| 📟 The Tape | ||||||||||
|
|
Whatever the jobs number says this morning, nobody is betting on a Fed cut this year.
TC
|
| This is The Crossover. We join the dots and tell you what we see; what you do about it is entirely yours to decide. We are analysts, not fortune-tellers, and nobody here owns a crystal ball. |
|
|||
Or copy your link: {{rp_refer_url}}
|