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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Traders spent Thursday deciding what today’s jobs number will say, a day before it comes out.
BITCOIN · Desk

Waller said he would rather hold rates. Bitcoin rose 5%.

Christopher Waller is one of seven governors on the Federal Reserve Board. On Thursday he gave a speech and said he is inclined to leave rates where they are when the Fed meets on 15 and 16 September.

Bitcoin went from the mid $77,000s to above $81,000 the same day. It is $81,231 this morning, up 5.4%. Ether rose 5.3%. Solana rose 4.2%. On Polymarket, the odds of a September rate increase fell from 59% to 43% in a day.

That is a 5% day on one sentence.

Now read the rest of the speech. The hold came with a condition, and traders bought the hold without reading it. "If the incoming data for August show this improvement has been fleeting, then it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate when the FOMC meets on September 15 and 16."

So he expects to hold, he may still raise, and both sit in the same paragraph. He does not mention a cut at all.

The August jobs report comes out today. Economists expect around 53,000 new jobs and unemployment near 4.1%. ADP's count of private hiring has already shown 38,000 against forecasts near 47,000, with factories cutting 17,000 on their own. A weak number and Waller gets his hold. A strong one and a hike is possible again.

One number did not move. The market on whether the Fed will cut at all this year sits at 89% for no cuts, on $7.9 million of trading, and it stayed there while every other number on the screen moved.

Traders now think a hike this month is less likely. They still do not expect a cut this year. The jobs number comes out at 8:30 New York time.

ETHEREUM · Desk

Rollups used a record amount of Ethereum's data space.

5.9 blobs per block on a three-day average and 6.7 on the day. Both are records, and both beat the old peaks from late 2025.

Blobs are the cheap data space Ethereum sells to the chains built on top of it. Selling that space is the business. Trent van Epps, who organizes Protocol Guild, put the numbers out on Thursday.

Ether is up 5.3% today with everything else, because a Fed governor gave a speech. The blobs had nothing to do with it.

Usage runs at roughly 40 to 50% of the current 14-blob ceiling, so the network is busy and nowhere near full. And the developers who would raise that ceiling again get funding Protocol Guild calls thin for a chain this size.

ON-CHAIN · Desk

A memecoin bought up most of a stock token. The stock did not move.

Can a memecoin move a real company's share price? Over the weekend, a token called BONER bought up 53% of the tokenized HIMS shares on Robinhood's chain.

The token rose to $132.64 while the real stock had closed at $28.84. Tokenized AMC rose to $166.86 against a real close of $2.59. On Monday the gap closed.

Every Robinhood stock token has a real share behind it, so when a token trades far above the share, Robinhood can issue more tokens.

About 4,000 new HIMS tokens arrived and the price came back down. Buying up the tokens makes the tokens scarce, and nothing else. Fifty-three percent of the tokens is 0.014% of the real HIMS shares.

Galaxy's version on Solana is the one that would reach the real shares, because there the token is the share rather than a claim on one.

🎲   The Odds
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? 56%
  
NEW  ·  Ether had a 5.3% day. At $2,507 this is a bet on a fall of about ten percent inside four months, and a small majority say it happens. This is the first time we have shown this market, so there is no move to report.
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? 44%
  
NEW  ·  Bitcoin is $81,231, so this needs a rise of roughly seventeen percent inside four months, and the crowd is just short of even on it. The $100,000 version of the same question is 31%. This one is also new for us, so there is no earlier reading to compare.
Will Solana dip to $90 by December 31, 2026? 60%
  
NEW  ·  Solana is $103.85 after a 4.2% day. Sixty percent is the firmest of the three readings here, and it is firm about a fall, which is odd on a morning when everything is up. Only about $11,000 of money sits behind it, so this is a small group's view.
👁   What to Watch
01 The Fed's overnight cash facility at $702 million This is where money funds park spare cash with the Fed overnight. Yesterday we told you it held $525 million and was heading to zero, and it went the other way, to $702 million. We should say so. Either number is next to nothing against a peak above $2 trillion, so the next money the Fed and the Treasury pull out of the system comes from bank reserves.
02 Solana's bigger transactions, due on the main network on 9 September Solana is quadrupling the maximum size of a single transaction, from 1,232 bytes to 4,096. The change has run on a test network since 1 September. Bigger transactions mean things like multi-signature approvals and private transfers fit in one go instead of in pieces. The first thing to watch is whether the date slips.
03 The Senate's 15 September vote on the crypto market-structure bill This is the vote on whether the Senate even starts debating the bill that would decide which US regulator is in charge of which crypto assets. The crowd does not expect much. The market on whether the bill becomes law this year sits at 17% with $12 million behind it, and if the vote fails on the fifteenth that probably settles the question for 2026.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $81,231 (+5.4%), Ether $2,507 (+5.3%), Solana $103.85 (+4.2%) The first up day in four, and most of it came in a few hours on Thursday. CoinGecko snapshot taken at 00:46 UTC.
Coinbase says 88% of its revenue now comes from outside bitcoin spot trading Brian Armstrong put it plainly on the earnings call. The company is “no longer a bet just on the price of Bitcoin.”
Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face Hugging Face is where most people publish and download open-source AI models. The company that sells the chips will own the shelf the models sit on.
Robinhood Chain has earned $18.7 million in 62 days Arbitrum needed 232 days to reach the same figure and Base needed 257. Robinhood Chain's best single day was $4.6 million, on 2 September.
Fear & Greed: 65, Greed, up two points from 63 That reading is from 3 September at 10:20 UTC, before Waller spoke and before the market rose 5%. Today's will be higher.
Whatever the jobs number says this morning, nobody is betting on a Fed cut this year.
TC
This is The Crossover. We join the dots and tell you what we see; what you do about it is entirely yours to decide. We are analysts, not fortune-tellers, and nobody here owns a crystal ball.
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