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GM. This is The Crossover.
Oil is the story this morning, and bitcoin is $83,830.
Macro

Houthi missiles hit Riyadh airport as diesel reaches $6.28

A flattened car tyre on a dark green background

On Saturday, Houthi missiles hit two terminals at Saudi Arabia's main airport in Riyadh. At least 12 people died and hundreds were hurt, the Wall Street Journal reports. On Sunday, AAA put the average US price of a gallon of diesel at $6.28, against $3.67 a year ago.

Most analysts blame the war with Iran, which began on 28 February. The White House has so far refused to send forces against the Houthis. The Journal says joining the Saudi strikes might draw Houthi attacks on more ships in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the narrow passage at the southern end of the Red Sea, and that would push oil higher.

President Trump has also been moving on Russian oil. On Friday he rolled back sanctions so Russia can sell more of it and announced a limited energy deal. On Sunday he said Russia and Ukraine would both stop striking each other's energy sites. He announced a similar ceasefire before and it didn't last, and Russia hasn't commented.

None of this helps anyone hoping the Fed will cut. The minutes of its September meeting say most officials judged another rate rise would likely be appropriate by the end of the year. On Polymarket, the market on whether there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2026 stood at 96% on Sunday, unchanged in a day.

A rise at the Fed's meeting on 28 October isn't ruled out either. The Polymarket market on a quarter-point rise at that meeting is at 17%.

Bitcoin is $83,830 this morning. It has stayed between $81,793 and $86,478 in our daily readings since 27 September. Traders already expect no rate cut this year, so what a higher oil price can change is the chance of a rate rise.

On-chain

XRP Ledger fixed a bug that could mint trillions

RippleX and the XRP Ledger Foundation disclosed on Sunday a decade-old flaw in the ledger's payment engine. The code dates to 2015. A researcher posting as Cayden_Liao says his team built a working demonstration that could create about 18 trillion XRP in one transaction. That is roughly 184 times the 100 billion XRP the ledger is meant to hold.

He reported it through the ledger's bug bounty program and earned the maximum $250,000. The fix shipped in version 3.4.1 on 25 September, and more than 80% of default validators, the computers that confirm transactions, upgraded that day. XRPL says it found no evidence anyone used the flaw on a public network.

If you hold XRP, the fix has been live for more than two weeks. We've seen the disclosure only as relayed.

DeFi

Papertrade tightens trading limits after manipulation claims

Papertrade, the 1,000x leverage exchange on HyperEVM we covered on Saturday, said on Sunday it is restricting exposure, onchain and through its relayers. Its statement doesn't confirm claims that a trader was blacklisted or stopped from closing positions.

The trigger is one wallet. The Block reports a trader netted $1.28 million by moving ETH prices on Hyperliquid, which Papertrade reportedly uses to set its own prices. Earlier reporting put the wallet's realized gains at about $1.73 million. The same wallet then lost $450,000 when 30 short positions were liquidated on Saturday night.

Papertrade pays winners from a pool funded by losing traders, and unpaid profits wait in a queue if the pool runs short. The manipulation is an allegation, and Papertrade hasn't confirmed any losses. If you trade there, your winnings are paid only when the pool has the cash.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October? 26%
Down 10 pts. This is a bet on whether US crude oil (WTI) trades at or below $80 a barrel at any point before the end of October. Four days ago traders gave it 36%. It's 26% now, so traders think a fall to $80 is less likely.
🔭 What to Watch
Wednesday's inflation report The US government publishes September consumer prices at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. A hot reading would add to the case for another rate rise, which most Fed officials judged likely by year end.
Bank earnings on Tuesday The big US banks start reporting quarterly results on Tuesday. They give a first look at how the economy is coping with ten-year yields above 5%.
Evernorth's Nasdaq debut Evernorth, which holds about 473 million XRP, is due to start trading on Nasdaq today as XRPN. Its first day shows what buyers will pay for a company that holds the coin.
📈 The Tape
• BTC $83,830, ETH $2,543.78, SOL $111.54 Those are CoinGecko readings from 00:50 UTC. Bitcoin was up 1.11% on the day, ether up 1.60% and solana up 1.51%. It's the third daily reading in a row that is higher than the one before.
• Crossover Pro's June bitcoin call is closed, and it worked The first Pro call, from 16 June, said to buy between $58,000 and $62,000 and that it was off if a week ended below $55,000. Bitcoin closed inside that range on 11 days, from 24 June to 8 July, and no week ended below $55,000. We closed it on 6 October at $86,625, about 44% above the middle of the range. No call is open now. Past results can go the other way. Crossover Pro is the paid edition, out Tuesdays and Fridays.
• Ethereum Foundation wallets sent 4,393 ETH to Kraken That is about $11.13 million, according to the on-chain tracker EmberCN. Of the 59,751 ETH one foundation wallet received ten years ago, 49,751 has now gone to Kraken, at an average price of about $658.
• Coinbase has finished its Deribit integration Former Coinbase International Exchange clients now get Deribit's options trading and margin system. Options are contracts that pay out if a price moves past a set level. US Prime options trading follows in a separate rollout.
• Fear & Greed: 69, Greed, up 8 from yesterday It was 61 on Sunday. The reading was taken at 02:39 UTC, about two hours after the price readings above.
Ask Viv
Ask Viv: How much should I invest in crypto?
How Much Should I Invest in Crypto?
It’s one of the first questions people ask when they get into crypto. In this Ask Viv, Viv says there isn’t one number that works for everyone, and to be very careful with anyone who hands you one. He starts with the checks that come before buying any crypto, gives a simple way to test how much risk you can really live with, and ends on three questions to answer before you put money in.
Watch the full Ask Viv
That’s today’s issue, and Wednesday’s inflation report is the next number to read.
TC
We read the news so you don’t have to, and we still can’t tell you where diesel goes next. Where your money goes is your decision.
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