Citrini Research, a macro research shop with more than 260,000 Substack subscribers, published a 79-page report this week called "Breaking The Wall". Inside it is a crypto portfolio of 15 tokens, and none of them is bitcoin or ether.

The argument is about fees. Stocks, credit and Treasuries keep moving onchain, and the report bets that the money made from trading them ends up with the venues and the chains they trade on rather than with the two biggest coins.

On September 17 the SEC gave platforms trading tokenized stocks a five-year exemption from registering as a full stock exchange, and that is the opening the report leans on. It also expects AI agents to speed things up, because software that trades around the clock needs markets that never close.

The 15 names fall into three buckets. Trading venues where tokenized stocks and derivatives change hands make up the first, and Hyperliquid, Lighter and Backpack are among them.

Apps that lend money out or pay interest make up the second, such as Ethena, Maple and Pendle. The plumbing underneath is the third, including Solana, Aave, LayerZero and Ondo.

The report itself admits that more activity on a chain does not mean its token goes up. Solana handled a record 557 million stablecoin transfers in September, up a third on August, and the question for anyone holding SOL is how much of that reaches them as fees. The same question hangs over all 15.

Citrini says it still likes bitcoin and ether and left them out because this portfolio is a bet on something else. If you hold the big two, the report is saying the next pile of fees from Wall Street moving onchain lands with the venues, and that the tokens collecting those fees carry a risk bitcoin does not. The app can do more business every month while its token goes nowhere.

Utah has sued Kalshi, the event-betting exchange, and the Susquehanna-linked trading firms that quote its odds. The state wants the betting stopped, the money returned and the profits handed over, and its complaint calls Kalshi a "back-alley gambling den". It says those firms kept the betting going after a federal appeals court ruled in August that Kalshi's sports contracts are sports betting.

Suing the firms that quote the odds as well as the platform is new, and it makes every US event contract costlier to run.

The CFTC is meanwhile defending Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual future, a futures contract that never expires, which CME sued to undo. On Friday the CFTC asked the judge to throw the case out because CME has not been harmed.

Its evidence is CME's own numbers, with its monthly crypto futures volume up 23% since May. If the case dies, Americans keep their regulated version.

Elice, a South Korean data-center company, listed on Tuesday with revenue up 200% and retail demand 400 times oversubscribed. The shares fell 32% on the first day and took the Kospi down 3.7%.

The same day the Wall Street Journal reported Anthropic's draft IPO filing shows a net loss of more than $80 billion in the first half of this year, against $13 billion a year earlier. CoreWeave, Oracle, IREN and Marvell fell too.

Bitcoin was $83,059 at our overnight reading, up 1.8% on the day. Ether rose 2.3% and solana 2%.

Raoul Pal's explanation is that there is not enough spare money to fund the AI build-out and push crypto at once, so it rotates. For now your coins are not trading like AI stocks. That lasts while the AI trouble is a share-price problem; if the debt behind the data centers goes bad, it reaches crypto too.