Bitcoin's funds and ether's funds went opposite ways

The US ether funds lost $103.3 million on Monday, and the bitcoin funds took $526.7 million. Our record holds every session since 2 April, and on no other day did the bitcoin funds take in $300 million or more while the ether funds lost money.

The reading going round is that money has come back to bitcoin. The fund-by-fund figures are narrower. BlackRock's fund took in $665.2 million, more than the day's total, because the only two other bitcoin funds that moved both lost money. On the three big days in September, every fund that moved took money in, five to seven of them, and BlackRock's supplied between a quarter and a half of the total.

It also came in a poor stretch. Over the ten sessions since 6 October the bitcoin funds are still $290.8 million down, and the ether funds are $914.8 million down.

On 13 October we showed that the bitcoin funds follow the price more than they lead it, so one strong day says little about the next week. That leaves a question about this day in particular.

We count a big day as $400 million or more into the bitcoin funds in one session. Monday was the first since 22 September, in a week when they took in more than $2 billion. Is Monday the start of something, or one good day in a bad fortnight? And what does it mean that the ether funds sold the same day? Our record can't settle the first. It speaks more clearly to the second.

The big days before Monday came in two kinds. Most came in runs of two or three, within a few sessions of each other, like the one that ended on 22 September. Two stood alone, one on 6 April and one on 3 September. Monday has the look of the lone kind, with one fund doing the buying after a week of net selling.

What followed the two lone days is the part of our record that matters for Monday.