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Bitcoin is $81,377 this morning, and Wednesday’s inflation report is next.
Bitcoin

Bitcoin slips to $81,377 as ETFs see outflows

A brown leather wallet bound tight with strips of grey duct tape, on a cream backdrop

Bitcoin is $81,377 this morning, down 2.8% in 24 hours, in the CoinGecko reading from 00:23 UTC. It's the lowest of our 17 daily readings since 27 September. Ether fell 4.5% to $2,423 and solana fell 6.4% to $104.03.

The Block reports $771 million of liquidations across crypto derivatives in 24 hours, about 89% of them on bets that prices would rise. A liquidation is an exchange closing a trader's borrowed-money bet after the price moves against it. Most of the forced selling came from people who were betting on a rise. Each forced sale pushes the price lower, which can push the next trader's bet past its limit.

Funds were selling too. In its Week 42 report, Glassnode's weekly measure of money moving in and out of US spot bitcoin ETFs went from $117.9 million of inflows to $701.6 million of outflows. That's far below its usual range.

Glassnode also found that open interest, the total value of bets still open on perpetual futures (contracts with no expiry date), stayed near the top of its range at $36.7 billion. Traders took their losses and kept their bets open. If the price keeps falling, more of those bets get closed out for them.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack says interest rates aren't yet high enough, according to the Wall Street Journal. On Polymarket, the market on a quarter-point rate rise at the Fed's 28 October meeting is at 20%.

Glassnode says funds and traders using borrowed money led the selling. Just over 70% of bitcoin's supply is still in profit, and new buyers kept arriving on-chain through the slide. If you hold coins without borrowing against them, the liquidations are other people's losses.

Regulation

South Korea orders blocks on 27 overseas exchanges

South Korea's Financial Intelligence Unit has ordered the country to block access to 27 overseas crypto exchange websites that aren't registered there, The Block and Wu Blockchain report. The list includes KuCoin, MEXC, Phemex, XT.com, Bitrue, CoinW, Poloniex, BTCC, BingX and BitMart.

The order follows reviews on 6 and 7 October and adds to existing limits on those exchanges' app downloads and updates. The unit has referred 44 unregistered operators to investigators and plans to ask for blocks on the alternative web addresses people use to get around them.

Wu Blockchain, citing the South Korean outlet Etoday, says affected users will get withdrawal guidance through DAXA, the association of South Korean exchanges. We've seen the announcement only as relayed. If your coins sit on one of the ten named exchanges, that guidance is the part to read.

Markets

Bitcoin miner IREN reportedly signs Anthropic deal

IREN, a bitcoin miner turned AI infrastructure company, has reportedly signed a multiyear deal to supply AI cloud computing to Anthropic, according to The Information. It's unclear whether this is the same deal with an unnamed AI lab that IREN disclosed in August.

A second miner is making the same move. SWI Group, the Amsterdam-listed company that runs bitcoin-mining operations once part of Sam Bankman-Fried's bankrupt FTX, raised around $900 million to expand its data centers, the Journal reports. It plans to offer computing capacity to big tech companies working on AI. Its shares rose more than 16%.

Miners already hold the power contracts and data centers AI companies want, so they have a second customer for the same buildings. If you hold bitcoin, the companies that secure the network are spending more of their effort on something else.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? 52%
Down 17 pts. This is a bet on whether bitcoin trades at or below $80,000 at any point before the end of October. It has fallen 17 points over five days to 52%, and when we last showed it, on 7 October, it was 55%. Bitcoin is about $1,400 above that level this morning, so traders put it close to a coin flip.
🔭 What to Watch
Wednesday's inflation report The US government publishes September consumer prices at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. A hotter reading would add to the case for another Fed rate rise, and a cooler one would ease it.
Big-bank earnings today The big US banks start reporting quarterly results today. They show how borrowers are coping with ten-year Treasury yields above 5%.
Tonight's ETF flow figures US spot bitcoin ETFs report their daily flows after the market closes. They show whether the outflows Glassnode measured have continued.
📈 The Tape
• BTC $81,377, ETH $2,423.09, SOL $104.03 Those are CoinGecko readings from 00:23 UTC. Bitcoin was down 2.79% on the day, ether down 4.45% and solana down 6.38%.
• A bitcoin wallet idle for six years moved 4,582 BTC That's about $377.6 million, moved on Monday, according to the on-chain tracker Lookonchain. Nobody knows yet whether it's a sale or a move to a new wallet.
• Strategy bought 250 bitcoin for about $21.5 million The Block reports the company now holds 848,250 BTC.
• Kraken's parent Payward won full Dubai approval Dubai's virtual asset regulator VARA cleared it to offer regulated services to retail and institutional clients. Kraken plans to launch in the UAE within weeks, according to Wu Blockchain.
• Fear & Greed: 57, Greed, down 12 from yesterday It was 69 on Monday. The reading was taken at 02:42 UTC, about two hours after the price readings above.
In Pro today
Bitcoin's funds sell with the price

In the three sessions to Wednesday 7 October, the US spot bitcoin funds lost $455.9 million to withdrawals. Wednesday's $484.9 million was their biggest single day since 25 June, and it came the day the Fed's minutes said most officials thought another rate rise likely by the end of the year.

Bitcoin closed Monday at $81,761, 4.8% below the Monday before.

The reading going round is that the funds are what pushes bitcoin down, so more withdrawals mean a lower price. Our record gives us a way to test that.

It starts on 2 April and holds every session since. Across the 26 full weeks from 6 April to 2 October, the funds took in money in 15 weeks and lost it in 11.

In the average week of inflows, bitcoin rose 4.4%. In the average week of outflows, it fell 3.1%. The funds and the price move together.

That doesn't tell you the order. If the funds sell first and the price follows, Wednesday's withdrawals are a warning. If they sell because the price is falling, the withdrawals add nothing the price hasn't already told you. So we set each week's flow beside bitcoin's move in the same week, and then beside its move in the week after. The two results are a long way apart.

Read today’s Pro
The rest of this one is for Pro readers. It picks up where this stops.
That’s today’s issue, and the big banks start reporting today.
TC
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