| GM. This is The Crossover. |
| Core inflation cooled to 3.0% on Wednesday, bitcoin buying has faded, and MetaMask says it is responding to a security incident. |
US core inflation fell to 3.0% in August, the lowest since February
On Wednesday the Commerce Department reported that core PCE, the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely, rose 0.25% in August. Core means it leaves out food and energy. Over 12 months, core prices are up 3.0%, the lowest rate since February.
July was revised down to 0.13%, the same as June. Together the three months add up to inflation of about 2% a year, which is the Fed's target.
Nick Timiraos, who covers the Fed for the Wall Street Journal, wrote that the report "doesn't much change the trend relative to what was already known." Barron's had warned that the report would need interpreting, because the government is changing how it measures several prices.
On Tuesday two Fed officials had given different views of what comes next. John Williams of the New York Fed said there is "no need for urgency." Governor Michael Barr said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed."
Traders on the prediction market Polymarket now give a Fed rate increase at the October meeting a 34% chance, down from 44% in yesterday's issue.
Bitcoin hasn't gained from that. It is $83,450 this morning, flat over 24 hours, and its last six daily readings sit between $83,301 and $84,312. The buying that lifted it above $86,000 on September 22 has faded. Farside, which tracks the US spot bitcoin funds, counts $999.0 million flowing in on September 21 and $134.5 million on September 25. Each day in between brought in less than the day before.
A lower chance of a rate increase only helps bitcoin if people are buying. Long-term bond yields are also near 19-year highs, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.241% on Monday. If you hold bitcoin, the funds' daily flows will show whether the buyers are back.
Robinhood is launching US perpetuals through Bitstamp, not Lighter
At its HOOD Summit on Tuesday, Robinhood said it is rolling out perpetual futures to eligible US customers. Perpetuals are bets on a coin's price that never expire and can be placed with borrowed money. Customers can borrow up to 10 times their stake on bitcoin and ether. On others, including Solana and XRP, the limit is 3 times.
The trades will run through Bitstamp, the exchange Robinhood owns. Many had expected Lighter, a decentralized exchange. Lighter's LIT token fell about 17% in under an hour. Robinhood's head of crypto, Johann Kerbrat, has said US rules for decentralized exchanges are unclear and that Robinhood is cautious as a public company.
If you borrow 10 times your stake on Robinhood, a fall of about 10% can wipe out what you put in.
MetaMask says it is responding to a security incident in its infrastructure
MetaMask, the Ethereum wallet run by ConsenSys, said overnight that it is responding to a security incident affecting part of its infrastructure. It says it has found no immediate threat to wallets. It is working with outside security advisers and, as a precaution, is pulling affected validators out of its staking service. MetaMask says the staking is non-custodial and it doesn't hold clients' withdrawal keys.
Lido, the staking service involved, estimates the whole exit and re-entry cycle could take up to about 45 days. MetaMask hasn't given a cause or said how much is affected, and nothing is reported lost.
If you stake through MetaMask, expect a long wait. If you only hold coins in the wallet, the company says it has seen no threat to them so far.
|
⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
|
||||
|
🔭 What to Watch
|
|
📈 The Tape
|
| 📒 Viv’s Notebook | |
|
|
|
Why a small market cap doesn’t mean a bargain
A small market cap can look like a bargain, but it can also mean the market has judged a project’s chances correctly. In this Notebook, Viv treats crypto as one risk spectrum and separates volatility from uncertainty. He sets out the questions to ask before a small project earns a place, then works the idea through with a $10,000 example.
|
|
Traders now see an October rate increase as less likely, and bitcoin buyers still haven’t come back.
TC
|
| We read one inflation report and ended up with roughly the view we started with. Where you put your money is entirely your decision. |
|
Ten signups, three months of Pro
Share your link. When ten people subscribe, you get three months of The Crossover Pro, free.
Or copy your link: {{rp_refer_url}}
|