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GM. This is The Crossover.
Bitcoin goes into Fed week at $80,052, and the real damage this weekend came from a shop’s website, an email key and a cloud host.
On-chain

Two hardware wallet makers leaked customer details

A locked orange safe with a brown shipping tag on its handle, the address panel torn away

Keystone makes hardware wallets. It confirmed that someone got into its website on October 20 and took customers' names, contact details, shipping addresses and order records. It says no seed phrases, keys or passwords were exposed. Keystone says it deletes customer records 180 days after an order in most cases. Some customers say their old orders were in the leak anyway.

Overnight a second wallet maker, Foundation, said owners of its Passport wallet had been getting phishing emails that quoted their own purchase details. It traced the emails to compromised Cloudflare API keys, the keys its website uses with the service in front of it. Passport devices and the funds on them are safe, it says.

Railway, a cloud host that crypto builders use, disclosed on October 21 that an intruder may have read the secrets its customers stored there. It told every user to change every key. Taylor Monahan, who investigates wallet drains, has tied about $371,000 of thefts across at least nineteen chains to private keys kept on Railway.

On Wednesday CoinDCX's chief executive Sumit Gupta called reports of a new breach at the Indian exchange "a false alarm". On Sunday the exchange confirmed $16 million is gone. The wallets were ones its attackers compromised in July 2025, the service that should have swept customer deposits out of them failed, and deposits kept landing in wallets the thieves still controlled. CoinDCX says it absorbed the loss.

The blockchains held in all four cases. The weak points were a shop's customer database, a web key, a developer's cloud account and a retired wallet nobody checked. If you bought a hardware wallet with your home address, assume that address is now on a list, and that the emails which follow will know your name. The device still works. The phrase on the card never goes into a website, an email or a support chat.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin starts Fed week at its lowest since September

Bitcoin was $80,052 at 00:43 UTC this morning, down 0.9% on the day and the lowest reading in our daily series since September 18. Ether was $2,324.92, its lowest since mid-September. The US bitcoin funds sold $773.5 million over Thursday and Friday, and no US session has traded since.

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday. On Polymarket, 94% say it leaves rates alone this week. The argument is about December. A Reuters poll of 100 economists found all 100 expect a hike then, and traders on Polymarket have a December hike at 77%.

So the hold is already in the price. What moves bitcoin on Wednesday is what Kevin Warsh says about December, and whether the statement leaves any room for a pause. Every daily reading in our series since September 19 has been above $80,000, Saturday's four hours under it aside. The cushion this morning is $52.

Markets

Jamie Coutts moved most of his bitcoin into altcoins

Jamie Coutts, Real Vision's chief crypto analyst, backtested the 200 largest tokens from 2022. He sorted them by quality: real fees, tight supply, money paid back to holders. The best third fell 50% over those four years while bitcoin rose 82%. Owning the good ones cost you money.

This year it reversed. The same top third is up 49% while bitcoin is down about 6%. Coutts has acted on it, going from a portfolio that was 80 to 85% bitcoin for years to about a third in layer-one chains and a fifth in DeFi tokens, up from nothing.

He says himself a single year is too short to prove much. He is not waiting for the second year. If you hold alts, the useful part is the screen itself. Fees, supply and payback separated the winners from the losers this year.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? 20%
Down 9 pts. This is the bet that the Fed does nothing at its December meeting, and it read 29% four weeks ago against 20% this morning. The opposite bet, a quarter-point hike in December, sits at 77%. Wednesday's statement is the next thing that can move the December market.
🔭 What to Watch
Today's US bitcoin ETF numbers. Farside publishes Monday's flows tonight, the first session since the funds sold $773.5 million over Thursday and Friday. A third day of selling makes it a run; buying means it stopped at two.
Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday, Amazon and Coinbase on Thursday. Both report after Wednesday's close, with Amazon, Coinbase and Michael Saylor's Strategy on Thursday. Bitcoin fell 3.6% the day Meta disclosed its AI bill, so a second spending shock would land on it again.
Stablecoin supply, down four days running. DefiLlama counts $303.3 billion of dollar stablecoins on-chain, down for a fourth day, with USDC off 6.2% in a month. A fifth fall says traders are still unwinding borrowed bets; a rise says dollars are coming back to buy.
📈 The Tape
• Bitcoin $80,052, Ether $2,324.92, Solana $101.21 (00:43 UTC). All three fell about 1% on Sunday. Bitcoin's reading is its lowest in our daily series since September 18 and ether's the lowest since September 16.
• Germany's Sparkassen switched on crypto trading on October 19. The cautious savings banks now sell bitcoin inside their own app, with 30 to 40 more member banks due to join each month.
• Polymarket: bitcoin at $90,000 by New Year, 44%. That is down from 48% on Sunday's snapshot, and a fall to $55,000 has gone from 10% to 12%. The crowd has leaned toward a fall two days running.
• Brazil: Lula won Sunday's runoff 51.8% to 48.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro's camp is alleging fraud. It was the most-discussed story on crypto social channels overnight, and 70% of the posts were bearish.
• Fear & Greed: 50, Neutral, down 4. The reading covers Sunday, when bitcoin slid from $80,796 to $80,052. Sentiment and price fell together this time.
Ask Viv
Ask Viv: What is DeFi?
What Is DeFi?
Borrowing money, exchanging currencies, earning interest and trading usually run through a bank or another institution in the middle. DeFi, short for decentralized finance, is an attempt to hand some of that work to software on a blockchain. In this Ask Viv, Viv explains how it works, what people actually use it for, and why relying less on intermediaries changes where the risk sits. He also says what to ask when a platform advertises a very attractive yield.
Watch the full Ask Viv
The Fed decides on Wednesday, and your seed phrase stays offline whatever it decides.
TC
This is The Crossover. We read the breach notices and the Fed odds so you can skip them; what you do with your own coins is entirely your call. We can tell you who lost their customer list, we cannot tell you what Wednesday brings.
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