Iran's president told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday that his country "will not surrender." Oil traders took that as their answer: Brent crude jumped about 4% to $103.08, snapping a five-day losing streak. Bitcoin fell 2.1% to the mid-$84,000s, the Nasdaq dropped more than 1%, and the bond market took the hardest hit of all.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Thursday at 5.16%, its highest since the 2000s. The 30-year closed at 5.46%, and the 2-year rose to just under 4.9%, its highest since May 2024. A widely watched gauge of 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.26%, the highest since January 2025.

Expensive oil keeps inflation sticky, and a Fed that hiked for the first time since 2023 six weeks ago now has traders pricing better than 70% odds of another hike in October. The government's own interest bill just crossed $1 trillion for the first time last month, because so much US debt was borrowed near zero and is rolling over at 5% or more. At a mid-September auction of 20-year bonds, foreign governments and central banks, the traditional biggest buyers, took a record-low 52.5% share. American pension funds, insurers and investment funds stepped in for a record 30.7%. The debt still finds buyers. They just want a bigger premium for holding it.

That premium is what hit Bitcoin on Wednesday. A rising real cost of borrowing weighs on every asset that pays no yield, Bitcoin included, even though a government that can't stop paying more to service its own debt is the kind of currency erosion Bitcoin was built to sit outside of. Watch whether Bitcoin holds above its May high of about $82,800 on a weekly close. The next real test comes October 14, when the next US inflation report either eases the pressure on the Fed or adds to it.

Bitget's CEO Gracy Chen confirmed on Wednesday that hackers drained roughly $350 million from the exchange's hot wallets, more than double the roughly $170 million on-chain trackers first spotted a day earlier. Chen said forensic analysis of VPN and IP patterns points "very likely" to North Korea.

A hot wallet is a wallet the exchange itself controls, unlike the wallet on your own phone or hardware device. When it gets drained, the exchange decides what happens next, not you. Bitget hasn't said yet whether user funds are covered or how it plans to make anyone whole.

North Korean hacking groups have been blamed for billions in exchange thefts over the past few years, and the Bitget breach follows the same pattern: a centralized exchange, a hot wallet, and money moving fast once it's out. If you keep meaningful funds on any exchange, this is the risk you're carrying.

New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket US on Wednesday, arguing its prediction markets meet the state's definition of gambling and asking a court to block the platform from operating there. The suit also says Polymarket let 18- to 20-year-olds trade sports markets when New York requires bettors to be 21, while paying none of the taxes a licensed sportsbook owes.

Polymarket runs through a CFTC-regulated exchange, and the CFTC's position is that federal oversight is enough on its own, no state gambling law required. New York disagrees, and it's already running a similar case against Kalshi.

If states start winning that argument, every prediction market built on crypto rails needs a license in every state that wants one, and the case for a single federal green light gets a lot weaker.