This website uses cookies

Read our Privacy policy and Terms of use for more information.

THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Three commissioners proposed an answer to a nine-year-old question about which tokens count as securities, and did it in a vote nobody watched.
REGULATION · Desk

The SEC proposed crypto rules without a meeting.

The SEC shelved the public meeting where it was going to propose crypto rules and set no new date. Then it proposed them anyway, with no meeting at all. All three commissioners voted yes.

The rule is called Regulation Crypto Assets and it comes in three parts. Two are plumbing, exemptions that let a project sell tokens without a full securities registration. Both matter less than the third.

The third part answers what everyone has been fighting about since 2017. It is a safe harbor. A qualifying token would no longer count as an investment contract. That is the legal test the SEC has spent nine years applying in court, one company at a time, and a rule settles it in advance.

Then there is the clause almost nobody is covering. The proposal says state securities law cannot override it. An American crypto business answers to fifty separate state regimes on top of the federal one. Fifty sets of rules is the real cost of operating, and turning that into one matters more to a small issuer than the federal question.

Nothing is binding yet. State regulators have never given up that ground quietly, so the clause overriding them is the likeliest to be fought out during the months when the public gets to object. A unanimous vote held outside a public meeting is what an agency does when it wants the substance without the hearing.

Meanwhile the CLARITY Act, the law Congress was meant to pass, is stuck in the August recess with a procedural floor vote expected on September 15. Bettors put its chances of being signed this year at 20%.

So the rulebook came from the agency rather than Congress. It arrives years earlier than a law would, and three commissioners can undo it. A statute cannot be undone that way. Bitcoin moved 0.21% on the day.

ON-CHAIN · Desk

Solana votes today on burning 15.8 million coins.

A governance vote on Solana closes today. If it passes, roughly 15.8 million SOL gets burned over six years. Grayscale's modeling then puts Solana's net inflation near 1.1% by 2031, which is the rate the coin supply grows once burns are counted.

Most crypto supply stories are vague. This one has a number, a mechanism and a deadline, and it is being decided by a vote rather than by splitting the chain in two.

Fewer coins created does not create buyers. It does change the issuance schedule for good, and the schedule is public. For anyone holding SOL it is also the only dated, yes-or-no event this week. Everything else on the calendar is a speech or a set of minutes.

DEFI · Desk

Centrifuge wants to turn its token into shares.

Centrifuge, which puts real-world loans on a blockchain, posted a proposal yesterday letting holders swap their CFG tokens for company shares at one token per share. The foundation behind the network would become a Cayman company that can issue stock. Anyone holding 100,000 CFG or more could own shares directly, and smaller holders would go through a trust it plans to set up with CoinList. Taking part would be optional. Who qualifies is still undecided.

Centrifuge's stated reason is that a public token has become awkward for a business selling to institutions. Too volatile, too exposed to regulators, too expensive to keep liquid. Equity could also open it to more venture and strategic money.

Last November the same holders approved a restructuring saying all of the value would flow through CFG and there was no equity business. That was nine months ago, and it is now on the table.

🎲   The Odds
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? 14%
  
-25 PT  ·  This asks whether crude touches $75 at any point before the month ends, and the crowd has all but written it off. Two days ago the same question sat at 39%.
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? 70%
  
+2 PT  ·  Bitcoin sits at $64,533 as this goes out, so the question is whether it adds about 8% by New Year's Eve. Seven in ten are saying yes, up from 68% yesterday. That is a lot of conviction for a price that has not left a $62,000 to $66,000 band in four weeks.
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? 11%
  
+1 PT  ·  Ether is $1,911.90, and this asks whether it roughly halves before the year is out. About one in nine say yes, a point higher than yesterday. The ether funds had their first weekly outflow in over a month and the number hardly moved.
👁   What to Watch
01 The Fed minutes Thursday, Warsh in Wyoming Friday and Saturday The Fed publishes the account of its last meeting on Thursday, and the Fed's Kevin Warsh is at the annual central bankers' gathering in Jackson Hole on Friday and Saturday. Listen for whether anyone addresses the thirty-year US government borrowing cost, now around 5.34% and the highest since 2007, while a Cleveland Fed survey has businesses cutting expected inflation to 3.3% from 3.7%. When long rates rise as expected inflation falls, the problem is how many government bonds have to be sold rather than the price of goods, and a rate cut does not fix that.
02 Hyperliquid's revenue-share deal goes live on August 26 From next Wednesday an arrangement between Hyperliquid, Circle and Coinbase starts routing an expected $160 million a year of revenue into buying back the HYPE token. The size and the start date are both written into the deal, so this one is a diary entry rather than a forecast.
03 Crude jumped about $7 in a session with Hormuz live again The US and Iran let their ceasefire lapse and attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz restarted, taking crude from around $83 to near $90 in a single session, according to Opening Bell Daily. Around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through that channel. Cheaper energy has been the main reason to expect inflation to keep falling, so this is the input most likely to put the September rate call back in question.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $64,533, up 0.21% on the day Ethereum sat at $1,911.90 and Solana was the strongest of the majors at $76.81, up 1.11%. Bitcoin's own trading volume fell back to $18.06 billion from $21.66 billion the day before. Nothing on the watchlist moved 5%, the fourth session running.
Citi plans bitcoin custody for about 650,000 wealth clients It is due to launch in the fourth quarter. That would put Citi alongside Schwab, US Bank, BNY Mellon and PNC. Jane Street separately disclosed more than $1 billion in US spot bitcoin funds as of June 30, with $828 million of it in BlackRock's IBIT.
South Korea blocked Polymarket over gambling Korea's media regulator voted on Tuesday to cut off access at home, saying markets on politics, sports and weather amount to gambling. Polymarket replied that it had pulled its Korean-language service and takes no won, and regulators answered that running the venue was the objection. More than thirty jurisdictions now restrict it, and Wall Street proposed 32 sports-betting funds the same week.
Nasdaq wants to trade shares nearly 23 hours a day The plan starts on December 6, pending approval, and adds a 9pm to 4am session in New York five days a week. If it lands, crypto's around-the-clock pitch stops being a difference and a tokenized share starts looking like an ordinary product.
Fear & Greed: 41, Fear That is Tuesday's reading, up ten points from 31 and the biggest one-day jump of this stretch. Today's had not landed when this was written. The index is still in Fear and has not touched neutral in over two weeks.
The Solana vote closes today, and it is the only result anyone gets before tomorrow.
TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what happened and what we make of it; every button you press after that is yours. We are good at reading a room and less good at reading the future, and we stopped pretending otherwise a while back.