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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
A US regulator cleared real American shares to trade on-chain, and by the next morning the owner of the New York Stock Exchange said it was building a venue for it.
REGULATION · Desk

The SEC cleared US stocks to trade on-chain.

An old cast-iron hand bell standing on a cream backdrop, its clapper removed and lying beside it

On Thursday morning the Securities and Exchange Commission signed an order that lets real American shares trade on a public blockchain. The agency calls the arrangement the Innovation Exemption. It is temporary, it is conditional, and it runs five years.

The order lifts two labels. A venue trading tokenized shares no longer has to register as a stock exchange, and the people supplying the shares and cash to its pools no longer count as dealers. Trading runs through an automated market maker, a pool that fills your order against itself instead of matching you with another buyer.

The SEC attached conditions, and they are the substance. A token has to carry the same dividends and the same votes as the share behind it, so synthetics are out. The smart contracts have to be public, auditable and on a chain anyone can join.

The venue also has to halt a token the moment the real stock is halted on its listing exchange. It has to tell the company before listing its stock, and the company can object. The number of tickers is capped and so is the volume.

Two days earlier, the crypto market structure bill had died in the Senate. Congress failed to write the rules, and the regulator wrote a narrower version of them anyway, using powers it already had. Paul Atkins, who chairs the SEC, called it a first step and asked for comment.

On Friday morning Michael Blaugrund of Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, said the exchange is building a system for round-the-clock on-chain trading. He named Avalanche as meeting many of its requirements.

The regulator moved on Thursday and the New York Stock Exchange on Friday. If you hold crypto partly because you expect this plumbing to end up on-chain, that's the first week the incumbents said so out loud. Nobody has traded a share on one of these venues yet.

MACRO · Desk

The Bank of Japan raised rates. Bitcoin rose.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate a quarter point this morning, from 1.0% to 1.25%. The vote was seven to two, and it is the highest Japanese rate in about thirty-one years.

Japan is where the cheap money comes from. Investors borrow yen for almost nothing and buy something that pays more elsewhere, and that money funds a lot of what you own. When Japanese rates rise, the borrowing costs more and some of it gets unwound, in steps rather than a slow drift.

That's four central banks leaning the same way inside a week. The Fed raised on Wednesday, the Bank of England held with a hard edge, and the ECB says it's still tightening.

Bitcoin is up 1.7%, a third green session in a row.

Three days of green candles is not a decoupling. Watch the yen against the dollar and Japan's ten-year bond.

BITCOIN · Desk

BlackRock's fund ended the ETF selling streak.

US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $159 million on Thursday, after $450.4 million left them on Tuesday and another $295.9 million on Wednesday. Tuesday was the biggest single day of withdrawals this cycle.

BlackRock's IBIT took in $183.7 million on its own, and the whole group netted $159 million. So the rest of the group, taken together, saw money leave on the day the run of withdrawals supposedly ended.

Ether funds didn't even get that. Another $39 million left them, a third day of withdrawals in a row.

If you read ETF flows as the institutional bid under bitcoin, that bid is one fund wide this week. That's worth knowing before you read a green line in the flow table as the institutions coming back.

🎲   The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes. Not a poll, a market.
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September? 39%
  
NEW  ·  The bet is whether bitcoin touches $82,500 at any point before the month is out, and the people trading it put that at 39%. Bitcoin is $77,708 this morning, so the level sits about 6% above here with twelve days left to get there. The odds on $82,500 have sat through a Fed rise and a Bank of Japan rise this week and still pay better than a third.
👁   What to Watch
01 The first federal crypto tax bill moved. A House committee voted 38 to 5 to advance it. It exempts crypto payments under $10, and it applies wash-sale rules to crypto for the first time, which ends selling at a loss and buying straight back.
02 Seven Senate Democrats want the crypto talks restarted. Kirsten Gillibrand and six colleagues say the work is not dead and want bipartisan talks before the year ends. A law would be far harder for a future agency chair to undo.
03 Neutrl opened redemptions on its synthetic dollar. Holders of NUSD and sNUSD are paid in USDC at a fixed rate set by reserves the project had already disclosed. One user on X claims about half of deposits are recoverable, unverified.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $77,708, up 1.7%. Ether is $2,489.26 and Solana $105.74. Three green sessions in a row, through two central bank rate rises.
Coinbase wants to be inside your local bank. It is working with a firm called Stablecore to offer custody, trading and stablecoin payments through more than 3,000 US community banks and credit unions. Nothing is live yet.
NEAR jumped 27% in a day because a number crossed a line. Confidential Intents locked value passed $70 million on 15 September, which triggered a snapshot in a milestone program whose reward tokens convert into NEAR.
Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, on the Fed: "Ultimately, we think today’s hike was largely about maintaining credibility in the face of the Fed and, more importantly, the market, losing patience with inflation."
Fear and Greed: 50, Neutral, down one point. That reading is from Thursday and no Friday number has landed. The gauge has sat in the middle of its range all week while two central banks raised rates.
Congress couldn’t pass the law, so the regulator and the New York Stock Exchange went ahead without it.
TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what happened and what we make of it; the buying and the selling are yours to do. We’re good at joining the dots, less good at knowing where the next one lands.
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