The Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, by a vote of ten to two. Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, and Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed voted to raise it another quarter point. Six weeks ago the vote to raise was twelve to nothing.

The statement said the economy is "expanding at a strong pace" and inflation "remains elevated." It says nothing about a cut. Kevin Warsh, the chair, took questions afterwards and the ten-year Treasury yield slipped while he spoke.

Bitcoin rose on the decision and gave the gain back. It was $81,138 at our overnight snapshot, up 0.6% in 24 hours, and it has now risen three days running.

On Polymarket, the betting site, the market on a quarter-point increase in December reads 78% this morning. That December-increase market read 77% before the meeting. Traders had the hike priced before the vote.

So the price sits where it was, with the next meeting six weeks away. Glassnode, which tracks on-chain data, says the average US spot ETF holder paid about $81,500 a coin.

It also counts about 4 million bitcoin held by long-term holders who bought between $85,000 and $118,000. More than half of those coins are under water. If the price climbs toward $85,000, Glassnode expects many of them to sell to get their money back.

Sellers have capped bitcoin between $84,000 and $85,000 four times this year.

Ki Young Ju, who runs the data firm CryptoQuant, reads the same chart the other way. "Those who wanted to sell have likely already sold," he said on Tuesday.

Below the price, the biggest block of buy orders on Binance has moved down to $78,000 to $79,000, about $42 million. If you hold bitcoin, those are the two numbers until December. The sellers are waiting at $85,000 and the buy orders have moved to $78,000.

Alphabet reported its third quarter after the close on Wednesday. Revenue was $127.6 billion, up 25%, and Google Cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion.

Free cash flow was minus $9.07 billion. The company spent more on AI data centers in the quarter than its businesses brought in. The shares fell 11% after hours.

Microsoft rose almost 4% the same evening after its cloud business, Azure, grew 48%.

A tokenized version of Alphabet's shares fell nearly 12% in the same minutes, on a Uniswap pool that handled about $603,000 of trades in five minutes. The stock exchanges were shut for the night, and the token kept trading on a public chain.

If you hold tokenized stocks, earnings night now happens to you in real time, whether or not your broker is open.

Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz's crypto firm, made $323 million in the third quarter. It had lost $85 million in the second.

Most of the profit is paper gains on the bitcoin and other assets Galaxy holds, which rose about 40% over the quarter. That side of the business earned $395 million before interest, tax and depreciation, after losing $78 million the quarter before. A year ago it made $505 million in one quarter and lost $482 million the next.

The steadier money is rent. Galaxy's Helios site in West Texas is leased for 15 years to CoreWeave, the AI cloud company.

The first 133 megawatts were handed over by June, so this was the first full quarter of rent. That business still made a small net loss, and the next 830 megawatts have no tenant.

If you hold GLXY, you own a bitcoin bet and a landlord with one customer.