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GM. This is The Crossover.
This is the 100th issue of The Crossover. Coinbase can now clear its own trades, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, and Bitget is reopening after losing $387.5 million.
Regulation

The CFTC approved Coinbase's own clearing house

A wooden rubber stamp lying on its side on a slate-blue surface, its red face blank

The CFTC, the US regulator that oversees futures markets, has approved Coinbase to run its own clearing house. It is called Coinbase Clearing LLC, and The Block reported the approval overnight.

A clearing house sits between the two sides of every derivatives trade. If you buy a contract and the seller can't pay, the clearing house is the one that has to make you whole. To do that job it holds everyone's collateral and writes its own rulebook.

Earlier this month Coinbase asked the CFTC to approve single-stock perpetual futures, contracts with no expiry date. They were to trade around the clock on weekdays on Coinbase Derivatives and clear through Nodal Clear, an outside clearing house. According to The Block, the new approval lets Coinbase list, broker and clear fully collateralized products in-house. Listing puts a contract on the menu. Brokering takes your order. Clearing guarantees the trade. All three now sit under one owner. A clearing house registered with the CFTC answers to the regulator directly, which is what the approval is for.

Fully collateralized means traders put up the money to cover a contract's worst outcome before the trade starts. For the contracts Coinbase clears itself, Coinbase now holds that collateral and writes those rules.

The report doesn't say which contracts Coinbase Clearing will handle first, or when, and the approval for the clearing house is separate from the approval Coinbase asked for on the stock contracts. If you only buy and hold coins on Coinbase, nothing about your account changes today. If you use its derivatives, the company that takes your order and the company that guarantees it are now the same one. Read its rules before you put real money into them.

Macro

The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high

The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.241% on Monday, a 19-year high, up from 5.18% on Friday. Bitcoin is $83,301 this morning, down 1.4% in 24 hours and lower than any daily reading of the past week.

The level to watch is 5.303%, where the yield stood on June 12, 2007. A close above it would be the highest since May 2002.

Early in Trump's second term, his advisers argued that showing the bond market Washington was serious about deficits would bring long-term rates down without leaning on the Fed. The Wall Street Journal reports that the plan backfired. Inflation is rising and the Fed is raising rates. Tariffs, energy shocks and an investment boom are pushing yields up.

Bitcoin pays no interest, and a 10-year Treasury now pays more than it has at any time since 2007.

On-chain

Bitget reopens bitcoin withdrawals after a $387.5 million hack

Bitget started letting customers withdraw again on Monday, beginning with bitcoin, after the $387.5 million theft from its hot wallets. Ether and USDT withdrawals are still paused. The exchange says it has patched the flaw and that its user protection fund will cover every loss. Chief executive Gracy Chen says Bitget will top the fund back above $300 million this week.

Chen also told The Block that the attacker sent two small test transfers about half an hour before taking the money, probing the exchange's risk controls first.

Chen put the loss near $350 million last Wednesday, so the final figure came in higher. Bitget is promising that no customer loses money, and that promise is only as good as a fund the exchange has to refill itself. If you keep coins on an exchange, the size of that fund is what stands between you and a loss.

The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? 47%
New. Traders on Polymarket give 47% odds that the 10-year Treasury yield touches 5.5% at some point before 2027. It closed Monday at 5.241%, so that needs another quarter of a percentage point, and a separate market on a touch of 5.3% sits at 93%. Both are thinly traded.
What to Watch
Friday's jobs report The Labor Department publishes September's jobs report at 8:30 Friday morning. Traders on Polymarket put the odds of a Fed rate hike on October 28 at about 69%, and a strong number would push that higher.
Brazil's self-custody rule takes effect Thursday Brazil's central bank rule requiring reports on self-custody wallet transfers over $10,000 starts Thursday. It is one of the first economies to track money moving off exchanges into personal wallets.
Bessent's push for a softer Fed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent repeated that he hopes the Fed keeps an open mind on rates. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday she sees economy-wide price pressure from AI-fueled demand, and the Fed next meets October 28.
The Tape
• BTC $83,301, ETH $2,681.27, SOL $118.36 Bitcoin is down 1.41% in 24 hours and Solana is down 3.31%, the weakest of the three. Ether is nearly flat, down 0.15%.
• "A sharp reassessment of AI companies' prospects and the sustainability of their debt could trigger market corrections and spill over to euro area investors and the wider economy." Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, told the European Parliament's economic committee on Monday. The ECB raised its key rates by a quarter point earlier this month.
• LINK up 10.07% to $15.52 It is the only one of the four tokens we track that is up more than 1% today. The Block reported that Chainlink launched CCIP 2.0, its upgraded system for moving tokenized assets between public and private blockchains.
• Fear & Greed: 73, Greed, down 1 point from yesterday The reading and the price figures above come from snapshots taken about an hour apart.
In Pro today
Bitcoin fell four days running as funds bought

The US spot bitcoin funds took in $2.39 billion in the calendar week to Friday 25 September. We keep a daily record of those flows going back to April, and no other week in it is as big. The next biggest was the week of 17 August, at $1.92 billion.

Almost $1 billion of it came on Monday the 21st, the day bitcoin closed at $86,662, its highest close since January. The funds bought on each of the next four days as well: $714.7 million on Tuesday, $346.9 million on Wednesday, $190.7 million on Thursday and $134.5 million on Friday.

Bitcoin closed lower on every one of those four days. It ended Friday at $84,025 and closed yesterday at $83,547, 3.6% below the Monday before. The ether funds took in $689.8 million in the calendar week to 25 September, and ether closed yesterday 3.4% lower than a week earlier.

The week of 17 August is the useful comparison. In the calendar week to 21 August the funds took in $1.92 billion, and bitcoin rose 25% from the Friday before it to the Friday it ended, from $62,829 to $78,495. Last week they took in more, and bitcoin rose 3.6% from Friday to Friday, all of it on the Monday.

When money goes in and the price goes down, somebody sold more than the funds bought. How long this lasts depends on who that was.

Read today’s Pro
The rest of this one is for Pro readers. It picks up where this stops.
Before the bad day comes, find out who holds the money you’ve put on an exchange.
TC
We spent the morning reading about clearing houses, which is not a sentence anyone plans to write. What you do with your money is entirely your call.
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