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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Bitcoin has barely moved in a week, and the most interesting thing in crypto is happening at a dead aluminum smelter in Kentucky.
BITCOIN · Desk

TeraWulf leased its Kentucky power to Anthropic.

In February, TeraWulf paid $200 million for a shut aluminum smelter at Hawesville, Kentucky. A smelter is a very large electrical connection with a building attached, and the connection was what TeraWulf wanted.

That site now carries a twenty-year lease with Anthropic for 401 megawatts of computing load. Coin Bureau puts the contracted revenue over the initial term at roughly $19 billion.

Matthew Sigel, who runs digital asset research at VanEck, put the reason plainly when Anthropic signed a $9 billion deal with Riot. A miner turns electricity into bitcoin. An AI company turns the same electricity into output worth about ten times more per unit of power.

The power is what everyone is short of. Analysts quoted by Coin Bureau expect shortages to hold back 40% of AI data centers by 2027, with four to seven year waits to get connected to the grid. Satya Nadella has said Microsoft's problem is a shortage of what he calls warm shells, meaning buildings already wired and cooled and ready to take server racks.

Bitcoin miners spent a decade buying exactly that, cheaply, in towns nobody else wanted.

Getting new land is the hard part now. In Maysville, on the other side of the state, Delsia Bare and her mother Ida Huddleston turned down $26.48 million for farmland a company wanted for a 2.2-gigawatt data center. TeraWulf never had that conversation, because it already owned the ground and the wires.

For anyone holding bitcoin, this pulls in two directions. Miner income gets steadier and less tied to the coin price. Every megawatt rented to an AI tenant is a megawatt not making bitcoin, and Sigel expects that to make miners bigger sellers for a while before the economics settle it back down.

The share of revenue that arrives as rent is the number to look for in the next round of miner results.

MARKETS · Desk

Matt Hougan calls the flat chart good news.

Bitcoin has sat in the low $60,000s for weeks. In that time Michael Saylor's company sold coins for a fourth time, the Clarity Act got pushed back again, and an AI selloff ran through stocks. None of it moved the price.

Matt Hougan, who runs investments at Bitwise, thinks that is the best news in crypto. His argument is that bear markets end in boredom, and you know one is finished when bad news stops doing damage.

One fact sits awkwardly beside it. Americans have been paying less for bitcoin on Coinbase than the offshore price for ninety days straight, the longest run on record, and that got no reaction either. If you are waiting for the market to tell you something before you buy or sell, it is not going to say anything before Friday.

REGULATION · Desk

The Senate takes up crypto rules September 15.

The Clarity Act has a date. The Senate has set a procedural vote for September 15, the step that decides whether the bill gets floor time at all. Bettors on Polymarket give it a 20% chance of being signed into law this year.

John Gillen, who hosts the Milk Road Show, thinks the low number is the point. The bill has been called dead nine or ten times in Washington, he says, and it is still standing. A Senate that actually moves it would surprise almost everybody.

That is one man's argument. The date is the solid part. The House passed its version in July of last year and the Senate needs sixty votes. If you own anything whose rules depend on Congress rather than on an agency, September 15 is when you find out.

🎲   The Odds
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? 57%
  
-14 PT  ·  Variational is a trading platform that has never issued a token. Bettors still think one arrives before New Year's Eve, but they are fourteen points less sure than they were, and there has been no announcement to explain the change of mind.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? 30%
  
+10 PT  ·  A bet that oil touches $90 at some point this month. Coin Bureau had oil back at $87 earlier in August, which pushed talk of a September rate hike up before it eased again. Power costs money, and the AI buildout needs a great deal of it.
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026? 39%
  
FLAT  ·  Ethereum is $1,874 today, so this is a bet on roughly a third more by the end of December. Wall Street's interest in ether right now is the income from staking it rather than the price, which may be why this one has barely moved.
👁   What to Watch
01 Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole The central bankers meet in Wyoming on Friday and Saturday, and Warsh speaks. He has not said anything clear about September in any public appearance so far, so this is the first real read anyone gets. Coin Bureau expects bitcoin to stay between $61,000 and $65,000 until he does, with the risk tilted lower. A soft speech would push it toward the top of that, a hard one toward the bottom. Nothing else before September is scheduled to do anything at all.
02 Saturday's exchange-flow count Santiment counted roughly 18,300 bitcoin arriving on exchanges over seven days against 4,200 the week before. On August 12 alone, 6,573 arrived. Coins on an exchange are coins that can be sold in one click, so a jump like that usually means somebody is getting ready to sell. One week is a spike. The next weekly count lands Saturday, and if it drops back toward 4,200 then the best evidence anyone has for a fall this month drops back with it.
03 Wednesday's White House meeting On August 19, Trump has a meeting scheduled with executives from crypto firms and prediction-market platforms, and Michael Selig of the CFTC is expected in the room. This one runs through the agencies rather than Congress, and the two paths are moving in parallel. A readout that names a timetable for actual rulemaking would matter more than the fact the meeting happened.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $62,823, down 0.30% on the day Ethereum $1,874.20 and Solana $74.52, both lower too. Nothing on the watchlist moved 5% either way for a second session in a row.
The EU pushed out five crypto platforms for every one it licensed More than 1,700 unlicensed platforms had to stop serving EU users when the MiCA rules took full effect on July 1, against 323 firms holding a valid authorization at the time. Regulators are now warning that moving that many people between platforms at once is an obvious opening for fake destinations.
SafePal leaked its customers' home addresses Names, addresses, phone numbers and order details for around 39,800 customers went out through an order-tracking plugin. Seeds and private keys are reportedly untouched, which is not really the risk. Somebody now holds a list of people who own crypto and where they live. That is the third wallet maker in this run, after Trezor and Coldcard.
Over 19% of PUMP's supply has been burned That is Messari's count, and the mechanism behind it is that half of Pump.fun's revenue goes into buying the token back and destroying it.
Fear & Greed: 34, Fear Sunday's reading, the same 34 as the day before, and the second one in a row that counts as fear. Monday's figure was still unpublished when this went out.
Warsh speaks in Wyoming on Friday, and everything else this week is waiting on him.
TC
This is The Crossover. We connect the dots and tell you what we make of them, and what you do with your own money is entirely your call. Nobody here owns a crystal ball, and the ones for sale are not very good.