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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
The bill you’ve been watching for a week finally has a text, and the Senate votes tomorrow on whether to talk about it at all.
REGULATION · Desk

Senate Republicans released the final crypto bill text

An open grey filing cabinet drawer, a single red tab marking one file inside

On Sunday night Senate Republicans put out what they call the final text of the CLARITY Act. It is the bill that settles which American regulator is in charge of crypto, and on Tuesday the Senate votes on whether to start debating it at all.

They say the new draft carries 126 changes the Democrats asked for. Last week's text carried 114, and Senator Cynthia Lummis said then that it still had no Democrat backing.

The new text also carries ethics language. It tracks a proposal from Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego, and it requires a public official who owns crypto to sell it or put it into a blind trust. The Associated Press reported that Trump agreed to that.

Now go back six days. On 8 September, Republican senators were telling reporters the bill was likely to fail, and Tillis said it would fail unless the White House closed the gap over the ethics provisions. The new text closes that gap, using Tillis's own proposal to do it.

He named the condition and the White House met it.

Tuesday's vote is cloture, which is the Senate deciding whether it is willing to open debate. It isn't passage and it doesn't make anything law. What it tells you is whether Democrats will vote for this bill, because their votes have been the stated obstacle since the end of August.

Traders are not convinced. On Polymarket, where people bet money on real-world outcomes, the chance of the bill being signed into law this year sits at 30%. That's up from 17% when we last showed you the number on 11 September, and most of the move landed after the final text went out.

Tuesday is the first real test of whether this bill happens at all.

ON-CHAIN · Desk

Stellar's tokenized assets doubled. XLM supply rose 2.8%.

Stellar's latest report to the people who hold its token records the strongest run of institutional use the network has had.

Tokenized real-world assets on it doubled to $3 billion. Payment volume rose 68.8% to $16.43 billion. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, which settles most American share trades, picked the network for tokenized-securities trials.

Now the other half of the report. Fees on the network are tiny, and they are neither burned nor paid out to holders. Circulating supply grew 2.8% over the quarter, and four issuers hold 92.5% of the tokenized assets.

The network got busier and the supply of the token got bigger. Adoption and the token aren't the same thing, and this report shows you the machinery that keeps them apart.

BITCOIN · Desk

American bitcoin funds lost $462.7 million last week

Last week held four trading days, not five, because Monday was Labor Day. Over 8, 9, 10 and 11 September the American spot bitcoin funds lost $46.6 million, then $120.2 million, then $282.7 million, then $13.2 million. That comes to $462.7 million.

The ether funds took in $196.9 million net over the same four days. The Friday alone was $216.4 million.

On Sunday we told you more money went into the bitcoin funds than came out, and we aren't taking that back. We were counting seven days from 2 September, and one of them brought in $730.8 million. The trading week started on the 8th.

If you hold bitcoin through a fund, there wasn't a good day in that week.

🎲   The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes. Not a poll, a market.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? 30%
  
+13 PT  ·  The bet is whether the CLARITY Act is signed into law before the end of the year, and the crowd says less than one in three. It read 17% when we last showed it to you on 11 September. Eight of those thirteen points arrived in the last day, after Senate Republicans released the final text.
👁   What to Watch
01 The Fed decides on Wednesday and Thursday. The Federal Reserve meets to set American interest rates. Traders put the chance of a quarter-point rise at 80% this morning.
02 The first fund figures since Friday. Saturday and Sunday were not trading days, so nobody has seen a session since 11 September. Tonight's numbers say whether Friday's ether buying was one desk or a change of mind.
03 Whether the Symbiosis attacker takes the offer. The cross-chain bridge says it recovered 15 bitcoin after an exploit and has offered the attacker 20% to return the rest. Blockaid, a security firm, counted 46.1 billion tokens minted and about $336,000 actually collected.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin is $76,790, down 0.61%. Ether is down 1.63% at $2,483.79 and Solana is down 2.02% at $99.65, back under $100. All four of the coins we track are red.
Nu, the largest digital bank in Latin America, opened in the United States. It launched Nu Global at the same time, an account for people sending money between currencies, and it holds USDC and EURC.
Ether’s MVRV reads 1.09. The measure compares the price to what holders paid on average. It was 1.11 yesterday, and anything over 1 means the average holder is ahead.
Mexican authorities raided a hidden crypto mine. They suspect stolen electricity and money laundering. Reuters says it is the fourth mining site found in that area since early 2025, sitting near a hydroelectric dam.
Fear & Greed: 61, Greed, down 2 points. That’s Sunday’s reading and there isn’t a Monday one yet. Greed drifted lower over a week that went nowhere.
💬   Ask Viv
Ask Viv: Who holds your keys?
Where Should I Store My Crypto?
Buying crypto is only half the job, Viv says. The other half is working out how you’ll protect it, and that comes down to who controls the private keys. In this Ask Viv he goes through the three main ways to hold crypto, what each one asks of you in convenience or in responsibility, and why the recovery phrase is the part he’d guard above all else. He ends on a question he thinks matters more than the one he was asked.
Watch the full Ask Viv
Tuesday tells you whether the Democrats were ever going to vote for it.
TC
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