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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
A brokerage chain two months old is out-earning the chains crypto spent a decade building, and on Sunday night it sold a $29 share for $133.
ON-CHAIN · Desk

Robinhood's chain out-earned Tron, Ethereum and Solana.

Two months ago Robinhood switched on a blockchain of its own. Yesterday it took in more money from ordinary use than any chain in crypto except one, and that one pays people to use it.

The number is $963,612 in fees over twenty-four hours, per DefiLlama. Tron, the old workhorse of cheap dollar transfers, made $586,688. Ethereum made $111,590. Base made $93,001. Solana made $84,702. Put those last three together and Robinhood's chain still earns more than three times as much.

None of it is bought. Most new chains hand out their own token to get the usage numbers up, and Robinhood Chain does not. It also gives a tenth of what it takes to Arbitrum, whose technology it is built on, an expense most rival chains do not carry.

What people are doing on it is trading. $874.8 million changed hands in a day across 5.5 million transactions, a lot of it through a memecoin launchpad, and August was the chain's biggest month so far.

Which brings us to Sunday night. You can buy a token on that chain that stands in for a share in a real company. One memecoin pool ended up holding 31,198 of the 58,714 tokenized Hims and Hers shares that exist. More than half of them, sitting in one pool, on a Sunday.

The token changed hands at $132.64. The real share had closed Friday at $28.84.

Nobody could trade the gap away, because the New York Stock Exchange was shut and the thing the token copies was not for sale. A token that stands in for a share behaves like a share only while somebody can go and buy the share.

So the chain winning on real use is also where the week's worst pricing failure happened. If you hold tokenized stocks, the hours the stock market is closed are the hours worth watching.

BITCOIN · Desk

Strategy started buying bitcoin again after ten weeks.

Strategy, the company Michael Saylor turned into a bitcoin vault, bought 4,603 bitcoin for about $369.7 million. The average price was $80,318 a coin. It is the first sizeable purchase since late June, and Saylor had trailed it weeks ago with a post saying he was back.

The company now holds 845,050 bitcoin, worth over $66 billion. That is more than 4% of every bitcoin that will ever exist, held by one balance sheet.

Here is the part the headlines skipped. The money came from selling $602.8 million of its own stock, and on some measures the amount of bitcoin behind each share barely moved.

A company buying bitcoin with money it earned is new demand. A company buying bitcoin by issuing shares and selling them is closer to arithmetic. Both lift the price. Only one brings money into crypto that was not already there.

REGULATION · Desk

A US appeals court called Kalshi's sports contracts gambling.

On Friday three federal appeals judges ruled, unanimously, that the sports contracts sold by Kalshi are sports betting. Kalshi is the American venue where you buy a contract on whether something happens. It had argued those contracts are financial instruments, answerable to one federal regulator and nobody else.

The court read Kalshi's own advertising back to it. The company had called itself "the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states."

If the ruling holds, Kalshi needs a state license wherever a state asks for one. It also has to stop taking sports bets in the twenty states where online betting is illegal.

It can appeal, and it won this same argument earlier this year in front of a different set of judges. So whether these things are bets or financial instruments is still open, and every prediction market crypto has built is waiting on the answer.

🎲   The Odds
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? 26%
  
-7 PT  ·  Ether is around $2,472, so this is a bet on it gaining about 42% in four months. A quarter of the money still takes it, seven points fewer than a week ago.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? 41%
  
NEW  ·  American crude is back near $90 after the US and Iran exchanged fire. Four in ten think it touches $95 this month, and costlier oil makes the inflation problem harder just as the Fed argues about raising rates.
Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? 32%
  
-2 PT  ·  Solana is around $103, so this is the bet it loses another third before the year is out. About one in three still takes it, barely changed on the week.
👁   What to Watch
01 Today's job openings and factory numbers. Two reports land this morning. One counts how many jobs American employers are advertising. The other is a survey asking factory managers whether orders are picking up or slowing. They are the first hard American numbers since Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, and traders now put a September rate rise at roughly two in three. A soft pair pulls that back. A firm pair makes it the base case.
02 Solana money and Solana bets are pointing opposite ways. Solana funds took in $60.91 million in one day, their best of the year, and Schwab opened direct Solana access to 39.9 million brokerage accounts. At the same time traders are paying more to bet against Solana than against anything else we track, well above what that has cost on average over the past week. One of those two groups is about to look silly.
03 Whether USDC shrinks for a third day running. The supply of USDC fell $642 million on Monday, after falling $319 million on Sunday. Tether barely moved. USDC has been taking share all year, so two declines in a row is the first real wobble in that story. A third would mean it has stopped being a trend.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $78,698, up 0.89%. Ether is at $2,472 and Solana at $103.34, up 1.65% and 0.96%. Everything we track rose on the day the odds of a September rate rise went to about two thirds, the ten-year Treasury yield hit a cycle high and oil went back through $90.
Bitcoin's daily active addresses fell to 524,000, against a seven-day average of 630,900. That is the second reading below trend and it is deeper than the first. Fewer people using the network while the price rises means the buying is coming from balance sheets, not from people moving coins around.
American money supply hit a record $23.22 trillion in July. It rose $102.8 billion on the month, the twenty-seventh monthly rise in a row. The price of money is going up and the quantity of it is going up at the same time, and hard assets have historically cared more about the second.
Robbie Mitchnick of BlackRock says US debt has passed $40 trillion. He argues that backdrop is pushing some investors toward bitcoin as cover against government finances. The argument is two years old. The interesting part is who is making it now.
Fear & Greed: 62, Greed, down 7 points. That is the 31 August reading, the freshest one there is. The mood cooled seven points on a quiet day and then everything went up.
Watch what the tokenized stocks do next weekend, when the exchange they copy is closed again.
TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what we see and why we see it; the buying and the selling is yours to do. We read markets for a living, not tea leaves, and we have never pretended otherwise.
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