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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
The brokerage app your friends use is buying stakes in the exchanges it sends its orders to, and an analyst has just repriced the stock on the blockchain it switched on in July.
MARKETS · Desk

Robinhood is buying the exchanges it uses

Robinhood struck a multiyear deal on Tuesday with Crypto.com and with OG.com, the prediction platform Crypto.com spun out earlier this year.

It will start sending event contracts through OG's exchange and clearing house, which the US derivatives regulator oversees. And it is taking a minority stake in both companies. Citadel Securities valued OG at $5 billion when it invested in July.

An event contract is a bet on whether a thing happens, from an election result to a jobs number. Robinhood says they are its fastest growing product line by revenue, and its users had traded more than 16 billion of them in 2026 by early June.

Robinhood now sends the order to OG and owns a slice of the company that fills it. That is a different business from selling people stocks.

The same shift is running a layer underneath. Robinhood Chain went live in early July, an in-house blockchain built to trade tokenized versions of real shares. Two months on it holds $900.4 million of deposits, moves $10.4 billion of trading a week and brings in $28.5 million of weekly revenue, by DefiLlama's count.

A stock-trading app built that in ten weeks. Mark Palmer at StoneX put a Buy on the shares with a $170 target, about 45% above where they trade, and named the chain and the prediction markets as his reasons.

Kalshi is a rival venue selling the same kind of contract, and a federal appeals court has already ruled that the sports contracts Kalshi sells are sports betting rather than financial instruments. That fight is not finished.

If the ruling stands, every venue in this deal faces a state-by-state licensing problem, and Robinhood has just bought part of two of them.

ON-CHAIN · Desk

Visa put on-chain lenders behind its cards

Visa is now working with Credit Coop, an on-chain lender, to cover what stablecoin card issuers owe it each day. A company issuing one of those cards has to pay Visa before its own customers have paid it, and that gap gets covered with idle cash or expensive borrowing.

The lender hands those issuers stablecoin credit lines. Visa supplies the settlement data, and the contracts release the money and take it back as customer payments arrive.

Credit Coop has financed more than $2.5 billion this way since 2023, across 3,000 borrows and 9,000 repayments, with no defaults. More lenders have joined since. Borrowing costs on some programs have fallen by as much as 30%.

Visa now runs more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programs and settles over $20 billion a year through them, up fifteenfold. The biggest number on stablecoin payments now comes from the card network, not from crypto.

BITCOIN · Desk

Strategy skipped bitcoin and bought its own shares

Strategy is the software company that holds more bitcoin than any other. It told the SEC last week that it bought no bitcoin and sold no stock.

It spent $176.3 million buying back its own preferred shares instead, the STRC stock it sells to income investors, and doubled that buyback program from $1 billion to $2 billion. It still holds 845,050 bitcoin and $6.5 billion in dollars.

For four years the story was a company that turned every dollar it raised into bitcoin. Last week it turned its dollars into its own paper. Either it thinks its own shares are cheaper than bitcoin, or it has run out of cheap ways to raise money.

Strive, another company that holds bitcoin on its balance sheet, bought 1,375 over the same stretch. Companies have not stopped buying. Strategy just sat out a week.

🎲   The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes. Not a poll, a market.
Will Robinhood Chain launch a token by December 31, 2026? 20%
  
NEW  ·  The bet is whether Robinhood Chain issues a token of its own before the year is out. Traders put that chance at 20%, and about $9,000 has traded on the question, so it is a thin market. Everything in today's lead says the chain is working, and none of it has changed anyone's mind about a token.
👁   What to Watch
01 Canary's staked Tron fund opens The fund, ticker TRXS, was due to start trading on Cboe today. It pays staking rewards to holders, which no US bitcoin or ether fund does, so its first day says whether Americans want yield in a fund.
02 Hunter Biden's $LAPTOP launches on Base A billion tokens, 30% held by the founders, 2% airdropped to people who lost money on $TRUMP. Coinbase and Base both declined to promote a launch on their own chain.
03 Today's crypto fund flows US spot funds report yesterday's buying and selling this afternoon. Ether funds took in $215 million last week, down from $816 million, and a third weak week makes it a pattern.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $78,768, down 0.6% on the day. Ether at $2,496 and Solana at $103.76 barely moved, and bitcoin has spent the week between $77,300 and $81,300.
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold is +0.56, the highest since 2020. Coin Metrics puts its correlation with the Nasdaq and with the dollar near zero, and measured a 2.32% fall in the half hour after the August jobs report. Gold does not drop 2% because more people found work.
Bitmine now owns 5.93 million ether. That is 4.9% of every ether in existence, after it added another 28,086 last week.
A bug in shared Cosmos software was used to drain at least six networks. The fix was written in May and merged without fuss. Nesa watched about a quarter of its token supply arrive on Ethereum in a single transaction, and has given no restart date since August.
Fear and Greed: 69, Greed, down two points. That is Tuesday's reading. Today's has not landed yet.
Robinhood Chain did not exist ten weeks ago and now moves $10.4 billion a week.
TC
This is The Crossover. We do the digging and tell you what we make of it; the buying and the selling stays with you. We are reasonable at explaining what already happened, and no better than you at the rest.
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