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GM. This is The Crossover.
Bitcoin is back above $80,000 after oil fell, and one of its biggest miners spent the summer selling.
Bitcoin

Riot sold 10,599 bitcoin and signed an AI lease

A worn miner's pickaxe hung up on a single steel hook

Riot Platforms is one of the largest listed bitcoin miners in the US. Its third-quarter report says it sold 10,599 bitcoin in three months and held 2,418 at the end of September, down from 11,380 in June.

Over the first nine months of the year it sold 20,264 bitcoin, for about $1.5 billion. Riot also said it has signed a 15-year, $28 billion lease to host an AI lab's computers at its site in Corsicana, Texas. It didn't name the lab.

Last quarter Riot sold far more bitcoin than it mined, and now it is renting its site to an AI company. Its quarterly profit fell to $4 million from $104.5 million a year earlier.

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded the exchange BitMEX and now runs the fund Maelstrom, published an essay overnight on the big AI share listings. SpaceX is already listed, Anthropic has filed to list and he expects OpenAI to follow. He says each sells a small slice of its shares first, and insiders can sell theirs in the months after.

By his count, shares worth about 83% of Anthropic could come up for sale by June 2027. If the company lists at $1.5 trillion, buyers would have to find about $1.2 trillion just to hold the price where it started.

Hayes thinks the share prices will sag instead. Then lenders get nervous about AI, banks lend less, and there are fewer dollars around for crypto.

His fund is staying out of the market for now. He also expects central banks to print money in the end, and he tells bitcoin holders to be patient.

If you hold bitcoin, a miner with an AI offer now has a reason to sell coins it once kept. And if Hayes is right, the AI listings will take in money that might have come to crypto.

 

Strategy's STRC stock touched $100 again

STRC, the dividend-paying preferred stock Michael Saylor's Strategy sells to pay for bitcoin, touched $100 on Wednesday for the first time since May. Strategy has said it doesn't intend to sell new STRC below $100 a share.

It got there after about $2.25 billion of buybacks by Strategy between July and November 1.

Between April and June, Strategy raised $5.46 billion selling STRC and spent it on bitcoin. Between July and September, with the stock under $100, it sold none. It has room to sell another $17.51 billion.

Its latest filing reports no new sales. If STRC stays at $100, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin can raise money to buy more, and the next filing will say whether it has.

On-chain

Crédit Mutuel Arkéa confirmed the theft ZachXBT flagged

Crédit Mutuel Arkéa, a French banking group, confirmed on Wednesday that attackers moved money out of its own account. It's the theft ZachXBT, the on-chain investigator, flagged on Tuesday without naming the victim.

The bank says the attackers got in through an outside service provider's platform and sent the money to other financial institutions. From there it may have been turned into crypto. Arkéa wouldn't confirm the reported €118 million ($133 million) but called it the right order of magnitude.

Some of the money has been blocked, the bank says, and customers' assets weren't touched.

On Sunday traders cheered a wallet they took for a whale buying the ether dip. ZachXBT says it was moving about $63 million of this money. A large purchase on-chain tells you that coins moved, and nothing about whose they were.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? 47%
Down 32 pts. The bet is whether bitcoin trades as low as $75,000 at any point in November. Traders on Polymarket, a betting market, put the chance of a dip to $75,000 at 47%. That chance was 79% two days ago with bitcoin at $76,847 on our reading, and bitcoin is now $80,355, about 7% above $75,000.
🔭 What to Watch
Wednesday's bitcoin fund figure. Investors took $115.6 million out of US bitcoin funds on Tuesday, a third day running, from Grayscale's fund as well as BlackRock's. Wednesday's figure covers the day bitcoin crossed $80,000, and it shows whether fund investors were buying.
Polygon weighs a fork to take back stolen coins. Polygon's governance call today takes up a proposal to change the chain's rules and move about 70.5 million stolen POL, roughly $6.5 million, from the thieves to Polymarket and Binance. The sum is small, but a large chain would rewrite balances because two companies asked.
Zcash upgrades tonight. Zcash is due to switch on its NU7 upgrade overnight, cutting the time between blocks from 75 seconds to 25. It arrives days after the committee that funds Zcash's developers dropped a plan to hand about 98,000 ZEC to miners.
📈 The Tape
• Bitcoin $80,355, up 3.4% in 24 hours. Ether $2,418 (up 5.5%) and solana $95.71 (up 3.3%) at our 06:01 UTC reading. It's our first daily reading above $80,000 since October 29. It came the day crude oil fell more than 8%, as traders bet on US talks with Iran.
• Democrats won the House as well as the Senate. French Hill, who wrote the House's crypto market-structure bill, loses the chair of the Financial Services Committee. House Democrats are discussing a broader bill built on Maxine Waters' framework, with more of the oversight going to the SEC.
• Wallets tied to Trump Media sent 4,259 bitcoin to Crypto.com. That is about 30% of the bitcoin the company disclosed holding at the end of July. Arkham, which labels wallets, tags the two senders as collateral backing Trump Media's debt. The coins moved to an exchange; whether they were sold isn't known.
• Lyn Alden, the investment researcher, on bitcoin as a hedge against money printing: "There's less of a screaming reason to go out and sell treasuries and buy gold or bitcoin when that dilution rate is smaller." Her sum is money-supply growth minus what a 10-year Treasury pays: about 4.5% a year in the 2010s, about 0.8% now.
• Fear & Greed: 50, Neutral, up 16 on the day. It's the first reading out of Fear since October 29. It covers Wednesday, across which bitcoin went from $77,052 to about $80,460 on our readings.
The October jobs report lands on Friday morning, and we’ll have Wednesday’s fund figure for you before it does.
TC
This is The Crossover. We read the quarterly reports so you can skip them; what you do with your own coins is up to you and nobody else. Nobody has offered us $28 billion for the spare room, and we’d want to read the lease first.
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