Earlier this year, thieves linked stolen debit cards to US accounts on Polymarket and tried to move at least $10 million through them. Polymarket is the venue where you buy a contract on whether something happens, and the price of that contract is the number you see quoted as the odds.

At one point more than 80% of the deposits going through one of its payment processors were rejected as fraudulent. The normal rate across the payments industry is about 1%. Employees noticed and raised it.

The Wall Street Journal, which interviewed current and former staff and read their text messages, reports that chief executive Shayne Coplan told them to keep growing and pay a fine if regulators found out.

Polymarket has spent this year pushing into the United States, and it is doing that ahead of a possible share sale to the public. A betting venue that takes card deposits is a money-movement business, and one rejecting four of every five card payments is a business fraudsters have found and are working.

Fixing it costs Polymarket growth. That means harder identity checks, slower sign-up and fewer new accounts, landing in the quarters you least want them before you sell shares.

What this changes for you is small and specific. The odds quoted everywhere, our own box further down included, are prices set by real money on a real venue. That is still the best reason to trust them.

But Polymarket is also a company with a listing to protect and a compliance record a regulator is going to read. If a state or federal regulator restricts American access while that gets worked out, the users leave and the market behind the number gets thinner.

Canary Capital has filed a second amendment to its plan for a SEI exchange-traded fund, and the fund wants to stake about 90% of the SEI it holds. BitGo would keep the coins and it is expected to trade on Cboe BZX. The ticker and the fee are both still blank.

SEI is a mid-sized blockchain, well outside the handful of coins that already have a fund of their own.

Staking is the part to watch. A fund that stakes earns the network's reward on nearly everything it holds, so the thing pays its holders on top of whatever the coin does.

If this clears, it is the shape every mid-sized chain behind SEI will copy. And a fund staking 90% of a large holding takes that supply out of circulation for as long as it holds it.

Bitcoin's weekly close cleared its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. That average is the price of the last year smoothed into one line, and it is what people point at when they argue about whether a long fall is over. Alex Thorn, who runs firmwide research at Galaxy, said reclaiming it has historically been strong confirmation that the bear market has already hit its low.

Dan Tapiero, who runs the fund 50T, spent the weekend arguing the low is already behind us.

Bitcoin was below $76,000 on Tuesday, its lowest in a month. Two central banks raised rates inside those same seven days. The Federal Reserve went a quarter point on 16 September and the Bank of Japan went a quarter point on 18 September.

Bitcoin is $81,233 this morning, up about 1%. We will know next week whether last week's close was a fluke.