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GM. This is The Crossover.
Traditional finance spent the weekend moving toward crypto, and bitcoin is at $86,478, up 2% in a day.
On-chain

OKX and the New York Stock Exchange's parent company filed to trade tokenized shares of 63 companies

A rolled share certificate held with a red rubber band

OKX, the crypto exchange, has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to trade tokenized shares of 63 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg reported. The filing comes from OKXICE LLC, a joint venture between OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, the company that owns the NYSE.

A tokenized share is a crypto token that stands for one real share. The filing says each token must carry the full rights of the stock behind it, including dividends and the vote. That separates these from the copies that have traded onchain until now, which followed a stock's price and gave the holder nothing else.

Each of the 63 companies gets 30 days before trading begins to opt out. The platform can't launch until that period ends and other requirements are met.

Last month the SEC cleared the way for blockchain-based securities to trade in the US under a temporary exemption framework, and the OKXICE filing follows it. Because the exemption is temporary, the rules covering these tokens could change later.

We haven't seen the filing itself. The details above come from Bloomberg's account of it, as passed along on X, so treat the number 63 and the opt-out period as reported rather than confirmed.

If the SEC approves, you could buy a Wall Street stock with the same wallet and app you use for crypto, and the exchange that lists the stock would be a partner in selling it. Crypto companies have built tokenized stocks for a while without the stock exchange's involvement. What to watch over the next 30 days is how many of the 63 companies opt out, because that will show how the companies feel about their shares trading on a crypto exchange.

DeFi

Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick calls Aave a bank and puts a $3,500 target on it for 2030

Geoffrey Kendrick, who runs digital-assets research at Standard Chartered, has put a $3,500 price target on Aave for 2030. Aave is a lending protocol where people deposit crypto to earn interest and others borrow against theirs.

"If this is TradFi [traditional finance], I'd say Aave is a bank. So Aave is Standard Chartered," he said. Morpho, a rival lending protocol, is "more like a platform for asset managers. Kind of like a BlackRock."

He also argued an exploit can leave a protocol safer for the money coming in afterward. "Issues like the Kelp DAO incident in some ways make the post-incident reality safer for money that's going in," he said.

If you lend or borrow on Aave, a major bank's research head now sizes it up as a bank. A target four years out is a forecast, and we haven't seen a published research note behind it.

 

S&P Global Ratings launched a risk framework for onchain lending vaults

S&P Global Ratings, the credit-rating company, has launched a framework for judging the risk in onchain lending vaults, The Block reported. A vault is a pool of deposited crypto that a manager, called a curator, puts to work in lending markets. The curator decides which markets the deposits go into.

Deposits in these vaults have reached $10 billion, up from $1.5 billion two years ago, according to the report. S&P will look at seven kinds of risk: credit, liquidity, curator, blockchain, protocol, security and governance. Ratings for individual vaults are still to come.

If you put money in a vault, the framework is a checklist you can use now, before any ratings arrive. Ask who runs it, what it lends against and where the code could break.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? 34%
Down 8 pts. This is a bet on whether the 10-year Treasury yield touches 5.5% at any point before 2027. When we showed you the 5.5% bet on 29 September it stood at 47%, and it has fallen to 34%, including 8 points over the last two days. The yield ended last week near 5.3%, so the 5.5% bet needs a rise of about 0.2 points.
🔭 What to Watch
The 10-year Treasury yield, as US bond trading resumes The 10-year yield is the rate the US government pays to borrow for ten years. It ended last week near 5.3%, and a fall today would show the weak jobs report reaching long-term borrowing costs.
Derive's move to Ethereum, due Tuesday Derive, an onchain options exchange, is due to move onto Ethereum on Tuesday, October 6. Its governance vote closed over the weekend and we haven't seen the result.
Farside's US bitcoin fund figures Farside, which tracks money going into and out of US spot bitcoin funds, last reported Thursday, October 1, with $102.7 million in. We still don't have Friday's figure.
📈 The Tape
• BTC $86,478, ETH $2,724.64, SOL $121.22 Bitcoin is up 1.99% in 24 hours, ether is up 1.25% and Solana is up 0.95%. Bitcoin's price is the highest of the ten daily readings we've taken since September 26.
• Binance will require Brazilian users to give the purpose and counterparty of cross-border crypto transfers from November 1 Withdrawals can't be submitted until the questionnaire is done, and Binance will report the transfers to Brazil's central bank each month. Transfers between Brazilian residents aren't affected.
• Starknet's STRK token has jumped more than 50% Traders credit a mainnet upgrade and the launch of a strkBTC faucet. They're split on whether it's a real breakout or a short-lived pump, and complaints about token dilution and thin revenue haven't gone away.
• Fear & Greed: 70, Greed, up 5 points from yesterday It's the first rise after two days of falls, from 72 to 67 to 65.
Ask Viv
Ask Viv: Is crypto still worth getting into?
Is Crypto Still Worth Getting Into?
Bitcoin is more than 15 years old and the market has already been through several booms and crashes, so have you missed it? In this Ask Viv, Viv says the question is too broad to answer as asked, because Bitcoin, a stablecoin and a small speculative token are very different things. He’s frank about the risks, and for many people he thinks the first step shouldn’t be buying anything at all.
Watch the full Ask Viv
US bond trading resumes this morning, and bitcoin holders will be watching where the 10-year yield opens.
TC
We read filings for a living and still can’t tell you what a market will do with them. What you do with your money is your call.
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