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GM. This is The Crossover.
MSCI pushed bitcoin’s biggest corporate buyer out of its indexes on Wednesday night, and the question this morning is who’s left to buy.
Bitcoin

MSCI dropped Strategy and Metaplanet from its indexes

A stack of white paper half shredded into strips on a blue background

Late on Wednesday MSCI, the company whose indexes the big index funds copy, published its November review. Strategy, Michael Saylor's bitcoin-holding company, is out from 1 December. Its Japanese equivalent Metaplanet is out too, and so is Yellow Cake, a British company that holds uranium.

MSCI's reason is a new rule for companies it thinks look more like investment funds than businesses. Strategy had called the rule "discriminatory" against companies that hold digital assets. It lost the argument.

A fund that copies an MSCI index has to sell whatever leaves it. Strategy itself has warned that index funds would have to sell about $2.8 billion of its shares, and JPMorgan put the figure at $8.8 billion if other index providers follow.

The shares fell 2.5% after hours. SharpLink, which holds ether, went on MSCI's watchlist.

The funds sell Strategy's shares, and Strategy keeps its 850,364 coins. The risk sits in how it pays for them. It sells new shares and preferred stock, and a share that index funds are obliged to dump is a harder thing to sell more of.

Strategy had already slowed its buying. In the week to 8 November it spent $81.9 million on 1,036 bitcoin and $188.3 million buying back its own preferred shares. By Ecoinometrics' count Strive, the other large corporate buyer, has gone from more than 6,000 bitcoin a week to 29.

Bitcoin is $73,476 this morning, about $2,000 below the $75,456 Strategy paid on average. If you hold it, the two companies that bought the most of it over the past two years are buying almost none now, and from 1 December the biggest of them has index funds selling its shares at the same time as it tries to sell new ones.

Ethereum

BitMine lost $6.3 billion on ether in a year

BitMine, the company Tom Lee chairs and the largest corporate holder of ether, reported a net loss of $6.3 billion for its fiscal year to 31 August. Most of it came from the price of ether, which fell about 44% over the year, from about $4,390 to about $2,466.

At the end of August it held about 5.9 million ETH, 3.97 million of them bought during the year. It has kept buying since, and last week reported 6.07 million.

It's the first full year of results from a company built to buy ether and hold it, and the number is a loss. Ether is $2,043 this morning, 17% below where BitMine's year ended.

If you own ether, its biggest steady buyer pays for coins by selling its own shares, and it has just told those shareholders it lost $6.3 billion.

Markets

Deutsche Bank and Israel Discount Bank opened to crypto

On Wednesday Deutsche Bank switched on its crypto custody service for paying clients, institutions and companies in Europe. It holds bitcoin, ether and stablecoins for them.

The same day Israel Discount Bank said its customers will be able to buy, hold and sell bitcoin and ether inside its mobile app from 26 November. Bank Leumi announced a similar service first but isn't expected to run it before early 2027.

Nomura, Japan's largest brokerage, is going the other way. Bloomberg reported that it's exploring a sale of Laser Digital, its crypto arm, and has talked to Marex Group among others. The unit's losses pushed Nomura's European business into a quarterly loss, and Nomura may still keep it.

If you hold crypto, the buyers now arriving are bank customers who come a few at a time, and the ones leaving were companies that bought billions at a go.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026? 89%
Up 16 pts. The bet is that Predict.fun, a prediction-market app, puts out its own token before the end of November. When we last showed you this market on Sunday it read 63%; traders on Polymarket (the prediction market) had it at 73% on Tuesday morning and 89% this morning, with about $253,000 wagered. The separate market on a token by 15 November sits at 31%, so they expect it in the second half of the month.
🔭 What to Watch
Nvidia's board decision on Jensen Huang. Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia's board is meeting, has hired a search firm to find a successor and is discussing an interim chief executive. On Hyperliquid, bets on Nvidia's share price fell as much as 10%, against 8% for the shares after hours.
The US bond market reopens after Veterans Day. The ten-year Treasury touched a 5% yield on Tuesday and hasn't traded since, and Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to keep raising rates past December. On Polymarket a quarter-point rise in December is an 86% bet. The separate half-point market reads 10%.
Wednesday's and Thursday's bitcoin fund figures. Investors took $95 million out of the US bitcoin funds on Tuesday, the fourth day in a row of money leaving, on Farside's figures. A first day of money coming in since 4 November would be the first sign of US buyers returning.
📈 The Tape
• Bitcoin $73,476, down 0.4% in 24 hours. Ether $2,043 (down 1.1%) and solana $82.85 (down 0.3%) at our 05:45 UTC reading. Bitcoin held between $73,406 and $74,536 all of Wednesday, and no hourly reading has been below $73,000 since Tuesday afternoon's $72,957.
• $14.2 billion of stablecoins left the market in 30 days. That's Glassnode's count and the biggest fall since June 2022, with Tether and USDC losing nearly $11 billion of it between them. Stablecoins are the dollars traders keep on exchanges before they buy crypto, and on DefiLlama's figures both coins shrank again on Wednesday, the third day in a row.
• Zcash fell below $965, down 26% in a week. That's about three times bitcoin's fall over the same seven days, and about 43% below the price above $1,680 it reached in late September. It's $980 this morning and still among the most-searched coins on CoinGecko.
• Coinbase now lets you cap what an AI agent can trade. From Wednesday, anyone who has connected ChatGPT, Claude or another assistant to a Coinbase account can set a dollar limit per trade, a 24-hour trading cap and an automatic stop if the portfolio falls past a set percentage. The limits sit on Coinbase's servers, where the agent can't change them.
• Fear & Greed: 28, Fear, down 1 on the day. The reading covers Wednesday, a flat day for bitcoin, and nothing since midnight.
The index funds start selling Strategy’s shares on 1 December; who buys bitcoin between now and then is the open question.
TC
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