How crypto cycles have worked
Lesson 2 of 5
By the end of this lesson you’ll be able to date four of bitcoin’s big falls, say what came with each one, explain why the halving story carries less than people think, and know what a cycle can and can’t tell you about what you hold.
Four falls, from one series
Crypto from Zero lesson 5 gave four of bitcoin’s falls of more than half, in Coinbase’s daily closing prices, as published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here they are again, on one dated line.
Each fall, from its peak to its lowest close so far. The same series holds other falls of more than half, including 53 percent from April to July 2021, which this lesson leaves out.
$19,650 on 16 December 2017 to $3,183 on 15 December 2018: 84 percent.
$10,380 on 14 February 2020 to $4,980 on 12 March 2020: 52 percent.
$67,510 on 8 November 2021 to $15,756 on 21 November 2022: 77 percent.
$124,720 on 5 October 2025 to $58,586 on 30 June 2026, the lowest close so far: 53 percent so far.
On 5 November 2026 bitcoin closed at $76,153, 39 percent below its 2025 peak.
These dates record what bitcoin did and set no schedule. The 2025 peak may never come back, and the record promises nothing about any coin from here.
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