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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
The bill everyone has been waiting on changed shape on Wednesday, and the part that changed is the part aimed at DeFi.
REGULATION · Desk

Lummis rewrote the crypto bill before Tuesday's vote

On Wednesday evening Senator Cynthia Lummis put out new text for the CLARITY Act, five days before the Senate votes on whether to debate it. The new text would make trading protocols that are not genuinely decentralized register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the agency that already oversees futures and commodities.

That requirement is new, and it applies to the firms that have spent a year lobbying for this bill. CLARITY is the law that would split US crypto between two regulators, the SEC for securities and the CFTC for everything else. A front end that takes a fee and routes an order would now need a registration it does not have.

Tuesday's vote only decides whether the Senate is willing to start debating the bill. The Senate has not managed that once this year.

Republicans hold 53 seats and need 60, so at least seven Democrats have to cross.

Both sides have taken the fight to senators' home states. The advocacy group Stand With Crypto counted close to 50,000 calls and emails to Congress from its members in August. Its Georgia chapter has been leaning on Senator Raphael Warnock, who voted against advancing the bill in committee.

Community banks are buying television ads in the same states. What they are fighting about is stablecoin rewards.

If a dollar token can legally pay a yield, savers move money out of an account paying almost nothing and into a token paying more. The banks lose the cheapest funding they have. That fight, plus unresolved arguments over ethics rules and money laundering, is what has kept 60 votes out of reach.

So Tuesday tells you whether a US rulebook is two years away or five. And the text the Senate would be debating asks more of DeFi than the one the industry spent the year asking for.

ON-CHAIN · Desk

Pump.fun let you pair a memecoin with Boeing

Pump.fun turned on a feature called Custom Pairs. Until now a new token on the biggest memecoin launchpad traded against Solana or a dollar token. A creator can now choose from 93 quote assets through xStocks and Sunrise, and launch something priced against tokenized Nvidia instead.

Pump.fun and Sunrise put 20 more tokenized stocks on Solana the same day, issued by Backpack Securities. Boeing, Alibaba, Costco, Dell, Trump Media and Hims are among them.

Creator fees run from 0.05% to 1% and arrive in the paired asset, so a token launched against tokenized Nvidia pays its creator in tokenized Nvidia. Tokenized stocks have spent two years inside brokerages. They are now on the venue retail already uses, and nobody yet knows whether they trade deeply enough to hold up the other side of a pair.

MARKETS · Desk

Bitwise is closing its Dogecoin ETF

Bitwise is shutting BWOW, its Dogecoin ETF, less than a year after it opened. Trading ends on 14 October. Anyone still holding is paid in cash on 22 October at the fund's value the day before, and has to do nothing to get it.

About $722,000 was left in the fund. That does not cover the cost of staying listed, so Bitwise is not waiting to find out whether the money turns up late. It is the first US altcoin ETF to wind down.

For two years the working assumption in crypto has been that a fund listed in New York is what brings the money in. Dogecoin got one and the money never came.

Keep that in mind the next time someone writes up a filing for a smaller coin as a reason to buy.

🎲   The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes. Not a poll, a market.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? 17%
  
FLAT  ·  This is a bet on whether the CLARITY Act becomes law before the end of the year. It read 17% when we last showed you this market on 7 September and it reads 17% now, flat through the new bill text and through the vote date landing. The people betting on the CLARITY Act have not changed their minds about its chances this year, whatever Tuesday does.
👁   What to Watch
01 The August inflation report. It publishes this morning, and forecasters expect core prices up about 0.2% on the month. A tenth of a point either side decides whether the Fed is forced to raise rates on 16 September or is given cover to wait.
02 Citadel Securities and the prediction markets. Citadel wrote to regulators asking the SEC to oversee event contracts tied to US public companies, rather than letting venues self-certify them with the CFTC. It is one of the biggest market makers in the world, so the letter carries weight.
03 Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade. Developers have tentatively set it to go live on the Sepolia test network on 6 October. The date for the main network is still open, and a clean test run is what would fix it.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin is $76,812, down 1.88% on the day. Ether is $2,450 and Solana is $98.96, both lower. Nothing in this week's crypto news has moved a price.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates and said oil was the reason. It put its three key rates up a quarter point, effective 16 September. The release says conflict in the Middle East “continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.”
The 30-year US Treasury yield reached 5.36% on Wednesday. That is the rate underneath 30-year mortgages and long-dated company borrowing. The same day, the Treasury program built to hold it down had $6 billion to spend and could only buy $5.2 billion of bonds.
Raoul Pal is not reading the bond selloff the way everyone else is. “The bond panic is noise. The real signal is margins expanding while hiring stays flat.” Company profits are widening while companies stop hiring, and he thinks that tells you more than the yield does.
Fear & Greed: 69, Greed, up three points. That is Thursday's reading. Friday's had not landed when we wrote this, and greed at 69 with bitcoin under $77,000 is an odd pair.
Read the new bill text before Tuesday, because that is the version the Senate is actually voting on.
TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what moved and what we make of it; the decision is yours alone. We read bills and balance sheets, not tea leaves.
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