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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
The loudest argument in crypto this weekend was whether anything besides Bitcoin is worth owning.
ETHEREUM · Desk

Pomp says everything but Bitcoin is dead.

Anthony Pompliano put it as bluntly as it can be put: crypto outside of Bitcoin is dead, the projects should be shut down, and the talent should go build something else. Milk Road spent its Sunday putting that claim to people who disagree, and the answers are better than the question.

Austin Arnold of Altcoin Daily made his case with a taxi. Uber burned cash for years subsidizing rides to lock in the market, then raised prices once everyone was hooked. He argues Ethereum is running the same playbook: grab adoption through L2s and stablecoins first, and hold the fee switch (its option to start charging for itself) for later.

The venture investor went further. Bitcoin proved the internet can create a store of value, and on the internet the first success rarely stays alone. Facebook did not stop Twitter or TikTok. On that frame, ETH is the second internet-native store of value, and the one you can build on.

Solana brought receipts instead of theory. On its best day the HYPE token did $107 million of volume on Solana, more than it did on Coinbase and Binance, and tokenized SpaceX stock pulled $500 million in its first week of trading there.

Now the cold water. The money coming back into crypto is arriving through Bitcoin ETFs, and the IMF puts the stablecoin pool at about $300 billion, flat for a year. The cash cushion on-chain is not growing. New buyers for a thousand alts have to come from somewhere.

If you hold anything besides Bitcoin, this argument is about you.

We think Pomp is right about most of the field and wrong about the best of it. The strong projects look fine. The long tail does not. Watch whether the ETF money starts to spread past Bitcoin and ETH.

MACRO · Desk

The US lost 23,000 jobs. Crypto rallied.

Friday's jobs report showed the US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, against expectations of an 83,000 gain. That is the first outright contraction in months. June was revised down, and unemployment ticked higher.

Markets read it fast: the dollar sold off, Treasury yields fell, and bitcoin popped back over $65,000 on the day. CoinBureau put it plainly. The single biggest weight on crypto these past eight weeks was the chance of a September rate hike, and that chance just took a tumble.

Keep one hand on the brake, though. An economy losing jobs is not a healthy one. If the layoffs pick up from here, the worry stops being a rate hike and becomes a recession, and recessions hit crypto along with everything else. How much more this rally becomes depends on whether the job losses stop here.

BITCOIN · Desk

Bitcoin ETFs bought for five straight days.

The flow tables settled it. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in money five sessions straight, August 3 through 7. The run totals $865 million and is the longest streak of this recovery. The ETH funds joined in with $202 million over three days, their first real run of the cycle.

Two catches before anyone calls a bottom. The daily numbers shrank as the week went on ($244 million to $138 million to $102 million), and the streak never produced the $300 million single day we told you to watch for. Over the past month the funds also bought about 8,500 bitcoin while miners produced about 13,300. The buying is real, and it is still smaller than the new supply.

So this is repair. The next flow reading either stretches the streak or files it alongside the three failed recoveries this cycle has already produced.

🎲   The Odds
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? 53%
  
-15 PT  ·  Just over half the money still expects Solana back under $60 at some point this year, but this bet fell 15 points in a week. The chain's trading numbers keep arguing against it.
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? 79%
  
-14 PT  ·  Four bettors in five expect the token behind crypto's busiest trading venue to touch $50 before New Year, though the bet has softened 14 points in a week.
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? 45%
  
+11 PT  ·  The privacy-coin run refuses to go quiet. Zcash at $700 by New Year is now a 45% shot, up 11 points in a week, and the same market already paid out on $600.
👁   What to Watch
01 The New York Stock Exchange is building crypto plumbing. NYSE President Lynn Martin says the exchange is developing an on-chain settlement platform for tokenized securities, and that it ran a July pilot with DTC, the utility that settles nearly every US stock trade. No chain named, no date given. Watch for either institution to put details on paper; settlement is the deepest layer of the market an incumbent has touched yet.
02 Wednesday's US inflation report. The Labor Department publishes July's consumer price index on Wednesday morning. A cool number trims the September rate-hike bets further and gives Friday's jobs relief room to run. A hot one puts the hike back on the table.
03 Iran's new price for reopening Hormuz. Iran has issued new demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which narrows Trump's options for walking away from the war. Oil has been easing, with Brent near $82 after its $100 spike, and that easing is part of why inflation pressure cooled. The new demands keep that valve half-shut.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $64,848, down 0.1% on the day. ETH sits at $1,908 and SOL at $76.35. Friday's jobs pop has cooled a little, and the whole complex starts the week flat.
"We sold bitcoin to prove it wouldn't crash the market." Michael Saylor, on Strategy's sale. He also disclosed the rule underneath it: below roughly 3.2% annual bitcoin appreciation, Strategy funds its preferred dividends by selling bitcoin rather than issuing stock.
SpaceX shares swung $300 billion in value in a week. Down almost 14% in a day, then up more than 20% by Friday. That is the share unlock we flagged last week playing out.
MARA borrowed $600 million against its bitcoin. The miner pledged about 18,750 BTC, around $1.2 billion, as collateral for loans to fund its energy and AI buildout. Borrowing against the coins instead of selling them is new behavior for the miners.
Fear & Greed: 31, Fear, up one from 30. Sunday's reading, the latest published. The needle has sat in the fear band for weeks without breaking lower.
Wednesday’s inflation number decides whether Friday’s relief gets to keep running.
— TC
This is The Crossover. We sat through the weekend’s arguments so you didn’t have to; what you do with your money is entirely your call. We are better at explaining fights than picking winners.