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GM. This is The Crossover.
Two of today’s three stories are really about the same question: who’s actually watching the rails crypto runs on.
On-chain

Insiders rigged 53 token launches on Robinhood's chain

Red bolt cutters slicing through a bundle of coloured network cables on a dark green backdrop

An on-chain analyst who goes by Wazz spent about two months tracing memecoin launches on Robinhood Chain, the blockchain Robinhood built for its own users. Fifty-three of them, he found, led back to the same operation. That operation pulled out at least $18.43 million.

The Block checked his work and found how it happened. Pons, the launchpad hosting these tokens, normally charges new buyers an extra fee meant to stop bots from grabbing a token in the seconds after it goes live. For one set of wallets, Pons waived that fee. Those wallets then bought out almost the entire supply of each new token, in under a second, before anyone else had a chance to see it.

Fifty-three times, over two months, the same wallets got the same head start. Wu Blockchain flagged Wazz's numbers first, and The Block's own on-chain review came back a few hours later and matched them. That is a system, run on repeat, on a chain carrying Robinhood's own name.

Robinhood built this chain to move its stock and crypto trading onto rails it controls, the same push that put tokenized shares of companies like Nvidia and Tesla into ordinary brokerage accounts. A launchpad on that chain quietly handing early access to insiders undercuts the one thing a brokerage's name is supposed to buy a customer: the sense that somebody is watching the rails.

If you have ever bought a new token because a brand you trust put its name on the chain, this is the reminder that the brand does not screen who gets the unfair head start underneath it. Check who benefits from a launch before you buy into one, on any chain, branded or not.

Regulation

The Sixth Circuit just ruled against Kalshi

The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Kalshi this week in its fight with Ohio and Tennessee over sports-event contracts. The court found Kalshi failed to show those contracts count as swaps under federal commodities law, which opens the door for the states to regulate them as gambling instead.

That puts one appeals court against another. A different circuit sided with Kalshi on the same question earlier this year. Coinbase's chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, pointed out the Supreme Court takes fewer than 100 cases a year and argued this should be one of them. "We need a nationwide standard now, not a patchwork," he said.

Every prediction market built on crypto rails is waiting on the same answer, Kalshi included: state gambling law, or federal markets law.

Markets

21Shares says Hyperliquid could rival Ethereum

Eliezer Ndinga, head of research at the crypto fund manager 21Shares, is doubling down on a call he has made before. He argues Hyperliquid's token can become the second-biggest crypto asset after Bitcoin, ahead of Ether.

His case rests on revenue. Hyperliquid is the exchange where people trade crypto with borrowed money, and it is worth about $24 billion, more than 30 times what it collects in fees each year. Ndinga says that premium holds up once you count a new deal giving Kraken's users regulated access to the exchange. Add in open interest, the total money currently riding on live trades, and that number is sitting at an all-time high above $18 billion.

That is one analyst's opinion, and HYPE would need to grow a lot to earn the comparison. But the case keeps coming back, from more than one direction, and that alone is worth noticing.

The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? 65%
Flat. Traders think there's a 65% chance the Fed adds another quarter-point hike when it meets on October 28, on top of last month's increase, and that number hasn't moved since yesterday. In private, the Treasury Secretary told Larry Kudlow he wants the Fed to keep an open mind, and its likely next chair to lean more like Alan Greenspan in the 1990s than the European Central Bank that hiked into 2008's oil shock. Whoever is trading this market hasn't changed their mind yet.
What to Watch
Bessent's private pitch for a softer Fed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent privately urged the Fed to stay open-minded and floated Kevin Warsh, its likely next chair, as someone who'd ease off rather than keep hiking. If the Fed actually leans that way, October's rate-hike bet drops fast.
A bigger US-China tariff cut, still holding Trump and Xi's governments are still holding to last month's deal: tariffs cut on $30 billion of trade moving each way. Nothing changed over the weekend, and if this truce breaks down, investors go back to worrying about tariffs on top of a still-hiking Fed.
Brazil's self-custody rule takes effect Thursday Brazil's central bank rule requiring reports on self-custody wallet transfers over $10,000 takes effect Thursday, three days from now. It's one of the first economies to track money moving off exchanges into personal wallets, and other regulators are watching what happens next.
The Tape
• BTC $84,273, ETH $2,675.62, SOL $121.65 All three are within a percent of where they sat yesterday. Ether is the day's biggest mover, down 0.68%.
• "You can't produce superior performance unless you do something different from the consensus." Howard Marks, the veteran investor, said it in a week where crypto's Fear and Greed index keeps climbing even as the Fed stays on a hiking path.
• Quant's fourth straight day of unexplained gains QNT is up 88.3% today, its fourth day running of outsized moves, and nobody in our sources has pinned a reason to it yet.
• Fear & Greed: 74, Greed, up 4 points from yesterday That's back to where the index stood two days ago, on a day none of the four tokens we track moved even 1%.
Ask Viv
Ask Viv: a building as a token
What Is Tokenization, and Why Could It Be One of Blockchain’s Biggest Opportunities?
Selling a property today runs through lawyers, brokers, banks, and registries, and each one is a step. In this Ask Viv, Viv works through what could change if the rights attached to that property sat on a blockchain as a token: smaller stakes for more investors, and payments that could run on their own. He’s just as clear about the limit. The blockchain can tell you who holds the token, but it takes a legal framework to tie that token to the actual building.
Watch the full Ask Viv
Three stories today, one lesson: a brand on a chain, an exchange or a token tells you nothing about who’s actually in charge of it.
TC
Somebody has to read a launchpad’s fine print for a living, and today it was us. What you do with what we found is entirely your own affair.
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