| THE BRIEFING |
| GM. This is The Crossover. |
| There are five counts of the Coldcard theft going around this morning and no two of them match. |
Galaxy says 1,750 bitcoin are gone.

Count the Coldcard theft five ways and you get five answers. Galaxy Research says more than 1,750 bitcoin were taken from about 5,000 addresses, worth north of $100 million. Fold in the wallets it suspects but cannot prove and the firm reaches roughly 2,000 coins and $130 million.
The other counts sit underneath that. Friday's first warning said 594 coins. Delphi Digital got to 1,367 and $89 million. Milk Road was quoting $114 million on Monday morning.
There is no agreed figure yet, and anybody handing you one is rounding.
How it happened is not in dispute. A build error in March 2021 left the firmware checking whether the hardware randomness chip was there rather than whether it was switched on, so the device built recovery phrases out of a software shortcut instead.
On Mk2 and Mk3 devices that cut the real randomness from a target of 128 bits to around 40. Somebody with a laptop can work through that many candidate phrases offline and test each one against public addresses until a balance turns up.
The waves came quickly. The first, on 30 July, emptied 1,082 coins from nearly 1,200 addresses inside an hour. Two more followed by 1 August, and a fourth is suspected from 2 August.
Owners bought a Coldcard so they would never have to trust a company with their coins. Their answer to a broken Coldcard was to send the coins to a company. Deposits under 10 bitcoin reached 7,300 coins on 31 July, the highest since February.
Coinkite patched every model inside two days, and the patch cannot repair a phrase that was already made. Affected coins have to move to a new address built on a new seed, and Casa's Jameson Lopp says some devices have died mid-update, so move the money first and update afterwards.
The CLARITY Act's odds fell to 10%.
The CLARITY Act would settle who regulates what in American crypto. It passed the House in July 2025 and has sat in the Senate ever since.
This is the last week it can move. The Senate rises for its August break on the 10th, getting past a filibuster needs 60 votes, and Republicans hold 53. Polymarket runs a contract on whether the Senate votes on it before the recess, and that contract trades at 10%. A separate one on the bill being signed into law this year sits at 27%.
Bitcoin is $63,332, roughly flat for a month, in the first of the only two months of the year that average a loss. Nobody is pricing a rescue from Washington, and on those numbers it is hard to blame them.
BlackRock built two funds for stablecoin reserves.
Stablecoin reserves are mostly short-term US government debt, and BlackRock now sells two ways to hold them on Ethereum. BSTBL is an onchain share class of its Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund. BRSRV is a daily reinvestment vehicle built for those reserves and nothing else.
Ether is $1,851, down 1.2% on the day. The money parked in DeFi apps fell 3.28% over the week to $74.3 billion, and the total supply of dollar tokens slipped another 0.82%.
So the pile is getting smaller while the largest asset manager in the world keeps building on top of it. The thing to watch is whether an issuer of any real size actually moves reserves into one of these. None has said it will yet.
| 🎲 The Odds | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 👁 What to Watch | ||||||
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| 📟 The Tape | ||||||||||
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The count will keep moving this week, and the only one worth trusting will come from Coinkite.
— TC
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