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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
There are five counts of the Coldcard theft going around this morning and no two of them match.
BITCOIN · Desk

Galaxy says 1,750 bitcoin are gone.

Count the Coldcard theft five ways and you get five answers. Galaxy Research says more than 1,750 bitcoin were taken from about 5,000 addresses, worth north of $100 million. Fold in the wallets it suspects but cannot prove and the firm reaches roughly 2,000 coins and $130 million.

The other counts sit underneath that. Friday's first warning said 594 coins. Delphi Digital got to 1,367 and $89 million. Milk Road was quoting $114 million on Monday morning.

There is no agreed figure yet, and anybody handing you one is rounding.

How it happened is not in dispute. A build error in March 2021 left the firmware checking whether the hardware randomness chip was there rather than whether it was switched on, so the device built recovery phrases out of a software shortcut instead.

On Mk2 and Mk3 devices that cut the real randomness from a target of 128 bits to around 40. Somebody with a laptop can work through that many candidate phrases offline and test each one against public addresses until a balance turns up.

The waves came quickly. The first, on 30 July, emptied 1,082 coins from nearly 1,200 addresses inside an hour. Two more followed by 1 August, and a fourth is suspected from 2 August.

Owners bought a Coldcard so they would never have to trust a company with their coins. Their answer to a broken Coldcard was to send the coins to a company. Deposits under 10 bitcoin reached 7,300 coins on 31 July, the highest since February.

Coinkite patched every model inside two days, and the patch cannot repair a phrase that was already made. Affected coins have to move to a new address built on a new seed, and Casa's Jameson Lopp says some devices have died mid-update, so move the money first and update afterwards.

MARKETS · Desk

The CLARITY Act's odds fell to 10%.

The CLARITY Act would settle who regulates what in American crypto. It passed the House in July 2025 and has sat in the Senate ever since.

This is the last week it can move. The Senate rises for its August break on the 10th, getting past a filibuster needs 60 votes, and Republicans hold 53. Polymarket runs a contract on whether the Senate votes on it before the recess, and that contract trades at 10%. A separate one on the bill being signed into law this year sits at 27%.

Bitcoin is $63,332, roughly flat for a month, in the first of the only two months of the year that average a loss. Nobody is pricing a rescue from Washington, and on those numbers it is hard to blame them.

ETHEREUM · Desk

BlackRock built two funds for stablecoin reserves.

Stablecoin reserves are mostly short-term US government debt, and BlackRock now sells two ways to hold them on Ethereum. BSTBL is an onchain share class of its Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund. BRSRV is a daily reinvestment vehicle built for those reserves and nothing else.

Ether is $1,851, down 1.2% on the day. The money parked in DeFi apps fell 3.28% over the week to $74.3 billion, and the total supply of dollar tokens slipped another 0.82%.

So the pile is getting smaller while the largest asset manager in the world keeps building on top of it. The thing to watch is whether an issuer of any real size actually moves reserves into one of these. None has said it will yet.

🎲   The Odds
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? 65%
  
-11 PT  ·  Crude fell almost 6% on Monday to a three-week low, and the crowd answered by getting less sure it keeps falling. The odds of oil touching $75 this month came down 11 points. Cheaper oil cools inflation, and cooler inflation is the one thing that would take weight off crypto.
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? 12%
  
-2 PT  ·  Ether is $1,851, so this needs roughly 46% to come off between now and New Year. Twelve in a hundred think it happens, two fewer than last week.
Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? 4%
  
FLAT  ·  Twenty cents would wipe out most of what XRP is worth today. Four in a hundred still pay to hold that ticket, and the number has not moved all week.
👁   What to Watch
01 Two governments went into the currency market together. The US Treasury bought yen last week alongside the Japanese authorities, the first time that has happened since 2011, after the yen fell to four-decade lows. Cheap yen has funded bets all over the world for years. When the yen jumps, those loans get called in and the bets get sold to repay them. That is what broke markets in August 2024, and bitcoin took one of the heaviest hits going.
02 A billion dollars of bitcoin woke up. Somebody emptied a wallet on Monday that had not been touched in seven months, shifting 16,400 coins worth roughly $1.04 billion. It went to another wallet rather than to an exchange, and that is the detail deciding what this was. A second hop onto an exchange in the next day or two reads as a seller arriving when fewer coins are sitting in profit than at almost any point this cycle. Nothing further, and somebody was reorganizing their storage.
03 Election markets arrive on Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid lets outside developers spin up their own markets through something called HIP-4, and the open version of it reached a test network on 31 July. Markets on the 2026 US midterms are the target. The catch is demand. Betting there has fallen more than 90% since the World Cup, and roughly half of everything traded on it has been three sports. Whether politics fills that gap is what the midterms will answer.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $63,332, up 0.08%. Ether $1,851.21, down 1.2%. Solana $73.13, down 0.2%. A month of the same number now, give or take a few hundred dollars.
Fear & Greed: 25, Extreme Fear, down three points. It crossed out of plain fear overnight. The last time it sat here was the end of July, and the drop came on a day the price barely moved.
Crypto card spending set a record in July. It rose 19% to $748.7 million, the fifth monthly gain in a row, and RedotPay alone handled over half. Deposits into stablecoin neobanks passed $1 billion for the first time.
A record share of spot trading happened on decentralized exchanges in July. The share reached 24.16%, the highest since the count began in 2019. Both sides shrank to get there. Trading on decentralized venues fell 6% to $124.8 billion, its weakest month since September 2024, and the centralized exchanges fell further.
The Buffett Indicator reached a record 230%. The gauge divides the value of America's stock market by the size of its economy. It read about 150% just before the dot-com crash. Berkshire, meanwhile, is sitting on $400 billion of cash it has not spent.
The count will keep moving this week, and the only one worth trusting will come from Coinkite.
— TC

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