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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
We're a little later than usual today, still a great read.
MARKETS · Desk

Galaxy lost $85M. Its data center made money.

Galaxy Digital reported an $85 million net loss for the second quarter on Tuesday. Sounds terrible. Most of it is paper. Crypto prices fell during the quarter, and the value of Galaxy's own holdings fell with them.

The number that matters more is $18.9 million, the first rent Galaxy has ever collected on a data center.

The company took an old bitcoin mining site in West Texas, spent years turning it into an AI data-center campus called Helios, and leased it to CoreWeave for 15 years. In the second quarter the buildout finished and the billing started. The segment posted its first profitable quarter. With all 133 megawatts of the first phase now live, Galaxy expects the site to bill roughly $80 million a quarter from here, at margins above 90 percent.

The crypto side held up better than the prices did. Trading gross profit rose 34 percent while volumes fell. BNY, a custodian minding more than $60 trillion, signed a multi-year agreement to support staking on Galaxy's platform.

There is a catch, and it is the Texas grid. Galaxy's pipeline holds 5,730 megawatts of possible capacity. Only 800 are under contract. On August 3 Governor Abbott ordered an audit of every data center waiting for a grid connection, and the queue froze with 474 gigawatts of requests in it, against a grid that has never delivered more than about 91. The sites already powered just became more valuable, and the pipeline behind them became more theoretical.

If you hold crypto through companies like this, the shift is worth reading plainly. TeraWulf now makes 71 percent of its revenue hosting AI computers rather than mining. The firms that built crypto's machinery are becoming landlords, and the rent is steadier than the coins.

REGULATION · Desk

The Senate is leaving without a crypto vote.

The crypto bill Washington spent two years on will not get its vote before the Senate's summer break. Majority Leader John Thune never filed for cloture, the step that starts the voting clock, and negotiations are reported at a standstill. Betting markets now price the CLARITY Act becoming law this year at 17 percent.

The sticking point is the president's own coin. The unsettled clause would bar senior officials from issuing digital assets while in office. This week Senators Warren and Blumenthal asked the SEC to investigate $TRUMP, citing reports that nearly a million wallets lost $3.81 billion while the president made $636 million. Both figures come from the senators' letter.

Strange week for it. Crypto's super PAC Fairshake went five for five in this week's primaries. The industry keeps winning elections and keeps not getting its law. Until that changes, the SEC writes the rules.

STABLECOINS · Desk

BlackRock and Visa will run Circle's blockchain.

Circle named the institutions that will run Arc, the blockchain it is building around USDC, ahead of a September 16 launch. The list reads like a bank district. BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, MoneyGram, and DTCC. That last one settles nearly every US stock trade. Instead of anonymous node operators, the firms building on the chain will run it.

They are not only guarding it. BlackRock plans to bring its BUIDL Treasury fund onto Arc, and DTCC will start putting tokenized versions of the assets it holds on the chain from late 2027. More than 100 builders are already working on the private version.

Circle needs this. The yield it earns on USDC reserves fell two-thirds of a point to 3.5 percent last quarter, and it renewed the Coinbase deal that gives much of that yield away, on unchanged terms. Owning the rails beats renting them.

🎲   The Odds
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? 9%
  
+2 PT  ·  The no-cut market sits at 88 percent, so exactly one cut is the long shot here. It still crept up two points in a week when Fed officials were talking about raising, a small bet that the economy cracks first.
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? 9%
  
FLAT  ·  Solana trades near $74, so this pays out only if it loses roughly three-quarters of its value by New Year. One-in-eleven odds, unmoved all week.
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026? 6%
  
FLAT  ·  A bet that Dogecoin gets back to nearly half a dollar this year, priced at one in sixteen. Read it next to the study in The Tape; the market has stopped pricing miracles for the long tail.
👁   What to Watch
01 Ethereum's core developers decide on EIP-8363 today. The proposal would burn a growing share of validator rewards as more ether is staked, until at about half the supply staked no new ETH is created at all. The founders of Aave and ether.fi are leading the opposition. Today's call decides whether it enters the next upgrade's consideration set, and either answer tells you who controls Ethereum's money policy.
02 Friday's US jobs report. The July payrolls count lands tomorrow morning, with forecasts between 91,000 and 120,000 new jobs after June's weak 57,000. A strong number arms the Fed officials who want rates higher. A weak one reopens the case for cuts, which is the one thing crypto has been waiting on all year.
03 Today's bitcoin ETF flow number. US spot bitcoin funds took in $170 million on Monday and $212 million on Tuesday, the first back-to-back inflow days in two weeks. Wednesday's total posts today. A third straight day, or any single day above $300 million, would turn a floor repair into the first real sign of demand in a while.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $64,649, up 0.9%. Ether $1,909, Solana $74, both slightly higher. Bitcoin is still inside the range it has held for a month, which the research firm Ecoinometrics reads as demand stabilizing rather than returning.
The Russell 2000 hit an all-time high. Small US companies hit a record too, so the rally now reaches well past the AI giants. Crypto is still the one asset class sitting it out.
The median crypto token has lost 97%. Blockworks Research counted every token that ever reached a $50 million value. The middle token among them is down 97 percent, and only one in 24 did better than simply holding bitcoin.
Glassnode called this bottom boring. "Bottom signals arriving through boredom rather than capitulation," their analysts wrote of a market whose options are "priced for nothing." The sellers are finished, and the buyers have not arrived.
Fear & Greed: 27, Fear, up two. Wednesday's reading, the most recent published, moved back out of Extreme Fear. Nobody is greedy. Barely anyone is even properly scared, which fits the boredom diagnosis.
Rent checks and validator lists are carrying this market until the buyers come back.
— TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what happened and what we make of it; where your money goes is your call alone. If we could predict prices, we would be writing this from a yacht.

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