Democrats won the Senate overnight. Roy Cooper flipped North Carolina, and in Ohio Sherrod Brown beat Jon Husted to take back his old seat. The House had not been called when we wrote this, though traders on Polymarket had priced a Democratic House at 99.9% by this morning.

Ohio is the race the crypto industry paid for. Fairshake is the industry's super PAC, funded by Coinbase, Ripple and a16z. It spent $55 million against Brown, more than on any other race.

Crypto groups spent more than $200 million on these midterms in all, the largest single-issue super PAC effort in US history, Public Citizen says. Brown spent years as one of the industry's sharpest critics, and now he is back.

The Senate decides the market-structure bill, the law that decides which agency regulates which token. It passed the House 294 to 134 last July and failed a Senate vote in September, 49 to 50, short of the 60 needed.

A bill that has not passed by January dies with this Congress. Senator Bill Hagerty said last week the government's bitcoin reserve grows only once that bill passes. Traders on Polymarket put the chance the bill becomes law this year at 3%.

A Democratic Congress gets subpoena power, and its members have said where they'd look. Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters have already asked the SEC to keep its records on World Liberty Financial, the Trump family's crypto venture. Democrats have filed a bill to ban betting contracts on elections, sports and war, and sports is about 84% of Kalshi's volume this year.

Expect the new Congress to hold hearings before it passes anything. Mark Warner, the Democrat who negotiated on the bill, kept his seat.

If you hold bitcoin, the reserve buyer the industry was counting on now waits on a Congress its money tried to stop. Bitcoin was $77,052 at our 00:34 UTC reading, before the Senate was called.

Mike Selig, who chairs the CFTC, said on Tuesday morning that perpetual futures on single US stocks can trade on CFTC-registered exchanges for the first time. A perpetual is a bet on a price with no expiry date, the crypto exchanges' main product.

Kalshi has filed for up to 58 contracts on stocks like Apple, Nvidia and Tesla. Coinbase and Bitnomial, which belongs to Kraken's parent, have filed too. None has a launch date.

The American version is tamer than the offshore one. Trading runs Sunday evening to Friday afternoon, and margin of about 15% means roughly 6.5 times leverage.

Within hours a group called Capital Markets Alliance, backed by Cboe, sued the CFTC and asked a court to stop the contracts being listed. SIFMA, Wall Street's trade group, wants a pause first. If a judge doesn't stop it, leveraged Apple arrives on the app you buy bitcoin in.

Coinbase published its third-quarter numbers last Thursday, the afternoon Binance was hacked. Trading revenue fell 44% from a year earlier to $590 million. Subscriptions and services brought in $570 million, 49% of net revenue, up from 41% a year ago.

Most of that is USDC. Circle parks the dollars behind the stablecoin in Treasury bills and hands Coinbase a large cut of the interest, and average USDC in Coinbase products hit a record $22 billion in the quarter. Operating profit, what the business itself earns, fell to $62 million from $481 million.

Morgan Stanley cut the stock to underweight on Monday, meaning it expects the shares to lag, and now values them at $120 rather than $258. The shares closed Monday near $138, their lowest in a year. Coinbase gets paid when you park dollars there whether you trade or not, which is why it wants stock perpetuals.