Big banks moved deeper into crypto, and Bitcoin fell anyway

The story

Big banks moved deeper into crypto

J.P. Morgan's asset management arm published its first long-term bitcoin forecast: about 10% a year, with big price swings named as the main barrier. Germany's savings banks began selling bitcoin in their own banking app, and more than 230 of them have shown interest. Standard Chartered agreed to take full ownership of the custodian Zodia, subject to approval, and America's bank regulator issued the first final rule under its new stablecoin law. Bitcoin is reaching savers through banks they already use.

The bigger picture

Rough Thursday, Tight Money

Tech results spooked stock markets. Investors sold Meta for raising its AI spending, Tesla for cutting it, and Lam Research despite record results. On Thursday Korea's main index fell 3.5%, Hong Kong's 3% and Japan's 2.7%. Bitcoin still falls with tech stocks on bad days, and Thursday was one.

No cheaper money coming. Betting markets give a Fed rate rise next week about a 1 in 20 chance, but put another rise before the end of 2026 at about 3 in 4. Brent oil rose above $112 a barrel on Thursday. While safe US government bonds pay close to 5%, big investors have less reason to take a risk on crypto.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Money went back into the US bitcoin funds early in the week, and bitcoin climbed to about $84,800 on Wednesday, its highest in about 2 weeks. On Thursday it fell back with tech stocks, to about $81,100.

What people are talking about

Not a new hack. An alert about $16 million moving at India's CoinDCX traced back to wallets hacked in July 2025; current wallets were not affected, its co-founder says.

Mt. Gox waits another year. The trustee of the collapsed exchange moved its repayment deadline by a year, to October 31st, 2027.

Solana got much faster. Solana's Alpenglow upgrade went live on Wednesday, cutting the time for a payment to become final from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.

Expert voices

What could change

0:00 · Intro

Hello again. On Thursday, bitcoin fell about 4% in a day, to about $81,100. Stock markets sold off over AI spending, starting in Asia, and bitcoin went down with them.

Earlier in the week, investors put money back into US bitcoin funds. J.P. Morgan put out its first long-term bitcoin forecast. And Germany's savings bank started selling bitcoin in their own banking app.

If the big buyers are back, why did bitcoin still follow tech stocks down?

0:32 · Where the market stands

Well, let's look at the state of play.

As we said, bitcoin is at about $81,100, down about 1.4% on the week. On Wednesday it got to about $84,800, its highest in about 2 weeks, before Thursday's fall. Ethereum is at about $2,370, down about 3%.

The Fear and Greed index, which is the gauge of the crypto market's mood, reads 68. That's "greed", up from 63 last Friday. But that reading measures Wednesday, before the fall.

1:01 · Big banks moved deeper into crypto

So in this week's story we've got 3 big banks move deeper into crypto this week.

First, as mentioned, J.P. Morgan. Its fund arm published its first long-term forecast for bitcoin, and it projects about 10% a year. But it names bitcoin's 55% volatility, how far the price swings, as the main thing that stops big investors holding it.

Second, you've got Germany's savings bank. They've started selling bitcoin in their own banking app. Five are live, and more than 230 have shown interest.

Third, Standard Chartered. It agreed to take full ownership of Zodia Custody, which holds crypto for big investors. Although that's subject to regulatory approval.

And the OCC, which regulates America's national banks, issued the first final rule under the GENIUS Act. The rule takes effect on January 18th, 2027. The American Bankers Association accuses the regulator of undermining Congress.

2:01 · Rough Thursday, Tight Money

So the big picture, after the US market closed on Wednesday, investors sold Meta for raising its AI spending and Tesla for cutting its spending.

On Thursday, stock markets in Asia closed sharply lower. In New York, the Nasdaq was down about 2.4% lower by Thursday afternoon. On a bad day for tech stocks, bitcoin still falls with them, and Thursday was one.

The Fed raised rates in September and decides again on Wednesday, October 28th. People betting on Polymarket give the Fed more than a 9 in 10 chance of holding rates that day. Their bet on another rise before the end of '26 is about 3 in 4.

Brent crude oil was above $112 a barrel on Thursday, up about 3% on the day.

The US government borrows by selling bonds. This week the 10-year bond paid about 5%. When the safest investment there is pays close to 5%, big investors are paid to wait, and they have less reason to take a risk on crypto.

3:01 · Bitcoin and Ethereum

And so to bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin first. Investors put money back into the US bitcoin funds early in the week, after a week when they had been taking it out. But companies that hold bitcoin as a treasury asset are buying far less than they did at their peak, in late 2024.

Ethereum fell further than bitcoin on Thursday, about 5% in 24 hours, and overall investors were still taking money out of the US ether funds.

J.P. Morgan extended JPM Coin, its US dollar deposit token, to Ethereum for its institutional clients. A deposit token is a bank deposit that moves on a blockchain. And BitMine says it will stop buying when it holds 5% of all ether. It currently holds 4.9%, so not far to go there. And then to the community pulse.

3:52 · What people are talking about

CoinDCX, an Indian crypto exchange, was not hacked again this week. An alert flagged $16 million moving from wallets linked to it. Those turned out to be wallets compromised in July '25. Its co-founder, Sumit Gupta, said no funds in its current wallets were affected.

And the trustee of Mt. Gox, the exchange that collapsed in 2014, moved the repayment deadline by a year, to October 31st, 2027.

And Solana's upgrade went live on Wednesday, October 21st. It cut the time for a payment to become final from about 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds.

4:30 · Expert voices

And so to the expert voices, we have Kevin Warsh, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, said on October 16th: "I don't prejudge meetings. I don't believe in saying now what I might do at the meeting we have." So he won't hint at what the Fed does on October 28th.

Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, said on October 17th that "the energy shock is too large to 'look through' but a measured response remains appropriate to keep inflation in check." So Europe's central bank won't treat the jump in energy price as temporary, and it will keep acting against inflation, but carefully.

Then we have Michael Saylor is the Executive Chairman of Strategy, the biggest company holder of bitcoin. In a clip posted on October 21st, he said: "Anything that's risk off, that's not good for equity, it's double, triple not good for bitcoin." He means bitcoin takes a bigger hit when stocks fall, as it did on Thursday.

The Chief Executive of the crypto firm Galaxy said this about bitcoin in a clip posted the same day: "I think a lot of people that needed to sell it, sold it." So in his view, most of the people who had to sell bitcoin have already done so.

5:39 · What to watch next

So what could change?

Well, next Wednesday, October 28th, the Fed decides on rates and Microsoft reports. On Thursday, October 29th, the US publishes third-quarter growth and September's inflation figure, the one the Fed prefers. Europe's central banks decide that day too, and Amazon reports. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday, October 30th.

Then come the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3rd, and the Bank of England on Thursday, November 5th. And on Wednesday, November 11th, the index company MSCI is due to publish a list. Strategy and similar companies could be removed from major stock indices. These all have the potential to shift the market.

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7:34 · The bottom line

So this week, investors put money back into the US bitcoin funds, and 3 big banks moved deeper into crypto. On Thursday, bitcoin still fell with tech stocks.

Next week, the Fed decides on Wednesday, and Microsoft and Amazon report Wednesday and Thursday. I'll talk you through it next Friday. Take care.

The Crossover Weekly is for information and education. It isn't financial advice. Read our disclaimer.