Apple and Nvidia shares went on-chain, and Bitcoin slipped

The story

Real stocks arrive on crypto rails

Securitize launched digital versions of Apple and Nvidia shares on Solana this week, each backed 1 for 1 by a real share and paying dividends. OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, told US regulators they plan a tokenized stock trading venue. Ondo opened an OpenAI-linked token for qualifying non-US investors. Samsung says it will add dollar-coin transfers to its wallet, and Standard Chartered plans crypto custody in Singapore. The International Monetary Fund found that about 80% of the tokenized stock trades it studied were for less than one whole share. Wall Street's own assets are being built onto crypto networks, even in a week when prices fell.

The bigger picture

Still tight, more rises in view

Fed officials expect another rise. Minutes of the Fed's September meeting say most officials think another rate rise would likely be appropriate by the end of the year, with inflation risks tilted upward. Borrowing costs stay high, with the 10-year US yield above 5%, which keeps rate cuts out of reach.

Oil jumps back above $100. Brent crude, the global oil price, rose more than $4 on Thursday to $104.28, its highest close since September, as producers shut down ahead of a hurricane. Pricier oil keeps inflation up, and that keeps the Fed from cutting rates.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin slipped to about $81,800, down roughly 3.5% on the week, as the Fed and oil pushed the other way. The US Bitcoin funds saw their biggest one-day outflow since June 25th on Wednesday, and early reports say money left again on Thursday.

What people are talking about

Quantum nerves. Ethereum's Justin Drake warned AI could one day break wallet cryptography. Vitalik Buterin says don't rush.

Government wallet watch. US government wallets sent Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime. Moving to an exchange is not the same as selling.

Robinhood buys Bitcoin. Robinhood put $25 million of Bitcoin on its own balance sheet to show its commitment to crypto.

Expert voices

What could change

0:00 · Intro

Hey, welcome back. This week Securitize put digital versions of Apple and Nvidia shares on a blockchain. Samsung said people in the US will be able to send digital dollars from its phone wallet. And Standard Chartered, the bank, said it plans to hold crypto for clients in Singapore.

In the same week, Bitcoin fell about 3.5% to around $82,000, and Ether fell more than 8%. And the Fed's own minutes said another rate rise is likely by the end of the year. So why aren't prices following the news?

0:35 · Where the market stands

Well, let's look at the state of play.

Bitcoin, like I said, is around $82,000. A week ago it was around $85,000, and that's a fall of about 3.5%. It's the lowest it's been in 2 weeks. Ethereum is around $2,480, down more than 8%. And the Fear and Greed index, the gauge that tracks the market's moods, reads 59. That's still "greed", but it's down 13 points from 72 a week ago. People are still upbeat, just a lot less than they were a week ago.

1:05 · Real stocks arrive on crypto rails

So this week's big story is tokenized stock. If you're not familiar, a tokenized stock is a digital version of a share that lives on the blockchain.

Securitize is a regulated company that puts investments on blockchains. On Thursday it launched tokenized US stocks on Solana, including Apple and Nvidia.

Each token has a real share behind it. They pay dividends, and you buy them using USDC, a digital dollar. Eligible investors in the US and Europe can get them through Securitize.

The plan is for them to trade on the New York Stock Exchange too, and on a new venue called OKX ICE. Neither of those is live yet. OKX ICE comes from OKX, the crypto exchange, and ICE, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange. They told the SEC about their plan this week.

Ondo does the same kind of thing, and it opened trading in a token that tracks a private company linked to OpenAI. Only qualified investors outside the US can buy it.

Samsung says people in the US with Galaxy phones will be able to send and receive USDC in Samsung Wallet. And Standard Chartered plans to offer crypto custody in Singapore, which means the bank holds the crypto for you. It hasn't said when.

The IMF, the International Monetary Fund, found that about 80% of trades in tokenized stocks were for less than a single share.

So prices fell, and Wall Street kept moving its own assets onto crypto's networks anyway.

2:40 · Still tight, more rises in view

So what's the big picture?

Well, as far as I can tell, what pushed prices down was the Fed, and oil.

At its September meeting the Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and on Wednesday it published the minutes of that meeting.

The minutes show most officials think another rise will likely be needed by the end of the year. They see more risk of inflation going up than down. But they also say they go into every meeting with an open mind.

On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller said he expects more rises if the numbers keep coming as expected, but not necessarily at back-to-back meetings.

And oil didn't help. Some oil producers stopped pumping ahead of Hurricane Isaias. So on Thursday Brent crude, the main global oil price, rose more than $4 to just over $104 a barrel.

Why does that matter for crypto? Well, this week the US government has been paying more than 5% to borrow for 10 years. When borrowing stays that expensive and oil keeps pushing prices up, the Fed can't easily cut rates. And rate cuts are what crypto holders are waiting for. I don't know where the Fed goes from here.

3:50 · Bitcoin and Ethereum

So to crypto, and Bitcoin first. The crypto news this week was good, and the prices still fell. On Wednesday, more money left the US Bitcoin funds than on any day since June 25th. Early reports say money left again on Thursday, but the official numbers aren't in yet.

And Ether, it fell harder, more than 8%, and money left Ether funds this week too. Also BitMine, the company that holds more Ether than any other, says it will stop buying once it owns 5% of all Ether there is. It already holds 4.9%, so not far to go there.

Glamsterdam, Ethereum's next big upgrade, passed its first trial run on a test network. The developers are aiming to launch it later this year, but there's no date yet.

4:34 · What people are talking about

And so to the community. No wallet has been cracked, but people are arguing about whether one could be. Justin Drake, an Ethereum researcher, warned that AI could one day help work out the private keys that protect wallets, and he wants what he calls "bunker mode" planning.

Then you've Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum's co-founder, who said don't rush anything, and that goes for you too. Don't move your coins because of a headline.

Wallets linked to the US government moved some Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, a trading service for big clients. That isn't the same as selling it.

And Robinhood bought $25 million of Bitcoin to keep for itself. It said the point was to show its commitment to crypto.

5:15 · Expert voices

And so to some expert voices. We've May Zabaneh, a senior vice president at PayPal, said this week at TOKEN2049, the crypto conference in Singapore: "The world is completely going tokenized, and there's no choice but to engage." So a big payments company is saying it feels it has to take part.

In a preview of its October stability report, the IMF wrote: "Some tokenization features can create new channels for transmitting and amplifying traditional financial risks, such as fire sales, liquidity runs, and contagion through greater interconnectedness and leverage." So the IMF's worry is that on a blockchain, a panic can spread faster.

Christopher Waller, the Fed governor, said on Thursday: "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal." Note the "if".

And Kristalina Georgieva, who runs the IMF, talked on Wednesday about the hyperscalers. Those are the giant tech companies spending heavily on AI, partly with borrowed money. She said: "Should earnings fall short, however, hyperscaler leverage and large and growing global holdings of U.S. equities could turn a disappointment into a far-reaching shock." So if their profits disappoint, she says the damage could spread a long way.

6:40 · What to watch next

So what could change?

Well, next Tuesday, October 13th, the IMF publishes that stability report in full. And on Wednesday, October 14th, the US inflation report for September is due, and the IMF's World Economic Outlook comes out the same day.

I'll be watching whether money starts going back into the Bitcoin funds, and whether more Fed officials sound like Waller. Then the Fed meets on October 27th and 28th, and Samsung's wallet feature is due in late October.

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8:15 · The bottom line

So why didn't prices follow the news? It looks like the Fed and oil mattered more than anything crypto did. The Fed's minutes point to another rate rise this year, oil is back above $100, and Bitcoin is around $82,000.

Meanwhile Securitize put Apple and Nvidia shares on a blockchain, Samsung says it will bring digital dollars to its wallet, and Standard Chartered plans to hold crypto in Singapore. For now, the Fed is setting crypto's prices, and the companies building on crypto aren't waiting. See you next Friday.

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