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A payments company is suing Tether over $2.76 million it can’t reach, and bitcoin briefly slid below $84,000 overnight.
On-chain

Conduit sued Tether over $2.76 million in frozen USDT

A brass padlock sealed inside a clear block of resin on a black background

Conduit, a payments company that moves money for business clients, sued Tether in a New York federal court on Tuesday. It says Tether froze $2.76 million of its USDT more than a year ago and has never explained why.

The money sits in its treasury wallet, where Conduit keeps the funds it uses to pay out. Conduit wants the court to order Tether to restore its access. It says the missing money has slowed payments to its clients, because a company that moves other people's dollars needs working capital it can reach.

A relay of The Block's report adds that the wallet was never flagged by Brazilian police. We haven't read the complaint, and Tether's side isn't in the reporting we've seen.

Tether issues USDT, a token meant to stay worth one US dollar, and it can freeze any address that holds it. A frozen address still shows its balance but can't send it, and law enforcement requests are the usual reason. USDT is the largest stablecoin, about $184 billion in circulation according to DefiLlama, which is more than half of the $314 billion of stablecoins it tracks. Circle can freeze USDC, the second largest, in the same way.

Keeping USDT in your own wallet doesn't change that. The freeze acts on the token, wherever it is stored. Conduit's $2.76 million is about 0.0015% of all USDT.

No court has ruled yet. A ruling would show what a holder can ask a judge to do when the issuer locks its money and gives no reason. If you run payments or payroll on USDT, the question for today is how much of your working capital sits in one token that its issuer can lock.

Regulation

DOJ filed new papers in the Roman Storm case

Roman Storm, a developer of the Tornado Cash mixing service, is back in the news two days after FinCEN withdrew its own mixer proposal. The Justice Department has filed a new paper this week aimed at his challenge to where he was tried. His motion for acquittal is still pending, and we haven't read the filing.

A jury convicted Storm last August of running an unlicensed money-transmitting business. It deadlocked on the money laundering and sanctions charges, and prosecutors chose to retry him on those. The retrial is set for 26 April 2027.

So one part of the government is pulling back a rule while another keeps prosecuting. For anyone who writes or funds open-source code, this is the case that tests whether publishing software that moves money counts as running a money business.

Bitcoin

Citi lifted its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000

Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 in a note published last Thursday, according to a crypto newsletter's summary of it. We haven't seen the note. It lifted its ether target from $2,240 to $3,028, a smaller rise, because it expects big buyers to reach for bitcoin first.

Citi gives two reasons. One is continued buying by bitcoin ETFs, about $5 billion more over a year in its forecast, which it says would absorb about a third of newly mined coins. The other is the US Treasury's bond buybacks.

The old $82,000 target sat below where bitcoin trades now, so a raise was nearly forced. The new one is roughly a third above this morning's price. It's one bank's forecast, and no buyer has agreed to pay that price.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? 55%
New. This is a bet on whether bitcoin trades down to $80,000 at any point before the end of October. The bet on a dip to $80,000 stands at 55%, and bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 overnight, so $80,000 is about 5% under that. Citi's $113,000 is a forecast for the next 12 months, and the bet on an $80,000 dip covers the next three weeks.
🔭 What to Watch
Fed minutes, due today The minutes are the Fed's written record of what officials said at their September meeting. Hotter talk on inflation could lift the 15% chance traders give an October rate hike, and softer talk could lower it.
The 10-year Treasury yield, near 5.3% The 10-year yield is what the US government pays to borrow for ten years, and it sits at a two-decade high. A higher yield raises the cost of holding bitcoin, which pays no interest.
Farside's US bitcoin fund figures Farside tracks the money moving in and out of US bitcoin funds each day. Its last figure on file is October 1, so three trading days since are missing.
📈 The Tape
• BTC $85,477, ETH $2,695.89, SOL $120.44 Those are CoinGecko readings from 00:10 UTC, when bitcoin was down 0.34%, ether down 0.58% and Solana down 0.29% on the day. Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 after that.
• About $555.6 million of leveraged crypto bets were forced to close in 24 hours, $487.2 million of them on higher prices Traders get forced out when their collateral no longer covers the money they borrowed. The figures are CoinGlass data, reported by The Block.
• Coinbase plans to relaunch Coinbase Pro by year-end and has completed its Deribit integration Deribit is the options exchange Coinbase bought, and the combined business is called Coinbase Global Exchange. We've seen this only as a summary from The Block, not a Coinbase statement.
• Singapore's regulator says it isn't aware of Hyperliquid being regulated in any major jurisdiction Hyperliquid is an onchain exchange for perpetual futures, contracts on a price that never expire. The Financial Times reports the regulator said it may fall outside its reach even though the firm is based in Singapore, and we've seen that only as a relay.
• Fear & Greed: 71, Greed, down 2 from yesterday It's the first fall after two rises, from 65 to 70 to 73. The reading was taken at 01:45 UTC.
🎯 The Call
Per DefiLlama, how much USDT was in circulation this morning?
$176 to $182 billion
$182 to $188 billion
$188 to $194 billion
Fed minutes land today, and bitcoin briefly slid below $84,000 overnight.
TC
We read about a lawsuit, a prosecution and a bank forecast before breakfast and can’t tell you how any of them ends, so what you do with your money stays with you.
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