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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Rates went up, the crypto bill stayed dead, and the day’s real news was a stablecoin company shipping its own blockchain.
ON-CHAIN · Desk

Circle launched Arc. BlackRock and Visa run nodes.

A gold bank card propped against a black combination dial lock

Circle, the company that issues the USDC stablecoin, launched its own blockchain yesterday. Arc spent a year as a test network, and Circle said it would build one more than a year before that.

Until now Circle put USDC wherever people already were: on Ethereum, Solana, Base and Tron. Those chains competed for the business while Circle stayed neutral, which suited a company selling a dollar meant to work anywhere. Now it builds the ground its own coin runs on, instead of renting it.

Gas on Arc is paid in USDC, so you'll never need a second token to move the first. Transactions finish in under a second.

Anyone can put an app on Arc without asking, but the machines that confirm the blocks are a known list. BlackRock is on it. So are Visa, Mastercard, the DTCC and Standard Chartered.

More than a hundred applications were live on day one, Aave and Morpho among them, next to Pump.fun and a memecoin launcher Circle has been loud about supporting. DefiLlama counted about $300 million across eight protocols by the afternoon. Wallets can sign with post-quantum keys from the start, which matters to the sort of institution that has to plan twenty years out.

Nikhil Chandhok, who runs product and technology at Circle, says moving activity off Ethereum onto Arc doesn't grow the company's market. So the bet is on business that barely exists yet: software agents paying and hiring each other, local currencies swapping into USDC, and institutional trades that would never go on a fully public ledger.

Tether already runs its own chain, Stripe has Tempo, and a chain called Plasma is going after the same payments money. If you're holding USDC, the company that issues it now also runs a chain underneath it. The same firm picks the validators and writes the rules for freezing a balance.

MACRO · Desk

The Fed raised rates. Treasury yields went higher.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point yesterday, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It's the first increase in three years and the vote was twelve to nothing. Most of the officials wrote down at least one more before the year is out.

A White House spokesman called the decision rather unfortunate.

The part that touches what you own is the bond market. Yields were rising while Kevin Warsh was still taking questions.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.003%, its highest since July 2007, and the two-year Treasury yield went to 4.725%. Lending to the US government for ten years now pays 5%, and that's the competition for everything else you could buy.

Bitcoin, ether and Solana all closed higher anyway.

REGULATION · Desk

Selig says the CFTC will write the rules.

The crypto bill died in the Senate on Tuesday. On Wednesday the people who actually regulate crypto carried on as though it hadn't.

Michael Selig, who chairs the CFTC, called the vote unfortunate and said his agency will write the rules for crypto markets using powers it already holds. Most of what the bill promised is already moving. He and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins signed a cooperation agreement in March and published a joint list sorting crypto into five buckets, and in August the SEC put its own framework out for comment.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and six colleagues put out a statement calling the week "a setback, but not the end of that important work."

A future chair can rewrite agency guidance without asking anyone. Undoing a law would take another act of Congress. So the rules covering what you can buy now depend on who runs two agencies.

🎲   The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes. Not a poll, a market.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? 55%
  
NEW  ·  The question is whether the Fed leaves rates where they are when it meets again on 28 October, and traders put that at 55%. Set it against the projections the Fed published yesterday, in which most officials wrote down at least one more increase before the year ends. Half the people betting on October think the rise we just got was the last one for a while.
👁   What to Watch
01 South Korean police are building cases against Polymarket users. Police have opened criminal cases against 26 people over about $12.7 million of alleged illegal betting, and 18 are already with prosecutors. Enforcement has moved from the platforms to the people using them.
02 A House committee moved the bitcoin reserve bill forward. The House Financial Services Committee advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act, which would write Trump's permanent bitcoin holdings into law. The contract on a US national bitcoin reserve before 2027 reads 6%.
03 Oil fell hard on the day the Fed raised rates. Brent crude dropped about 3% to just under $106, its first real fall since the Strait of Hormuz closed. The strait is still shut, and cheaper crude weakens the case for more rate rises.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $76,416, up 0.77%. Ether is $2,423.98 and Solana $98.92, both up as well. All three rose on the day the Fed raised rates.
About $320 million of bitcoin left the Liquid Network. A bug in how the Bitcoin sidechain stored its verification checks let unbacked coins pass as real, and about 4,000 BTC left through the ordinary withdrawal route. No signing key was broken, and roughly 3,400 of those coins came back a day later from someone claiming on the chain to be a whitehat.
Celsius is suing BitMEX for $495 million. The bankruptcy estate of the collapsed lender filed in Manhattan federal court on 12 September, alleging fraud and market manipulation.
Kevin Warsh, chair of the Federal Reserve: "We removed a dose of accommodation." That was his description of yesterday's quarter-point rise.
Fear and Greed: 51, Neutral, down 18 points. The index fell out of Greed and into Neutral. That reading was taken yesterday morning, hours before the Fed announced, so nobody in it had seen the decision.
📒   Viv’s Notebook
Viv’s Notebook: wrong question first
How to think about risk before you buy crypto
Crypto is a high-risk asset class, and most people work out the upside first. In this week’s Notebook, Viv goes through what he wants settled before he buys anything. Whether he’s trading or investing, how much he can genuinely afford to lose, and the one he thinks most people skip, which is deciding in advance what would make him sell.
Watch the full Notebook
Washington spent the week deciding what crypto is allowed to be, and Circle shipped a blockchain anyway.
TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what moved and why; what you do next is entirely yours. We read markets for a living, which isn’t the same thing as knowing what they’ll do tomorrow.
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