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GM. This is The Crossover.
Last week it was the biggest exchange that got robbed; this weekend it was the tools people run so they never need one.
Bitcoin

BTCPay Server told its operators to shut down

An empty brown leather wallet lying open on a black background

BTCPay Server is the free software a bitcoin merchant runs on their own machine to take payments without a middleman. On Sunday night its team said attackers are sweeping the hot wallets on those servers (the wallets that keep spending keys online) and told everyone running one to shut it down until the investigation is finished. The alert didn't say which versions are affected, and there's no patch yet.

On Saturday an attacker asked b14g, a bitcoin staking service on the Core network, to withdraw zero tokens from 91 positions that weren't theirs. Core's staking code reads zero as "withdraw everything," and b14g let the requests through, according to Bitquery. About 97 million CORE left, worth around $1.5 million.

The same day Talis Protocol, an NFT marketplace on Injective, said a contract bug let an attacker take about 5,700 NFTs held in escrow and sell them into open offers.

None of the three was an exchange. Thursday's Binance theft took $6.3 billion and was the only story in crypto for three days.

This weekend's were small by comparison, and each one was a tool people use instead of an exchange. One is the payment processor you host yourself, one is the staking contract you trust to count, and one holds your NFT while a sale goes through. Self-custody means you hold the keys, and the software around the keys can still be broken.

We don't know yet whether the BTCPay problem is a flaw in the code or a lot of badly set up servers. Either way, if you run an instance or pay a shop that does, that hot wallet is the target right now. Shut it down, move what's in it to a cold wallet (keys kept offline, and untouched in all three incidents), and wait for the team to say it's safe.

Ask Viv
Ask Viv: What's the difference between Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and altcoins?
What’s the Difference Between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stablecoins and Altcoins?
Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and altcoins all get called crypto, and they are built to do very different jobs. In this Ask Viv, Viv takes the four in turn: scarce digital money, a network that other people build applications on, coins meant to hold a steady dollar value, and the wide field of alternatives to Bitcoin. That last group runs from serious projects with real users to coins with very little behind them. He ends on the question to ask before you look at a price: what is this asset actually designed to do?
Watch the full Ask Viv
Markets

Binance reopened and $3.6 billion left in nine hours

Binance switched withdrawals back on Sunday, bitcoin first, and in the first nine and a half hours customers took out a net $3.64 billion. Binance says that is 2.1% of the $171 billion it holds and that the rush slowed after the first spike. DefiLlama shows its wallets down about $6.2 billion between our Sunday and Monday snapshots, with bitcoin up about 1% in between, so Binance's figure is the smallest on offer.

The US Secret Service is investigating and says it froze a large part of the haul within minutes. The thieves moved about $242 million of the rest through Tron in two days, more than half of it onward through bridges.

The full proof of reserves is due tomorrow. If you left coins on Binance, the button worked and most people didn't press it. Tomorrow's report says whether the backing is whole.

On-chain

Fifty companies refused to let OKXICE tokenize their shares

Fifty companies have now told OKXICE, the tokenized-stock venue run by OKX and the New York Stock Exchange's owner ICE, that it may not trade tokens of their shares. Nvidia, Nike, Costco and Reddit were among twelve added in a notice dated October 30.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan were already there. When the list first surfaced on October 17 it had nine names.

The SEC's innovation exemption is the rule that lets a crypto venue tokenize listed stocks, and a company that objects inside the window takes its shares out of reach.

So the biggest names in the index are opting out, a week after the DTCC (the body that holds nearly all US securities) started minting tokens of its own. If you were hoping to buy tokenized Nvidia on a crypto venue, Nvidia has said no, and the SEC's rule is what let it say so.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November? 52%
Down 17 pts. The bet is whether WTI crude, the US oil benchmark, trades at $110 a barrel at any point in November. On our pulls the $110 market read 59% on Saturday, 69% on Sunday and 52% this morning; that is a 17-point fall in a day and nothing on our file says why. Oil matters to your coins because the dollar, rates and oil are all rising at once, and Raoul Pal said on Sunday that crypto needs all three to ease.
🔭 What to Watch
Today's bitcoin fund numbers. Farside publishes the US spot bitcoin funds' Monday flows after the close, the first session since Friday's $643.2 million outflow. A second day of selling says October's buyers have turned; a day of buying says Friday was month-end tidying.
Tuesday's midterms. Americans vote tomorrow, and on Polymarket, the prediction market, traders put the Democrats' chance of taking the Senate at 72%. Senator Bill Hagerty said this week the government's roughly 200,000-bitcoin reserve could grow once Congress passes the market-structure bill, so the Senate decides that too.
Strategy's Monday filing. Michael Saylor's Strategy usually files its bitcoin purchases on a Monday, and Saylor posted his usual Sunday hint. Its holdings have sat at 848,517 bitcoin since the October 29 results, so today's filing shows whether it kept buying under $80,000.
📈 The Tape
• Bitcoin $78,262, up 1.04% in 24 hours. Ether $2,272 (up 0.8%) and solana $94.32 (down 1.1%) at our 00:12 UTC reading. That is the fourth daily reading running under $80,000 for bitcoin, and the highest of the four.
• Wall Street is buying insurance on its AI bet. Investors and tech executives are paying for options and credit-default swaps (contracts that pay out if a company's debt goes bad) against an AI unwind, and Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom just put up $5 billion of Meta's $25 billion stock sale. Bitcoin is down about 6% since October 1 on our snapshots, in step with the AI names.
• Raoul Pal doesn't buy the AI bust. "Everyone has decided the AI trade is finished... I don't buy a word of it," he posted on Sunday, while the people running those companies were buying insurance against exactly that.
• Itaú is the first bank under Brazil's new crypto rules. Brazil's largest private bank told the central bank on Tuesday that it will run crypto trading and custody under Resolution 520, ahead of the October 30 deadline. It has sold crypto to customers since December, so the paperwork is catching up with the product.
• Fear & Greed: 37, Fear, up 3 on the day. The reading covers Sunday, the day Binance reopened, across which bitcoin went from $77,479 to $78,262 on our snapshots. It's the second rise in a row after Thursday's 21-point drop.
By Wednesday morning we’ll know whether Binance’s backing is whole and who runs the Senate.
TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you which servers to switch off; what you do with your own keys is entirely your call. We’re analysts, not your sysadmin, and we can’t run the shutdown script for you.
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