The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2pm New York time today. Bitcoin went into the morning at $80,810, up 1%, which is about what its two biggest buyers paid for theirs.

Glassnode, the on-chain data firm, says the average spot ETF holder paid about $81,500 a bitcoin and the average bitcoin treasury company paid about $80,200. Strategy alone holds 848,517 coins.

Bitcoin has spent two days just under the first number and right on the second. Glassnode says a daily close under $80,000 would put the average holder in both groups at a loss.

One of those buyers has already stepped back. Glassnode's data shows company purchases since June running at under 10% of their November 2024 peak, and Strategy bought no bitcoin at all last week, its first week without a purchase in five. The ETFs are still there, buying $110.3 million on Monday after selling on Thursday and Friday.

Ki Young Ju runs the data firm CryptoQuant. He counts about $119 million of leveraged bets on a rise that get closed out just under $80,000, another $109 million at $77,000 and $88 million at $73,000. That's roughly half a billion dollars, and none of it has been closed out yet.

Traders on Polymarket put the odds of a hold today at 95%. They put a December increase at 77%, so the statement and the press conference matter more than the decision. Lyn Alden, the investment strategist, said this week she thinks the bottom is in for this cycle. Bear markets often end, she said, "just because all the money that would sell has sold."

Watch $80,000 on tonight's daily close. Above it, the biggest holders are roughly even and the leverage stays put. Below it, the companies that used to buy the dip have stopped, and the ETFs are the only big buyer left.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Utah on Tuesday, the tenth state it has taken to court to keep prediction markets under federal rules alone. Last week Utah had sued Kalshi, the event-betting exchange, and the trading firms that quote its odds. The federal complaint asks a court to stop Utah investigating or enforcing against markets the CFTC regulates.

The same day the NBA, the third league to do so after MLB and the NHL, named Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction market exchanges and signed an information-sharing deal with the CFTC. The NFL hasn't signed, and has told the Supreme Court states should regulate sports contracts.

Polymarket has its own problem six days before the midterms. NPR reports it investigated dozens of bets on its election markets and referred at least two to the CFTC.

If you use either venue, courts still decide which bets Americans may make.

Robinhood reported its third quarter on Tuesday. Revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% on a year ago. Crypto revenue was $120 million, up 20% on the quarter but down 55% on last year, and crypto trading inside the app fell 48% on a year ago to $21 billion.

Robinhood Chain, the company's own blockchain, finished its first full quarter on mainnet. It handled more than $80 billion of trading on its decentralized exchanges, collected more than $50 million in fees, and contributed $26 million of that crypto revenue.

Strip it out and crypto trading revenue fell 6% from the second quarter. Robinhood's prediction-market revenue also grew fast.

If you hold HOOD or trade on it, the broker is starting to earn from running the rails rather than from your trades, and its customers trade less crypto in the app than a year ago.