| THE BRIEFING |
| GM. This is The Crossover. |
| Bitcoin went through eighty thousand overnight, and two large holders are still moving coins to the exchanges. |
Bhutan and Wintermute moved bitcoin to the exchanges.

Bitcoin is $80,700 this morning. It was $79,600 on our reading just before one, and $64,432 seven days ago. That is $16,268 added in a week.
The round number had been the whole conversation for three days. Then it went.
It also climbed back above its 200-day average last week, the average of the last two hundred days, a line it had spent months underneath. Ecoinometrics called that the strongest evidence yet that the recovery is real, then called the move crowded and stretched in the same report.
Now the part underneath. The Kingdom of Bhutan and Wintermute, one of the largest trading firms in crypto, have both been sending bitcoin to exchanges.
You move coins to an exchange for one reason. You are getting ready to sell them.
So far it has not mattered. The American funds that hold bitcoin for ordinary investors took in about $1.9 billion in the week to Friday, their best week since October last year, and that money covered everything the two of them sent.
Glassnode adds the awkward detail. Futures activity is high and buyers are leaning on borrowed money, while the slow long-term buyers have stayed comparatively quiet. Borrowed money moves fast in both directions.
There is a wider version of the same story in the data. The share of bitcoin sitting at a profit is well above its usual range, and the same report has holders switching from taking losses to taking gains.
The two we can name are Bhutan and Wintermute.
One more thing about that $1.9 billion. It covers the week to Friday, and there is no settled figure yet for anything after that, so the claim that the selling is being absorbed is solid as of last week and untested since.
Bhutan and Wintermute do not take weekends off. If the next number comes in smaller, the same selling meets less buying.
A blown-up fund is why AI stocks fell.
Leopold Aschenbrenner ran a fund called Situational Awareness. At the end of June it held $20.2 billion of American shares, more than half of that in two memory chip makers, SanDisk and Micron. He ran it at up to four times leverage, so every dollar he had controlled four dollars of stock.
Chips sold off in July. The fund lost roughly 67% in a month, from a peak near $45 billion down to about $10 billion, and the whole book went to Ken Griffin's Citadel late in July at 40 to 50 cents on the dollar. By 11 August, Citadel had already sold more than 80% of it back into the market across over a hundred separate trades.
Nebius, Micron and Bloom Energy all kept falling while their own numbers got better. A forced seller does not care what the numbers say.
Coinbase put Nvidia and Apple on Base.
Coinbase switched on tokenized stocks on Base yesterday morning. Four names to start with: Nvidia, Meta, Apple and Google. Base founder Jesse Pollak says thousands are coming.
Each token is a claim on one real share, held by a broker called Alpaca, rather than a synthetic copy that tracks the price from a distance. Dividends are handled by the token itself, so a share can sit inside a lending app as collateral without breaking when a payment lands. They trade at four in the morning and on Sundays.
Coinbase is late. Tokenized shares are already about a $3 billion market, with Ondo Finance holding around a third of it and Kraken and Binance behind that.
If you have ever wanted to borrow against Apple stock at two in the morning, that is now a thing a person can do on a public chain.
| 🎲 The Odds | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 👁 What to Watch | ||||||
|
| 📟 The Tape | ||||||||||
|
|
Somebody is sending coins to the exchanges and somebody else is buying every one of them.
TC
|
| This is The Crossover. We work out what moved and why; what you do about it is entirely yours. We are much better at explaining yesterday than at booking tomorrow. |