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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Bitcoin went through eighty thousand overnight, and two large holders are still moving coins to the exchanges.
BITCOIN · Desk

Bhutan and Wintermute moved bitcoin to the exchanges.

Bitcoin is $80,700 this morning. It was $79,600 on our reading just before one, and $64,432 seven days ago. That is $16,268 added in a week.

The round number had been the whole conversation for three days. Then it went.

It also climbed back above its 200-day average last week, the average of the last two hundred days, a line it had spent months underneath. Ecoinometrics called that the strongest evidence yet that the recovery is real, then called the move crowded and stretched in the same report.

Now the part underneath. The Kingdom of Bhutan and Wintermute, one of the largest trading firms in crypto, have both been sending bitcoin to exchanges.

You move coins to an exchange for one reason. You are getting ready to sell them.

So far it has not mattered. The American funds that hold bitcoin for ordinary investors took in about $1.9 billion in the week to Friday, their best week since October last year, and that money covered everything the two of them sent.

Glassnode adds the awkward detail. Futures activity is high and buyers are leaning on borrowed money, while the slow long-term buyers have stayed comparatively quiet. Borrowed money moves fast in both directions.

There is a wider version of the same story in the data. The share of bitcoin sitting at a profit is well above its usual range, and the same report has holders switching from taking losses to taking gains.

The two we can name are Bhutan and Wintermute.

One more thing about that $1.9 billion. It covers the week to Friday, and there is no settled figure yet for anything after that, so the claim that the selling is being absorbed is solid as of last week and untested since.

Bhutan and Wintermute do not take weekends off. If the next number comes in smaller, the same selling meets less buying.

MARKETS · Desk

A blown-up fund is why AI stocks fell.

Leopold Aschenbrenner ran a fund called Situational Awareness. At the end of June it held $20.2 billion of American shares, more than half of that in two memory chip makers, SanDisk and Micron. He ran it at up to four times leverage, so every dollar he had controlled four dollars of stock.

Chips sold off in July. The fund lost roughly 67% in a month, from a peak near $45 billion down to about $10 billion, and the whole book went to Ken Griffin's Citadel late in July at 40 to 50 cents on the dollar. By 11 August, Citadel had already sold more than 80% of it back into the market across over a hundred separate trades.

Nebius, Micron and Bloom Energy all kept falling while their own numbers got better. A forced seller does not care what the numbers say.

ON-CHAIN · Desk

Coinbase put Nvidia and Apple on Base.

Coinbase switched on tokenized stocks on Base yesterday morning. Four names to start with: Nvidia, Meta, Apple and Google. Base founder Jesse Pollak says thousands are coming.

Each token is a claim on one real share, held by a broker called Alpaca, rather than a synthetic copy that tracks the price from a distance. Dividends are handled by the token itself, so a share can sit inside a lending app as collateral without breaking when a payment lands. They trade at four in the morning and on Sundays.

Coinbase is late. Tokenized shares are already about a $3 billion market, with Ondo Finance holding around a third of it and Kraken and Binance behind that.

If you have ever wanted to borrow against Apple stock at two in the morning, that is now a thing a person can do on a public chain.

🎲   The Odds
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? 43%
  
UP  ·  Every bitcoin price bet on Polymarket, where people put real money on events, rose with the price. The $100,000 version of this one went from 24% to 33% in a day. $95,000 is around 18% above this morning's price.
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? 23%
  
-5 PT  ·  Solana is $101.61 this morning, up a third over seven days. The chance of it falling back to $60 dropped five points in a day, from 28%.
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? 7%
  
+2 PT  ·  XRP trades near $1.47, so this one asks whether it more than triples before the year is out. Two days ago the answer was 5%. It is 7% now, which is still close to no.
👁   What to Watch
01 Phantom drops Sui on 24 September. Phantom is one of the most used crypto wallets, and it is ending support for the Sui chain next month. It dropped Monad weeks ago. Money deposited on Sui sits about 82% below its peak, and a chain that loses its front door has a much harder time getting that money back.
02 Solana's validator vote on issuance. Solana's validators, the operators running the machines that keep the network alive, are reported to be voting on three proposals this week. The one that matters doubles the pace at which new solana supply is wound down, lifting that rate from 15% a year to 30%. Fewer new coins get made from here if it passes, and the vote is still open.
03 Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday. Central bankers meet in Wyoming every August, and what gets said there usually sets the tone into September. It is the only dated event left this week, and traders will read every line of it. A tough line on inflation would sit badly against seven days of buying that assumed money is about to get cheaper.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $80,700, up through $80,000 since our overnight reading. Ether was $2,493.94 and solana $101.61 when we last looked, both up on the day. Solana is back through $100, and over seven days both of them are still ahead of bitcoin.
Strategy raised $2.01 billion selling its own shares, parked $1.59 billion of it in a flexible cash pool, and bought no bitcoin at all last week. Its holding is unchanged at 840,447 coins. The biggest corporate buyer in the market has moved from buying to housekeeping. Strive bought 1,110 coins for $81.5 million in the same week, which tells you the buying is spreading out and thinning at the top.
Trump said the CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid onshore in a fully compliant way. Hyperliquid is an exchange that runs on its own chain and has operated outside the American regulatory system. A US regulator saying it wants to bring one of those inside is new.
Lyn Alden, on where we are: "We’ve likely bottomed here." She said it yesterday. Two months ago almost nobody was willing to put that in writing.
Fear & Greed: 73, Greed, up seven points. That is Sunday's reading, the freshest one we hold. It is the highest we have recorded in this run, and it was 41 a week ago Tuesday.
Somebody is sending coins to the exchanges and somebody else is buying every one of them.
TC
This is The Crossover. We work out what moved and why; what you do about it is entirely yours. We are much better at explaining yesterday than at booking tomorrow.