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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
The funds that sat out bitcoin’s run last week bought nearly a billion dollars of it on Monday.
BITCOIN · Desk

Bitcoin funds took in $999 million on Monday.

A stylised illustration of money flowing into bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

The US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million on Monday. That is the most they have taken in on any day in our records, which start in April. BlackRock's IBIT took $381 million, ARK's fund $289 million and Fidelity's $239 million, and no fund had money go out.

Yesterday we told you the big funds had not driven this rally. The week to 18 September finished up just $6.1 million, after investors pulled $746 million out on the two days of the Fed meeting. Now they are buying.

Ether funds took in $270 million on Monday, also a record in our figures. Ether still slipped 0.2% overnight to $2,762 and has trailed bitcoin for two sessions running.

Bitcoin itself has barely moved since. It is $86,476 this morning, up 0.4%, a day after it reached its highest price since January. The fund buying landed on the day of the jump, and the price has held since rather than climbed.

All of this is happening while the Federal Reserve is raising rates. It raised them a week ago, the first rise since 2023, and St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said this week that more rises are likely needed. On Polymarket, the bet on another quarter-point rise in October reads 54%.

Higher rates usually take money away from things like bitcoin. The funds bought a record amount on Monday anyway, in a week when the Fed is still pushing rates up. These buyers are not waiting for cheaper money.

If you own bitcoin, watch whether the funds keep buying at anything like this pace. If they do, this rally has a steady buyer behind it. Tuesday's figure comes out tonight, and we'll have it for you tomorrow.

STABLECOINS · Desk

Binance bought $100 million of Circle shares.

Binance, the world's biggest crypto exchange, now owns part of Circle. Circle is the company that issues the USDC stablecoin. A filing Circle made with the SEC on Tuesday shows Binance bought about 1.24 million shares at $80.84 each, 5% below where Circle's shares traded before the sale. It can't sell or hedge them for up to two years.

The two also signed a five-year deal to put USDC in front of Binance users, with a focus on emerging markets. Circle will pay Binance a monthly fee tied to how much USDC its users keep in certain wallets. It is their third USDC deal since late 2024 and it replaces the other two.

If you hold stablecoins on Binance, expect USDC to be pushed harder there. Binance now makes money when Circle's share price rises, as well as from the fees.

REGULATION · Desk

The CFTC is examining Kalshi's ether futures trades.

The US futures regulator is examining trades on the prediction market Kalshi. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday night that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is looking at claims Kalshi inflated its volume in ether perpetual futures, contracts that track ether's price with no end date. In the trading records, the same trade of about $5,500 appears over and over.

Kalshi says wash trading, where one party trades with itself to fake activity, does not happen on its platform. It says the repeated trades came from market makers posting fixed prices that faster traders then took.

On the same day the CFTC warned the exchanges it oversees that contracts on whether someone will say a certain word are open to manipulation.

If you pick where to trade by volume, treat any venue's headline number as a claim until someone checks it.

🎲   The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes. Not a poll, a market.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? 48%
  
+25 PT  ·  This is the bet that US crude falls to $85 a barrel before September ends, and traders have it at 48%, up from about one in four two days ago. Brent, the international price, fell for a fifth straight day on Tuesday to $99.25. A report said Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade.
👁   What to Watch
01 Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Washington from today. The talks run to Friday, with a joint press conference on Thursday, and the US-China trade truce ends on 10 November. The Polymarket bet on a tariff deal by 30 September reads 74%.
02 Iran's president speaks at the UN General Assembly today. On Tuesday Trump told the same hall he could "annihilate" Iran but was open to peace. Any word on the Strait of Hormuz moves oil, and oil feeds the inflation behind the Fed's rate rises.
03 Coinbase customers can ask for shares in Oura's IPO this week. It is the first IPO Coinbase has offered its US retail customers, and nobody is promised shares. Oura, the wearables maker, has filed to sell at $40 to $44 a share.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $86,476, up 0.4%. Ether slipped 0.2% to $2,762 and Solana 0.2% to $118.91, a quiet day after Monday's jump.
Zcash rose 9.7% in a day. Messari counted more than $23 billion moving on the Zcash network in its latest week, the most since 2021.
Coinbase now offers fixed-rate loans against bitcoin. Borrowers get USDC at a rate set on day one, through Morpho's fixed-term lending on Base. Coinbase's older Morpho loans float, so their cost rises when demand to borrow jumps.
CFTC chair Michael Selig on where markets are going. "With developments like tokenization, on-chain finance, and 24/7 trading, the next decade will likely bring more change to financial markets than the previous several decades combined." He said it on Tuesday at the New York Fed, the same day his agency warned about word-guessing contracts.
Fear and Greed: 71, Greed, down seven points. It read 78, Extreme Greed, on Tuesday. Today's reading was taken over the same session as the prices above.
🎯   The Call
Twelve months of one coin’s price, with the numbers taken off. Which coin is it?
A line chart of one coin’s daily price over the last twelve months, with the price axis removed.
Bitcoin
Ether
Solana
Nearly a billion dollars went into the bitcoin funds on Monday, and the price has barely moved since.
TC
This is The Crossover. We read the filings and count the flows; what you do with your money is yours to decide. We’d tell you where bitcoin goes next if we knew, and we don’t.
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