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| Investors pulled $484.9 million out of US bitcoin funds on Wednesday 7 October, and bitcoin sits at $81,793 this morning. |
Bitcoin funds lost $485 million in one day
On Wednesday 7 October, investors pulled $484.9 million out of US bitcoin ETFs (funds that hold bitcoin and trade like shares), according to Farside, which tracks the flows every day. The Federal Reserve published its September meeting minutes the same day. They say most officials expect another rate increase by the end of the year.
BlackRock's IBIT lost $207.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC lost $105.1 million and ARKB, run by Ark and 21Shares, lost $101.7 million. On Tuesday 6 October the funds had taken in $118.8 million.
When investors sell fund shares, the fund sells the bitcoin behind them to pay out, so these exits add to selling in the market. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday, "I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal."
Two weeks ago the money was moving the other way. In the week of 21 to 25 September the funds took in $2.39 billion. Last week they took in a net $241.1 million. Through Wednesday this week they have lost $455.9 million.
A second day of exits looks likely. A post on X by the reporter WuBlockchain puts Thursday's outflow from bitcoin funds at $244 million and from ether funds at $72.5 million, the eighth day in a row that ether funds lost money. Farside's table doesn't show Thursday yet, so treat those two numbers as unconfirmed. Its own figures put the ether funds' losses at $568.8 million over the last seven sessions.
Bitcoin is $81,793 this morning, down 1.9% in a day and the lowest of our fourteen daily readings since 26 September.
If you hold bitcoin, the fund buying that marked September has stopped, and nothing has replaced it yet. Farside's table for Thursday will be the first confirmed number on whether the exits slowed.
NFL backs New Jersey against Kalshi at Supreme Court
The NFL filed a brief at the US Supreme Court on Thursday, siding with New Jersey in its fight with Kalshi. The league argues that sports contracts are gambling, and that states can regulate them even though Kalshi says federal commodities law covers them. Kalshi is the US venue where you buy a contract on whether something happens.
The league says $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets on the season's opening Sunday involved NFL games. We've seen reports of the filing, not the filing itself.
Federal appeals courts have split on the question, and the Supreme Court hasn't agreed to hear it. The NBA opens its season on 20 October and hasn't said which side it's on. If you trade sports contracts on Polymarket or Kalshi, the Supreme Court may decide whether states or federal regulators oversee them.
Vitalik Buterin tells holders not to rush wallet moves
Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, warned this week that AI-driven math could break ECDSA, the signature scheme (the math that proves a wallet's owner approved a transaction) behind most crypto wallets, "in the worst case in months not years." He called for a "bunker mode": a calm move into fresh addresses that have never exposed their public keys.
Vitalik Buterin agreed the threat is real. He also wrote, "I don't recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today," and said he has lost more money in botched migrations than in all hacks combined. We've seen his posts only as reported.
If your coins sit in an address that has never sent a transaction, its public key hasn't been exposed. A hurried move to a new wallet is the bigger risk today.
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In Pro today Funds are selling ether. Bitmine will stop buying. On Wednesday Tom Lee, the chairman of Bitmine, told a conference in Singapore that the company will stop buying ether once it owns 5% of all of it. Bitmine is a listed company that has paid for its ether by selling its own shares. It held 6,016,414 ether on 4 October, and Lee said about 100,000 more would reach the limit. At Thursday's price that is about $250 million. Ether closed Tuesday at $2,699 and Thursday at $2,474, down 8.3%. Bitcoin fell 4.5% over the same two days. The reading going round is that ether has lost its buyer. That buyer is the smaller of two. The US spot ether funds lost $201.9 million to withdrawals on Tuesday and $160.9 million on Wednesday. Together that is more than the $250 million Bitmine has left to spend. The funds have now had withdrawals on seven sessions in a row, from 29 September to 7 October, $568.8 million in all. Thursday's figure isn't in our record yet. Our record of these funds starts on 2 April, and this is the third-longest run of withdrawals in it. The two longer ones lasted 17 sessions from 11 May and nine from 17 June. They drained the funds at about $53 million and $41 million a day. This run is averaging $81 million, and Tuesday's and Wednesday's were the second- and third-largest single days in the whole record. Ether fell 20% over the first of those runs and 12% over the second. Four weeks after the second ended it was 22% higher. Which of those the current run resembles depends on what the funds paid, and we can estimate that.
The rest of this one is for Pro readers. It picks up where this stops. |
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Bitcoin funds took in money for most of September, and through Wednesday this week they’ve lost $455.9 million.
TC
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| We read the filings so you don’t have to, but we can’t read the future, and what you do with your money is entirely your call. |
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