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Bitcoin fell through $70,000 at three this morning, and almost all of the money wiped out on the way down had been betting on a rise.
Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell through $70,000 overnight

A deflated balloon made of concrete, slumped on a teal backdrop

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 at about three o'clock this morning UTC and touched $68,943 on Binance. In the four hours around the break, traders had $622 million of bets closed out against them, and nearly nine-tenths of that money ($549 million) was betting the price would rise. It is $67,992 as we write, down 7.5% in a day and lower than any daily reading we have taken since August.

On Thursday Nvidia's board accepted Jensen Huang's resignation as CEO, effective immediately, and put CFO Colette Kress in charge for now. Traders sold crypto along with the AI stocks. Bitcoin fell to about $71,300, and $750 million of bets were wiped out over the day, $634 million of them on a rise.

We can find no news behind the overnight leg. The people who had rebuilt their bets on a bounce after Thursday were sold out of them in turn, and this second flush was faster than the first and more one-sided.

Who was buying? Not the funds. Investors took $299.8 million out of the US spot bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday, the fifth day in a row of money leaving, on Farside's figures.

Not Strategy either. Michael Saylor's company paid $75,456 a coin on average, so it is about $7,500 below its cost on each of its 850,364 coins. Strategy says index funds hold about 13 million of its shares, 3.1% of the company, and they have until 30 November to sell them.

If you hold bitcoin, you're now below the price the two biggest buyers of the last two years paid, and both have stopped buying. What took the price down overnight was forced selling by people who were betting on a rise. Thursday's flush didn't clear them out, and we don't know yet whether this morning's did.

Markets

Kalshi seeks $65 billion while Polymarket cuts staff

Kalshi is the US prediction market where you buy a contract on whether something happens. Bloomberg reported it is in talks to raise money at a $65 billion valuation, weeks after it closed a round at $40 billion.

Polymarket, the rival built on crypto, confirmed to Reuters that it laid off staff and ended contractor deals from 4 November. Over the past 30 days Kalshi handled about $17.7 billion of bets to Polymarket's $5.9 billion, on DefiLlama's count.

Kalshi also ended Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory role after his firm, 1789 Capital, led Polymarket's $1 billion raise. And on Wednesday Louisiana's attorney general Liz Murrill sued Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini for taking event bets in her state. Kalshi sued the state back the same day.

If you use Polymarket, the venue built on crypto is now the smaller one, and a state has just sued the whole sector.

Regulation

DOJ says it seized $1.2 billion from Binance hack

The US Justice Department says it has seized $1.2 billion of digital assets connected to the Binance hack, the $6 billion theft it blames on North Korea. "North Korea's government bankrolls its rogue regime and illicit weapons program through cryptocurrency theft," said M. Scott Proctor, a deputy assistant attorney general for national security.

Binance says it has covered 100% of what its users lost, and on Wednesday it published a new proof-of-reserves snapshot, its public tally of what it holds for customers. It has not said where the money came from.

The same day the department said a darknet drug sweep, Operation TorNado, took $234 million in crypto and cash and arrested 354 people.

If you kept coins on Binance, the exchange covered your loss, and about a fifth of the largest theft on record has been traced and taken back. Someone whose seed phrase is stolen gets neither.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in November? 73%
Down 22 pts. The bet is that US crude oil, WTI, trades at $85 or below at some point before the end of November. Traders on Polymarket (the prediction market) had this at 95% on Tuesday and have it at 73% this morning, with about $13,000 wagered and 17 days left. Cheaper oil would take some pressure off inflation and off the Fed, and the people betting on it are a good deal less sure of it than they were three days ago.
🔭 What to Watch
Thursday's and Friday's bitcoin fund figures. Investors took $299.8 million out of the US bitcoin funds on Wednesday, the fifth day in a row, on Farside's figures. The two days since aren't published yet; they show whether investors put money back after the fall through $70,000 or took more out.
Strategy's Monday filing. Michael Saylor's company reports its bitcoin buying most Monday mornings, and bitcoin now sits about $7,500 below its average cost. A purchase at these prices, or another week spent buying back its own preferred shares instead, tells you how the biggest holder reads this.
Anthropic's stock market listing next week. The AI company is expected to list next week; Polymarket traders put the chance it happens by 19 November at 97%. Buyers of a debut most expect to be worth over $1.25 trillion have to raise the cash, while bitcoin is short of buyers.
📈 The Tape
• Bitcoin $67,992, down 7.5% in 24 hours. Ether $1,906 (down 6.8%) and solana $78.52 (down 5.2%) at our 05:57 UTC reading. Ether went under $2,000 on Thursday afternoon, thirteen minutes before bitcoin broke $72,000, and investors have taken money out of the US ether funds five days running.
• DTCC will put its tokenization service on Solana. The company that settles US stock trades plans to connect the service to Solana in the second half of 2027. It is the first public blockchain DTCC has named, and it has not said how the connection will work.
• Trezor cut about 80% of its resellers. The hardware-wallet maker found seed-stealing implants in three devices sold by one reseller, CryptoBilis, and says no customer lost money. Ledger's chief executive Pascal Gauthier told Bloomberg Television this week that "everybody will be hacked at some point."
• Gemini's trading volume fell 73% in a year. The Winklevoss exchange handled $4.5 billion of trades in the third quarter, revenue fell 19% to $40.9 million and its loss narrowed to $58.6 million. The shares are down about three quarters this year.
• Fear & Greed: 20, Extreme Fear, down 8 on the day. The reading was taken over Thursday, when bitcoin fell to about $71,000, and covers none of the overnight drop below $70,000.
In Pro today
Bitcoin fell below what this year's buyers paid

Bitcoin is at $67,992 this morning. It fell through $70,000 overnight, and it is now under the price that each of its three biggest groups of buyers this year paid: the investors in the US bitcoin funds, Strategy, and everyone who bought in the last five months.

Thursday's fall began when Nvidia's board accepted Jensen Huang's resignation, effective immediately, and AI shares fell. Exchanges closed more than $750 million of leveraged crypto bets over the day, most of them bets on a rise. Then, in the small hours of this morning, bitcoin went through $70,000 with no new piece of news behind it.

When a price falls under what everyone paid, the usual reading is that the fall is nearly done. The people who were going to give up have given up, the fear gauge reads 20 out of 100, and the usual advice is that extreme fear is the time to buy.

So set the price against the buyers. By our count from the daily flow figures, the funds' investors paid about $79,000 on average for the bitcoin they bought since August. Strategy's average cost, by its own report on Monday, is $75,456. Glassnode puts everyone who bought in the last five months at a loss on average as well.

There is one earlier stretch in our record where this happened. In May the funds' investors started selling while the price was still above what they had paid, and in the last week of the month the price went under it. If the usual reading were right, that was the moment to buy.

Read today’s Pro
The rest of this one is for Pro readers. It picks up where this stops.
Nobody stepped in to buy bitcoin overnight; on Monday we find out whether Saylor did.
TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you where the money went and who let go of it; whether you hold on is entirely your decision. We know a great deal about four in the morning and nothing at all about tomorrow.
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