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GM. This is The Crossover.
Bitcoin spent Thursday behaving like a chip stock, and anyone who bought it through a fund this week is back at the price they paid.
Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell 3.6% with the AI stocks on Thursday

Two padlocks locked through each other, one painted orange and one bare steel, lying tipped over together on a forest green backdrop

On Thursday Meta told investors, in a filing, that it has signed leases and contracts worth about $825 billion to build out its AI computing. Its shares fell 7%. The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and investors bought government bonds instead: the ten-year Treasury yield had its biggest one-day fall since the day Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023.

Bitcoin went with the AI shares. It fell 3.6% to $81,181 on our overnight reading. Ether fell 3.9% and solana 3.5%.

That same day Ki Young Ju, who runs the data firm CryptoQuant, wrote that an AI bubble bursting wouldn't hurt bitcoin much, because bitcoin missed the entire AI rally. It missed the rally and fell anyway.

If you bought bitcoin through a fund this week, you bought at the top of a three-day run of buying. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million on Monday, $23.2 million on Tuesday and $524.8 million on Wednesday. That's about $1.07 billion week to date. Thursday's figure isn't published yet. Glassnode, the on-chain data firm, puts the average price those funds' holders paid at about $81,500, and after Thursday the price sits on it.

Brent crude rose 4% on Thursday, to about $113 a barrel, after an attack on a Saudi civilian airport that Saudi Arabia blamed on Iran-backed Houthis. Oil above $110 keeps inflation high, and the Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday with traders expecting a hold.

So the fall in bond yields that would usually help bitcoin came from people running from risk, with no easing behind it. If you hold bitcoin, it's still trading like a tech stock on the days that hurt. Below about $81,500 the average fund holder is losing money, and that's where the price was overnight.

On-chain

HSBC put its own stablecoin into PayMe today

The South China Morning Post reports that HSBC began rolling out RedCoin, a stablecoin backed by Hong Kong dollars, to the more than 3.3 million people who use its PayMe payments app on Friday. It starts with transfers between people and payments to merchants, and it lives only inside PayMe and HSBC's Hong Kong mobile banking app. Lawrence Li, who runs PayMe, said the rollout comes in stages.

It lands a day after the OCC published America's first final stablecoin rule, and the same week Korea's government moved to write stablecoins into its foreign-exchange law.

If you hold dollar stablecoins, notice who issued RedCoin. A bank, inside an app its customers already open, with no exchange account and no wallet to set up. In Hong Kong, that's now the competition for Tether and Circle's USDC.

Markets

a16z dropped the word crypto from its fund

Andreessen Horowitz renamed its crypto fund a16z Frontier on Thursday and said it will now back "frontier startups", not only crypto ones. Chris Dixon, who leads the fund, wrote that blockchain infrastructure has "gradually receded into the background" and that "the label matters less now". It says it will keep investing in crypto.

The Information reported that Ali Yahya, the crypto team's first full-time hire in 2017, is leaving to start his own company. He isn't among the partners Dixon named to run the new fund.

The fund raised $2.2 billion five months ago, less than half the $4.5 billion it raised in 2022. Paradigm widened its fourth fund into AI and robotics in July, and Framework and Haun have done the same. If you own tokens from projects a16z backed, the backer is still there, but its next check has more places to go.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? 77%
Down 4 pts. The bet is whether the Fed raises rates again before the year ends, and it settles on December 10. Traders put the chance at 77%, down 4 points since yesterday, after Thursday's move into bonds pulled the ten-year yield below 5%. The separate market on the Fed holding rates at next Wednesday's meeting reads 94%, so the hike the crowd still expects is December's.
🔭 What to Watch
October's flash PMIs land this morning. S&P Global's survey of US purchasing managers is the first read on October factory and services activity. A weak number feeds Thursday's growth scare and the move into bonds that bitcoin fell alongside; a firm one takes some of that fear back.
The US answer to the Saudi airport attack. The US military is reported to be preparing options to strike Iran, with Brent already above $110. A strike pushes oil and inflation higher five days before the Fed decides; a Houthi stand-down lets both ease.
Swell's keys, and any contract upgrade. Swell is an Ethereum liquid-staking service whose operating keys appear compromised, and researchers now say the prices its swETH and rswETH tokens report are being inflated. About 2,513 ETH is lost only if an upgrade gets approved, so watch for a vote.
📈 The Tape
• Bitcoin $81,181, down 3.6% in 24 hours. Ether $2,382 (down 3.9%) and solana $103.42 (down 3.5%) at our 00:11 UTC reading. Bitcoin's number is the lowest of our daily readings since September 19.
• Starknet holders voted 93.5% to study leaving Ethereum. The poll was nonbinding and approves research into becoming an independent, quantum-resistant layer 1. Nothing moves until there is a plan, and StarkWare's draft whitepaper is due in November.
• Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade has no date again. Core developers postponed the October 26 run on the Hoodi testnet to check how EIP-8037, one of the upgrade's changes, behaves with contracts already live, and did not set a new one. Solana cut the time a transaction takes to become final to 150 milliseconds on Wednesday.
• Chinese prosecutors want the 61,896 bitcoin held in Britain. Prosecutors in Tianjin applied to confiscate the coins seized in the Qian fraud, about $5 billion at today's price, with victims to be repaid. Whoever ends up holding them decides whether they are ever sold.
• Fear & Greed: 50, Neutral, down 18 from 68. The reading covers Thursday, the day bitcoin went from $82,900 to $81,181 on our snapshots. That's Greed to Neutral in one session.
In Pro today
Bitcoin traded as an AI stock on Thursday

On Thursday Meta told investors it had signed leases and contracts worth about $825 billion to build out its AI business, and its shares fell 7%. CoreWeave, which rents out the computers that run AI models, fell by more.

The Nasdaq fell 2.6%. Bitcoin fell 3.6% over the same day and is $81,181 this morning, its lowest reading in a month.

Most of the shares in the S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday. The index fell because the AI names fell. The people selling those shares bought government bonds with the money, and the ten-year Treasury yield had its biggest one-day fall since the day Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023, to just under 5%.

Oil went the other way. Brent crude rose 4% to about $113 a barrel after an attack on a Saudi airport that Saudi Arabia blamed on Iran-backed Houthis. Bond yields usually rise when oil jumps like that. On Thursday they fell anyway, which tells you the bond buyers were looking for somewhere safe.

The bitcoin funds had been buying this week. On Wednesday they took in $524.8 million, their second big day of the week, and the week's total stood above $1 billion before Thursday opened. The figure for Thursday's session was not in our record when we wrote this.

So the week had two stories. The funds bought bitcoin on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, and then the AI shares fell and bitcoin fell with them, while most other shares rose and bonds were bought. Was Thursday bitcoin's bad day, or the AI shares' bad day with bitcoin along for it? And does one day like it say anything about the next week?

Read today’s Pro
The rest of this one is for Pro readers. It picks up where this stops.
A billion dollars went into the bitcoin funds in three days, and Thursday put the price back at what those buyers paid.
TC
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