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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Wall Street’s bitcoin funds bought another $714.7 million on Tuesday, and the price still went down.
BITCOIN · Desk

Bitcoin fell 2% as bond yields hit 5.1%.

A bitten golden apple resting on a stack of bond certificates.

The US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $714.7 million on Tuesday, their fourth straight day of buying. On Monday they took in $999 million, the most on any day in our records, which start in April.

BlackRock's IBIT took $350.3 million on Tuesday and Fidelity's fund $257.4 million, and again no fund had money go out. Ether funds took in $162.2 million on Tuesday.

Bitcoin fell anyway. It's $84,349 this morning, down 2.3% in a day. Ether is down 2.6% to $2,685 and Solana 3% to $115.09.

Nobody has put a single cause on the drop, and we won't pretend to have one. What we can see is the bond market. On Wednesday investors sold US government bonds hard.

The yield on the ten-year US government bond rose almost 0.15 percentage points to 5.113%, its highest since 2007. Fed governor Michael Barr said he expects more rate rises.

CME Group's FedWatch tool, which reads rate odds from futures prices, put the chance of another rise in October near 70%. FedWatch showed 55% the day before.

The Fed raised rates on 16 September for the first time since 2023. When a government bond pays 5.1% with almost no risk, fewer people need to take a chance on bitcoin to earn a return. US stocks fell on Wednesday too, the S&P 500 by 0.8%.

So the funds are buying and the price is still going down. We think that tells you the fund money is real, and that it isn't big enough on its own to carry bitcoin while rates are rising.

If you own bitcoin, watch the ten-year yield as closely as the fund numbers. Wednesday's fund figures come out tonight, and we'll have them tomorrow.

ON-CHAIN · Desk

US officials weigh pushing dollar stablecoins overseas.

The US government is considering a push to get people outside America using dollar stablecoins, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. People familiar with the plan said the Treasury, the State Department and the US International Development Finance Corporation could back stablecoin projects through joint ventures with private companies.

Officials want to keep the dollar as the world's main reserve currency and find more buyers for US government debt, according to the report. Stablecoin issuers hold most of their reserves in short-term Treasury bills, so every dollar of stablecoins bought abroad is lent, through the issuer, to the US government.

The report came on the day the ten-year yield hit its highest since 2007. Nothing has been decided.

If you hold USDC or USDT, you already do what the plan wants millions more people to do. You lend to the US Treasury, and the issuer keeps the interest.

MARKETS · Desk

Bitwise asked 15 giant investors about crypto.

Bitwise, the crypto fund manager, sat down earlier this year with senior investment staff at 15 of the world's largest institutions. They ranged from pension funds and endowments to hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds. It's the firm's first survey of this kind, and it published the results on Wednesday.

Crypto prices fell by more than half between October 2025 and April 2026. Not one of the 15 planned to cut its crypto holdings, Bitwise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan wrote.

The report names nobody, because the institutions asked it not to. It covers what they think of the spot ETFs, Solana against Ethereum, and bitcoin against gold.

Bitwise sells crypto funds to exactly these people, so read it with that in mind. It's still a rare look at the buyers behind the ETF numbers, and they say they're staying through a fall.

🎲   The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes. Not a poll, a market.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? 73%
  
NEW  ·  This is the bet that the yield on the ten-year US government bond reaches 5.2% at some point before 2027, and traders put it at 73%. The yield closed at 5.113% on Wednesday, so it needs less than a tenth of a percentage point more. Every step higher makes a safe bond a better-paying alternative to holding bitcoin.
👁   What to Watch
01 Trump and Xi Jinping hold a joint press conference today. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US-China trade truce now runs to 10 January. The Polymarket bet on a tariff deal by 30 September reads 82%, up from 74% yesterday.
02 Iran says it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz this week. Iranian officials told Qatari mediators they would do it if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, and Iranian state media has denied that timeline. Brent crude went back above $100 on Wednesday.
03 Senate Democrats want a hearing on prediction markets. Every Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee asked its chair, Sen. Tim Scott, to hold one. It comes a day after the CFTC's look at Kalshi's ether trades became public, and the chair decides whether it happens.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $84,349, down 2.3%. Ether fell 2.6% to $2,685 and Solana 3% to $115.09.
An attacker spent $20,199 on voting power, and the Cosmos Hub stopped for a day. The attacker staked it 12 minutes before a fast-tracked vote on Neutron, a chain in the Cosmos network, closed. The Hub made no blocks for 24 hours and 48 minutes, and 1.23 million ATOM later left the attacker's wallet.
The New York Stock Exchange signed a deal with Blockchain.com to explore tokenized US stocks and ETFs. Blockchain.com says it has more than 44 million accounts, and the plan still needs regulators' approval. In South Korea, KB Securities signed with Securitize and Optimism to build tokenized funds for local institutions.
Chainalysis says crypto activity fell just 1.6% in a year. Its count of on-chain activity came to $9.4 trillion over the latest 12 months, even as the total value of all coins fell by about half, or $2.1 trillion.
Fear and Greed: 71, Greed, flat. It read 71 yesterday too, so the mood hasn't followed the price down. Today's reading was taken over the same session as the prices above.
📒   Viv’s Notebook
Viv’s Notebook: the question changed
How Bitcoin went from fringe experiment to institutional asset
Bitcoin spent years written off as a scam, and today governments and pension funds hold it. In this Notebook, Viv takes the Ponzi and crime charges first. Then he gets to the change that mattered more, when people stopped asking what they could buy with it and asked whether it could hold its value. He leaves open where it goes from here.
Watch the full Notebook
Bitcoin has a steady buyer in the funds now, and a government bond paying 5.1% to compete with.
TC
This is The Crossover. We count the flows and read the bond market; what you do with your money is your decision. Guessing where bond yields go next is a hobby we gave up some time ago.
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