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GM. This is The Crossover.
Binance was hacked on Thursday afternoon, bitcoin fell below $80,000 by the evening, and the question this morning is who actually holds your coins.
Markets

Binance was hacked for about $6.3 billion

An empty white mug tipped on its side on an electric teal backdrop

At 4:24pm New York time on Thursday, one of Binance's hot wallets (the online wallets an exchange uses for everyday withdrawals) sent 167,464 ether, 1.6 billion USDT and 61 other tokens to an address created hours earlier. Changpeng Zhao, who co-founded Binance and no longer runs it, said within the hour that it "does look like a hack."

By Friday morning Binance put the damage at about $6.3 billion, and Chainalysis, the blockchain forensics firm, at about $6.4 billion. Tether says it froze more than $1.5 billion of the stolen money and Circle more than $800 million. With smaller freezes by the Arbitrum security council and other issuers, Binance counts about $3 billion that cannot move.

Binance first traced the attack to a compromised laptop belonging to one of its engineers, has since found further points of breach, and says it has seen no sign of a leaked private key. TRM Labs, another forensics firm, says with high confidence that the attackers were TraderTraitor, a North Korean hacking group. Binance has not named anyone. It says it will cover every user loss from its emergency fund and its own money. Deposits are working again, and Binance says it is on track to restart withdrawals within two days.

Traders sold before any of that was known. Bitcoin went from $81,138 at Thursday's reading to $76,880 at Friday's (00:44 UTC), down 5.2% and its first reading under $80,000 since September 18. Ether fell 6.3% to $2,207 and solana 8.4% to $93. Coinglass counts $628 million of leveraged bets wiped out in a single hour, 97% of them bets that prices would rise. On Uniswap, hundreds of ether changed hands at about 20% above the reference price while people paid up to get out of anything that touched Binance.

DefiLlama still counts about $135 billion in Binance's reserves against a $6.3 billion hole, and the exchange kept its promise to users on Thursday. An exchange balance is still an IOU from a company, backed by that promise and whatever the company holds in reserve. Coins in a wallet you control depend on neither, and after a night like Thursday's that is worth remembering before you decide where to keep yours.

DeFi

The NYSE's owner bought into Hyperliquid's biggest builder

Intercontinental Exchange owns the New York Stock Exchange. It is taking a minority stake in trade.xyz, the biggest builder of markets on Hyperliquid, and Stan Druckenmiller is investing alongside it.

The plan is a US venue called ICE[XYZ] with its own exchange and clearing house built on Hyperliquid. It would list perpetual futures (bets on a price with no expiry date) on stocks, indexes, commodities, currencies and crypto for identity-checked traders. It needs CFTC approval first, and neither side gave a launch date or a price for the stake. trade.xyz says its existing Hyperliquid markets have done more than $650 billion of volume in just over a year and will keep running.

HYPE rose more than 10% on a day everything else fell. If the regulator says yes, the perpetual futures that live on offshore crypto exchanges today would trade on a US-regulated venue with the NYSE's owner behind it.

Regulation

Polymarket halted trading after a $2.65 million exploit

Polymarket stopped all new trading on Thursday, minutes after a trader reported $800,000 drained from his account. The company put its exchange into cancel-only mode (you could cancel orders but not place them), blamed a third-party provider and said losses came to about $2.65 million. Trading has resumed and it says affected users were made whole.

It was Polymarket's second bad headline this week. Bloomberg reported that Polymarket is investigating suspicious bets on Israel's election, where some accounts together cashed out more than $100,000. Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis have written to Polymarket and Kalshi, the other big event-betting venue, asking how they stop insider trading on election bets, with answers due by November 3, the day of the midterms.

For anyone with money on a midterm market, the venue has to keep your balance safe and keep the odds clean, and this week it was asked about both.

⚖️ The Odds
Live prices from prediction markets, where real money is staked on real outcomes.
US recession by end of 2027? 32%
Down 3 pts. The bet is whether the US economy is in a recession at any point before the end of next year. The same market read 34% when we last showed it to you two weeks ago, 35% yesterday and 32% this morning, after a quarter of 3.4% growth, a Fed hold with two votes for a hike and a $6 billion exchange hack. Three points on all of that news is a quiet market.
🔭 What to Watch
Coinbase converts 14 restricted stablecoins for its European retail customers today. Under the EU's MiCA rules Coinbase swaps USDT, PYUSD, DAI and eleven other assets for retail customers in the European Economic Area on October 30. Anyone who wants to keep the original coin has to move it off the exchange before the conversion runs.
South Korea's ruling party meets the five big exchanges about delaying the crypto tax. The Democratic Party sits down with Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and Gopax today to discuss pushing back the capital gains tax on crypto due to start in January 2027. A delay keeps one of the world's busiest retail markets trading untaxed for longer.
The US bitcoin funds' Friday flows, the first full session after the hack. The funds still took in $17.2 million on Thursday, the hack day, by Farside's count. A big outflow today would mean the week's buyers have turned into sellers; another inflow would mark this as an exchange problem rather than a bitcoin one.
📈 The Tape
• Bitcoin $77,495, Ether $2,237.25, Solana $96.90 (10:37 UTC). Bitcoin down 3.4% in 24 hours, ether down 3.6%, solana down 3.4%. All three have come back a little from our 00:44 UTC readings, which were their lowest since mid-September.
• US bitcoin funds took in $17.2 million on Thursday, the hack day. That is $440.8 million so far this week and $192.1 million across the last seven sessions, by Farside's count; the ether funds lost $105.5 million on Thursday. Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, put it this way: "this is why ETFs are the new crypto exchanges... Cheaper and safer."
• Strategy made $19.53 billion in the third quarter, almost all of it paper gains on bitcoin. Michael Saylor's bitcoin-holding company booked a $20.91 billion gain on its 848,517 bitcoin and will start paying the dividend on its STRC preferred shares daily from November 1. Coinbase, reporting the same evening, said revenue fell 35% from a year ago to $1.22 billion.
• US growth ran at 3.4% in the third quarter and core inflation rose to 3.1%. The Fed's preferred inflation measure climbed to 3.1% in September from 3.0%, a day after two of its voters asked for a hike. If you're waiting for the Fed to cut so crypto can rally, this week made that less likely.
• Fear & Greed: 30, Fear, down 21 from 51 on Thursday. The reading covers Thursday, the hack day, across which bitcoin went from $81,138 to $76,880 on our snapshots.
In Pro today
Bitcoin fell to what its fund buyers paid

On Thursday afternoon, minutes after the US funds' trading day had closed, Binance's hot wallets began sending coins to an address nobody had labelled. Binance now puts the loss at about $6.3 billion. Within hours bitcoin had fallen 5%. It reads $77,495 this morning.

The sellers on Thursday night were traders being closed out. In a single hour about $606.6 million of bets on prices rising were closed out by force, on Coinglass's count, almost everything that was closed out that hour. That is the fastest the market can sell, and it was over before most people had read the news.

Most people who hold bitcoin sold nothing. The question for them is what the buyers who set the price in our record do next, and those buyers are the US spot funds.

The funds bought all week. They took in $440.8 million from Monday to Thursday, through the Fed's hold on Wednesday and the inflation report on Thursday morning, and their Thursday session had closed before Binance's first transfer went out. The hack took the price down to a line those buyers care about without the funds selling a dollar.

The line is what they paid. On our count the funds' buyers since the start of August paid about $78,600 a coin on average. That is about $1,100 above this morning's price. The buyers since September paid about $83,200, and they are losing money on every coin.

So the funds' buyers since August hold bitcoin at a small loss this morning, those since September at a bigger one, and the question is whether that changes what they do.

Read today’s Pro
The rest of this one is for Pro readers. It picks up where this stops.
Binance says every user will be made whole, and bitcoin still lost $4,000 in the hours before anyone knew that.
TC
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