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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
The bounce is already losing air, and the loudest story today is a President's coin getting its own bank.
REGULATION · Desk

World Liberty is about to become a bank.

World Liberty Financial — the stablecoin company co-founded by President Trump and his sons — is about to get a national trust bank charter. The reporter Jeff Stein at NOTUS broke it. Former officials at the agency that grants these charters told him a denial is "inconceivable."

That agency is the OCC, the federal regulator for national banks. Its current head is a Trump appointee. He's already waved through about a dozen crypto firms since arriving, cutting what used to be a two-year wait down to a 120-day target.

What does the charter actually do? Right now World Liberty's stablecoin, USD1, reaches users through a middleman. A bank charter lets the company issue USD1 to people directly and settle the transactions in-house, taking a cut on the way through the way PayPal does on a payment.

A charter turns a stablecoin into a bank-grade business. The company can issue directly, settle in-house, and earn fees on both.

Now the part that makes it strange. Trump holds a 70% stake in an entity that controls most of the company behind USD1. He reported $57 million in personal earnings from the venture for 2024 alone. That figure has almost certainly grown since. A federal regulator he appointed is about to hand his own crypto business the credibility of government oversight.

The narrow read is simple. USD1 is $4 billion in circulation, backed by Treasuries, and a charter makes it sturdier. Fine if you ever touch it. The wider read matters more. The same door that let Coinbase into the banking system is now open to crypto that the sitting President personally profits from. That's a new kind of company, and a charter doesn't answer the questions it raises.

 
 

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ETHEREUM · Desk

ETH holders are as underwater as the FTX bottom.

About 54 million ETH is held above the price people paid for it. That's the deepest the supply has been underwater since November 2022, when the FTX crash bottomed Ether near $1,100. Most of those coins date to last August's peak near $4,950.

Glassnode pulled the figure. Last time this many holders were underwater, the selling had burned out before a long recovery.

That's the hopeful read. The plain one is that a loss extreme shows pain, not demand coming back. It can mark a bottom, or a stop on the way lower.

One buyer isn't waiting to find out. Tom Lee's Bitmine, the biggest corporate ETH holder at 5.62 million tokens, kept stacking through all of it.

If you hold ETH, this marks where you are, not where you're headed. It's the same loss zone the last cycle bottomed in. That's been a floor before. It promises nothing now.

MARKETS · Desk

Five holdings, one bet in disguise.

Milk Road's head of research did something that made people blink. He sold half his Coinbase stock, a position up more than 4x from where he bought it.

He didn't turn bearish. The problem was his portfolio. He held Bitcoin, Ether, Coinbase, Robinhood and Galaxy Digital — and every one of them rips when crypto rips and bleeds when crypto bleeds. That's five tickers acting like one trade.

Coinbase was the heaviest piece, so trimming it took the most risk off the table. The fresh cash is now hunting for something that doesn't move in lockstep with everything else he owns.

That's the lesson hiding in a green week. A bounce makes a concentrated portfolio feel diversified, because everything's up together. When things turn, you find out you only ever owned one bet. De-risking into strength means buying something that zigs when your crypto zags.

🎯   The Odds
Will a US spot Ethereum staking ETF launch in 2026? 78%
  
 ·  Today's ETH funds just track the price. A staking version would pay holders the network's yield on top, and most of the money bets one clears the regulators this year. That's the institutional door the underwater holders are waiting on.
Will the US government buy Bitcoin for a strategic reserve in 2026? 31%
  
 ·  A government Bitcoin stockpile has gone from fringe idea to active proposal, and about a third of the money bets a purchase actually lands in 2026. If it does, that's the biggest new buyer crypto has ever had.
Will Solana fall to $40 by year-end? 38%
  
 ·  Solana's around $73. More than a third of the money bets it gets nearly halved by year-end — a minority view, but not a fringe one.
👁   What to Watch
01 Kevin Warsh runs his first Fed meeting tonight. The new Fed chair makes his debut call on interest rates this evening. Fresh forecasts have core inflation speeding back up to a two-year high, so if he points at that, the "no cuts coming" story hardens and risk assets like crypto stay capped. If he leans on cheaper oil and a slowing China instead, that's the dovish surprise almost nobody is positioned for.
02 Binance's European license verdict is due by June 30. Greece's regulator was reported to be rejecting Binance under the EU's new MiCA rulebook, then reported the same day to have cleared it. The exchange has to be licensed by the July 1 cutoff. A rejection means service disruptions for European users of the biggest exchange in crypto; a clearance ends the scare.
03 BlackRock's yield-paying Bitcoin ETF opens around Thursday. It's a new version of BlackRock's existing IBIT fund, built to pay income instead of only tracking the price. ETF inflows are the cleanest read on big-money demand right now, so whether fresh cash shows up tells you how much appetite is actually left.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin is around $65,700, down about 0.8% on the day. The relief pop to $67K after the Iran news has already slipped back under $66,000. The bounce is losing steam, not building on it.
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, its highest since 1995, and pinned the blame on oil. Cheap yen quietly funds a lot of risk-taking around the world, so pricier yen is the exact setup that triggered last August's crypto flush. Worth watching.
Strategy and Bitmine kept buying the dip. The two loudest corporate buyers added again, but Strategy is now roughly $8 billion underwater on its Bitcoin, a steady stream of buying that only holds while its own share price does.
Hayden Adams, Uniswap's founder, on who buys ETH next: "If Ethereum wins as financial infrastructure… the largest institutions building on top will view the ability to own a piece as a huge plus." The bet is that the builders become the buyers.
Fear & Greed: 22 – Extreme Fear. Down one from yesterday, still parked in the zone that has marked past lows. A green bounce didn't lift the mood.
A government just blessed a President's stablecoin, the bounce is already fading, and a brand-new Fed chair gets the last word tonight.
— TC

This is The Crossover. We tell you what happened and what it might mean — never what to do with your money, which we're only barely qualified to manage ourselves.

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