An oil shock and a Fed governor floating rate hikes landed in the same two days. Both are supposed to be bad news for something like Bitcoin. It barely moved.

Here is what actually happened. Brent crude jumped almost 11% to about $83 on renewed US-Iran strikes and a US push to control the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane a big slice of the world's oil passes through. In the same window, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a man who votes on rates, said out loud that if inflation stays hot the next move might be to make policy tighter, not looser. War, dearer oil, a hawkish Fed. The classic recipe for selling anything risky.

Bitcoin drifted from about $64,000 to about $62,000. A couple of percent, on a week that was supposed to break it.

So the reflexes kick in, and there are two of them. The bearish one says war plus oil plus a tougher Fed means dump crypto. The bullish one says Bitcoin is digital gold, a war hedge, this is its moment to run. Neither reflex explains a coin that just sat there.

Because both are looking at the wrong thing. An oil shock and a war headline only reach your Bitcoin through one place, and only if they get there first.

That place is the dollar. All downturn, the strength of the dollar has capped every attempt Bitcoin has made at a rally. When the dollar is strong, money is expensive, and expensive money holds down everything that runs on borrowed enthusiasm, crypto first among them.

An oil spike is only a Bitcoin problem if it becomes a dollar problem. And it only becomes a dollar problem if it first shows up as higher inflation and pushes the Fed to keep money expensive for longer.

None of that has happened yet. Which means the whole question, for anyone still holding Bitcoin, comes down to a single number the US government publishes this morning.

We have seen this run the other way, and recently.