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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
The crypto funds just had their worst six months ever — and Wall Street spent them moving in.
DEFI · Desk

Robinhood built its own blockchain.

Robinhood spent Tuesday on a stage in London, and by the end of it the app most people use to buy shares had turned into a blockchain.

The event was called The World is Flat. On it, Vlad Tenev's company switched on Robinhood Chain. It's their own network, built on Ethereum using the same tech as Arbitrum. In plain words, Robinhood now runs its own patch of the crypto world, and it has started moving its business onto it.

Here is what that means day to day. Outside the US, you can now buy and sell tokenised versions of real shares around the clock. Apple at two in the morning, if you like. Inside the Robinhood Wallet you can now make perpetual bets — leveraged wagers on which way a price moves, the kind that never used to sit inside a mainstream app — powered by Lighter, a fast trading engine built on Ethereum. In America, where the rules are tighter, Robinhood turned on lending against a dollar stablecoin instead. For ninety days it is charging nothing to use any of it.

Why the timing matters. The crypto funds have just had their worst six months ever. Money left the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for the first half-year on record. Read only the fund flows and you would think Wall Street had given up. It hasn't. It is doing something heavier. Renting exposure through a fund is the easy way in. Building your own chain, and putting your customers' trades on it, is the committed way. One you can sell in a click. The other you have to mean.

For anyone holding crypto, that is the thing worth seeing under an ugly tape. The price is down and the plumbing is being laid anyway — by the company that taught a generation to tap Buy.

MARKETS · Desk

The betting markets are becoming plumbing.

Raoul Pal sat down this week with Tarek Mansour, the man who built Kalshi, and the pitch was simple. The betting markets everyone once waved off as gambling are turning into something Wall Street now needs.

Kalshi and Polymarket let you put money on real questions — who wins an election, where inflation lands, whether a company goes public. When enough people bet real cash, the odds become a live price on things markets used to just guess at. Mansour's argument is that to value the S&P or the jobs market now, you need a read on AI and politics, and these markets price exactly that.

The numbers back the talk. The two venues cleared around $45 billion in bets in June alone, up three-quarters in a single month. The corner nobody took seriously is becoming plumbing.

REGULATION · Desk

Trump made a fortune. His fans didn't.

The US government released Donald Trump's yearly financial disclosure on Tuesday, all nine hundred pages of it, and one number jumped out. His family's crypto ventures brought in around $1.4 billion last year.

The same filing landed on a bad week for everyone else. Roughly two in three of the people who bought his own memecoin, the $TRUMP token, are sitting on losses. So the President made a fortune on crypto while many of the fans who bought in on his name are underwater.

That gap is the thing to keep an eye on. Every pro-crypto move this White House makes now carries a question about who it really pays. And the disclosure lands right as Congress fights over the big crypto rules, the ones that decide what this whole market is allowed to become.

🎲   The Odds
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by year-end? 55%
  
FLAT  ·  Just over half the real-money bets now expect Bitcoin to touch $50,000 before the year is out. With the price near $60,000 and the funds selling, the crowd is braced for another drop.
Will Base launch a token by the end of 2027? 68%
  
FLAT  ·  Two in three now bet that Base, Coinbase's own blockchain, finally issues a token by the end of 2027. Coinbase has dodged the question for years, and the market thinks the dodging is nearly done.
Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by year-end? 5%
  
FLAT  ·  One in twenty. The joke coin that led past rallies is being written off along with the rest of the alts.
👁   What to Watch
01 Hyperliquid's ~$650M token unlock, Monday. A big batch of new HYPE coins, worth around $650 million, is released to Hyperliquid's core team on Monday. HYPE has been one of the year's few winners. If those coins get sold into the market, the price will feel it. If the holders sit tight, it says they still believe in it.
02 Trump's fight to remove a Fed governor. The Supreme Court ruled against the President's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but Trump says his lawyers will keep pushing to remove her 'for cause' and has called the Fed board 'hostile' for not cutting rates. Every step in this fight chips at the idea that the Fed is independent — and that is what keeps gold and the debasement trade twitching.
03 Whether the ETF selling finally slows near $60,000. On-chain wallets bought around 270,000 Bitcoin near $59,000 while the funds kept selling. The two have pulled in opposite directions for weeks. The day the buying holds and the outflows start to narrow is the day this grim stretch turns, and the daily flow numbers will show it before the price does.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin is around $60,000. On-chain whales scooped up roughly 270,000 coins near $59,000, and Metaplanet lifted its stash to 43,000 BTC, buying above today's price even as the ETFs kept selling.
Venice AI hit a $1 billion valuation. Erik Voorhees' privacy-focused AI startup raised $65 million, led by Dragonfly, on Solana — a rare bright spot while the majors bleed.
Tokenised trading-card packs blew past $300 million in volume in June. The buy-a-digital-pack, hope-for-a-rare-card corner of crypto keeps compounding while the big coins go nowhere.
Quote of the day. "The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle. I think we’re nearing the bottom." — Matt Hougan, Bitwise.
Fear & Greed: 21 — Extreme Fear, up 2. A couple of green flickers, still no lift in the mood. This deep in fear has historically been a contrarian buy zone.
The money kept leaving the funds this half. The firms that shape markets spent it building on crypto’s own rails — and building is the slower story that usually wins.
— TC
This is The Crossover. We show you what moved and why; whether you act on it is entirely your own call. We’re good at joining the dots — nobody’s yet paid us to see the future, and for good reason.

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