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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
A few hours late today, and we’re sorry for that — this one got held up in the works. Worth the wait, though: the most relentless Bitcoin buyer on earth turned seller, and the market barely blinked.
BITCOIN · Desk

Strategy sold Bitcoin. The market held.

For six years Michael Saylor bought Bitcoin and never sold a coin. That ended this week. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin — about $216 million — between the 29th of June and the 5th of July. The money went to pay dividends on its preferred shares. The company is now down to 843,775 Bitcoin, alongside a $2.55 billion cash pile.

Here is the part that matters. Last week Strategy gave itself permission to sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin. These sales sit outside that cap. They are a separate tap, opened to cover dividend cheques, and it stays open for as long as those cheques keep coming due. So this is not a one-off. Saylor said plainly that more will follow.

You would expect the largest Bitcoin holder on earth turning seller to knock the price down. It didn't. Bitcoin closed the week higher, near $62,700, after touching $64,000. The market ate the first plate and asked for the bill.

That is the whole thing in one line. The seller everyone feared finally showed up, and the floor held.

The bulls call it healthy. A company paying its bills with a sliver of its stack proves it can raise cash under pressure, which quietly strengthens its case to join the S&P 500. The bears see a new, permanent trickle of supply from the one buyer who was never supposed to sell.

Both are right, and that is the point. What settles it is not today's price. It is how often Saylor has to come back to the well. A slow drip, the market drinks. A steady pour, it chokes. Watch the frequency of the next sale, not the size of this one.

ETHEREUM · Desk

One firm now owns nearly 5% of Ethereum.

On the same day Saylor sold Bitcoin, one company bought its way to nearly a twentieth of all Ethereum. BitMine, chaired by Tom Lee, added 42,197 ETH last week — around $73 million — to reach 5,742,237 ETH. That is 4.8% of every Ether in existence, a hair under the 5% line ever held by a single balance sheet.

It is the mirror of the Strategy story. As the flagship Bitcoin treasury turned seller, the flagship Ethereum treasury kept stacking. Good news for ETH holders in the near term: coins on one company's books are coins off the market, and tighter supply supports the price.

But hold that thought. When this much of one coin sits in one place, the way out is narrow. If BitMine ever has to sell, the door everyone crowds through gets very small, very fast.

REGULATION · Desk

Crypto's referees just lost their job security.

The people who police crypto in America just lost their protection from being fired. The Supreme Court threw out a 91-year-old rule that stopped a president from sacking the heads of independent agencies at will. In plain terms, Donald Trump can now remove the leaders of the SEC and the CFTC — the two bodies that write and enforce the country's crypto rules — more or less when he pleases.

The timing is the story. This lands just as the CLARITY Act, the bill meant to settle who regulates what in crypto, heads for a vote in Congress.

Depending on who ends up in those chairs, that is either a fast lane to friendlier rules or the loss of the independence markets lean on. Either way, the question of who writes the American crypto rulebook just got a lot more political, and a lot harder to predict.

🎲   The Odds
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by year-end? 68%
  
-16 PTS  ·  Nearly seven in ten still bet Ether — around $1,770 today — slides under $1,500 before the year is out. But that conviction dropped 16 points this week, the biggest move on the whole board.
Will Solana dip to $50 by year-end? 43%
  
-12 PTS  ·  A little under half see Solana — about $81 now — giving back a third of its value by December. That worry eased 12 points this week too, part of a broad softening in the gloom.
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by year-end? 47%
  
NEW  ·  New to the board, and almost a coin-flip. With Bitcoin near $62,700, the money is split down the middle on whether it climbs back to $75,000 before the year ends.
👁   What to Watch
01 Hyperliquid's $650 million token unlock. Around $650 million of HYPE, the token behind the busy Hyperliquid exchange, comes unlocked today. These coins were set aside for the people who built the project. The thing to watch is whether they sell or sit tight — a wave of selling would test one of the year's few winners.
02 Prediction markets get their first real scare. Users gamed Spotify's public charts to win bets, and Spotify is furious — it wants Kalshi and Polymarket to drop its logo. At the same time, Europe's markets watchdog warned these contracts may already break its rules on retail betting. Two cracks in the plumbing at once, as the whole corner goes mainstream.
03 The next Bitcoin ETF flow numbers. Wall Street's Bitcoin funds have bled money for weeks, though the pace is slowing. The next weekly figures tell you whether that bleed is finally drying up or whether the leverage-fuelled bounce snaps back. A turn to fresh inflows would be the first real sign the tide has changed.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin is around $62,700, up a touch on the day. It spiked to $64,000 midweek and closed higher despite Saylor's sale — the first time the market has swallowed Strategy selling and kept its feet.
TeraWulf signed a 20-year, $19 billion deal to power Anthropic's AI. A Bitcoin miner is renting its energy out to the AI boom — more proof that AI is out-bidding mining for electricity.
Crypto lost $1.31 billion to hackers in the first half of the year. CertiK counted 344 separate hacks — up 28% once you strip out last year's giant Bybit theft. A quiet tax on trusting DeFi.
Vitalik Buterin laid out a 'Lean Ethereum' plan. The roadmap leans on quantum-resistance and a simpler chain, and it lands while Ether is the worst-performing major coin of the year.
Fear & Greed: 24 — Extreme Fear, up 1. Still deep in the fear zone, barely off last week's lows. Below 20 has often been where the brave start buying.
The seller everyone dreaded finally showed up, and Bitcoin is still on its feet — now it’s about how often he comes back.
— TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what moved and why; what you do with it is entirely yours. We read the room for a living — just don’t ask us to read the future.

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