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THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Three big fights broke out in crypto this week, and every one of them was about who owns the customer.
DEFI · Desk

Hyperliquid spends its fees buying its own token.

Mike Novogratz runs Galaxy Digital. On its quarterly call this week he called the year flat and frustrating. Most big chain tokens are lower than they started, and the money that used to gamble in crypto has gone to prediction markets, sports betting and same-day stock options.

Then he named the one exception. "There's been one ecosystem, Hyperliquid, that's had a spectacularly good year outright and certainly relative, just a dominant year."

Here is the machine under it. Hyperliquid takes the fees people pay to trade on it and sends about 99% of them into buying its own token on the open market. More trading, more fees. More fees, more buying. What it has taken off the market is worth close to $3 billion.

More use, less supply. No committee votes on it. It just runs.

And the thing it runs on keeps getting wider. A change called HIP-3 let anyone open a tokenized market there, so the venue now trades SK Hynix shares and the S&P 500 around the clock. That was a couple of percent of activity in January. It is about a third now. Open bets on those tokenized markets hit an all-time high near $3.6 billion this week.

A second pipe feeds the same buybacks. Coin Metrics research this week shows Hyperliquid can keep up to 90% of the interest earned on the USDC parked on its platform, an estimated $135 million to $160 million a year that used to go to Circle and Coinbase.

So it takes a cut of the trading and a cut of the idle cash, and spends both on itself. Average leverage there has been falling, which points to real money rather than borrowed.

That leaves a plain question for anything else you hold. Where do its fees go? For most tokens the honest answer is nowhere near you. That is the comparison every new launch has to survive.

STABLECOINS · Desk

Stripe bid $53 billion for PayPal.

Stripe has reportedly offered $60.50 a share for PayPal, around $53.4 billion, with the private equity firm Advent. PayPal's board could meet next week. If it closes it is the biggest fintech deal ever done.

Stripe has spent three years buying the parts of a stablecoin business. It paid about $1.1 billion for Bridge, which issues them. It bought Privy, which builds wallets. It started its own chain, Tempo, with Paradigm. It signed up to Open USD.

What it never had was people. Stripe sells plumbing to merchants and developers. It has no app your mother uses.

PayPal has hundreds of millions of accounts, Venmo, and its own stablecoin. Bankless calls it PayPal in the front, Tempo in the back.

Whoever owns the app your money leaves from decides which chain it crosses. That is what is being bid for this month, at the price of a mid-sized bank.

 
 

Visa built its new platform around Open USD.

Circle's stock fell 17% in a day. That was June 30. A consortium of around 140 banks and payment firms, Visa and Stripe among them, announced a dollar coin called Open USD. Its design is the whole point. Nearly all the interest its reserves earn goes to the firms that hand it out, not the issuer.

A day after Stripe's bid, Visa announced a hub where banks and fintechs can mint and redeem stablecoins in one place. Open USD is the first coin supported.

Coin Metrics scored the damage this week. USDC still settles roughly 79% of $38 trillion in on-chain transfers this year. Circle's margin is the soft part. Reserve income was 96% of its $2.7 billion revenue last year.

Visa reaches 200 million merchants, and just handed them a mint button for a coin that pays them to use it. Sooner or later one offers it to you.

🎲   The Odds
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? 26%
  
+16 PTS  ·  A quarter of the money now says US crude touches $90 before the month is out, and that is up 16 points in a week. Trump is weighing an expansion of the war with Iran ahead of a national address, and oil is the fastest way that reaches you. Costly oil keeps inflation up, and inflation is what keeps money expensive for everything else you own.
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? 52%
  
+8 PTS  ·  A coin flip. Just over half the money now bets Ethereum touches $1,500 at some point this year, up 8 points in a week. It sits near $1,858 today, so the crowd has grown more comfortable with the idea of another big fall before December.
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? 34%
  
+1 PT  ·  A third of the money says Bitcoin sees $50,000 at some point this year, and that barely moved all week, which is the honest summary of Bitcoin right now. The oil bet moved 16 points in the same seven days. This one moved one.
👁   What to Watch
01 The White House meeting on the CLARITY Act. CLARITY is the bill that would finally settle which US regulator polices which part of crypto. It has to get floor time before Congress breaks for recess, and a meeting at the White House decides whether it does. One thing sits over all of it though. Trump has said on the record that he will not sign any legislation until a separate voting bill passes first.
02 The June PCE inflation reading. The Fed steers by PCE, not by the consumer price headline that came in soft on Tuesday. It is the number that decides whether that soft reading was a real turn or a one-off. Come in hot and the people arguing for higher rates get their evidence handed to them.
03 IBM's full results on Wednesday. IBM fell 25% in a single session last week, its worst day in 115 years, on preliminary figures alone. The full set lands on July 22. It answers whether companies are adding AI spending on top of their budgets or pulling it out of everything else, and the second one is what drags a whole index down.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin $63,777, down 1.1% on the day. Ethereum sits at $1,858 and Solana at $75. Nothing much moved, which has been the week's whole story.
Venezuelans moved stablecoin volume last month equal to 64% of the central bank's entire dollar supply. That is a whole country running a second dollar system on-chain, because the official one does not reach far enough.
SK Hynix shares cost 50% more in New York than the identical shares in Seoul. The buying and selling that would normally close that gap is blocked, so it just sits there. Anyone who held GBTC knows how this one ends. It ran to a 100% premium, then to a 45% discount.
Researchers say Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin markets are being gamed. A Stanford and SMU working paper found bursts of one-sided buying on Binance nudging Bitcoin's price in the last seconds before the bets settle. Two months of data.
Fear & Greed: 27, Fear, up two points. Out of Extreme Fear for the first time in a while, and only barely.
Three companies spent the week fighting over who gets paid when your dollar sits still, and not one of them asked you.
— TC
This is The Crossover. We tell you what moved and why we think it moved; what you do with your money after that is entirely your call. We read the plumbing well. We have never once read the future.

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