This website uses cookies

Read our Privacy policy and Terms of use for more information.

THE BRIEFING
GM. This is The Crossover.
Crypto just closed its worst six months in years. And on that exact morning, 140 of the biggest companies on earth decided to build on it.
STABLECOINS · Desk

A dollar built by 140 firms just rattled Circle.

Some of the biggest names on earth just teamed up to print their own dollar. More than 140 firms (BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Google, Coinbase, Shopify, even DoorDash) signed on to launch Open USD, a new stablecoin going live later this year. A stablecoin is a token pegged to a dollar, one for one, used to move money online without a bank in the middle. That job has belonged to two coins, Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC.

The difference is who keeps the money. Behind every one of these coins sits a pile of cash, mostly US Treasuries, and that cash earns interest. Open USD hands most of that interest back to the member firms instead of letting one company pocket it.

A separate body called Open Standard runs it, and the board is the partners themselves. Stripe is already making it the default for its business customers. Coinbase is bringing it onto its Base network. Solana is one of the rails it launches on.

One company feels this more than the rest. Circle makes its money by keeping the interest on the cash behind USDC. That is the very thing Open USD is built to give away for free. The market worked it out in minutes. Circle's stock fell about 13%, to around $66. Then Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought roughly $3.3 million of the dip, and topped up on Coinbase, Robinhood and the exchange Bullish.

If you hold stablecoins, nothing breaks. Your USDC and USDT spend the same today as yesterday. But the floor under them has moved. When the card networks, a row of banks and Big Tech all agree to issue money together and pay each other for the trouble, being the dollar's middleman gets a lot more crowded. The cash layer under crypto is where the real fight moved this week.

BITCOIN · Desk

Crypto's ugly quarter hid one healthy number.

The quarter is done, and the numbers are grim. Coin Metrics added it up. Bitcoin is down about 10% across the first six months. Ethereum is down 20%, Solana off 13%. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, climbed 28%.

Every place crypto gets its money from shrank at once. The ETFs lost $4.08 billion. Corporate buyers all but stopped. Stablecoins gave back $4.2 billion.

But something underneath got healthier. $8.35 billion of borrowed bets got wiped out over the half, and the pile of open bets shrank by a third, to 40% off its peak. Coin Metrics calls the market going into the back half thinner but steadier. The borrowed money that turned every dip into a rout is mostly gone. What's missing now is a buyer, and no report can conjure one.

RWA · Desk

An insurer from 1845 just put a fund on-chain.

One of the oldest insurers in America just stepped on-chain. New York Life Investment Management, the money-managing arm of an insurer founded in 1845, teamed up with the crypto firm Centrifuge to put one of its funds on a blockchain. The fund itself is dull and respectable, a pool of high-yield corporate bonds sold to big institutions. Now a tokenised slice of it can be held and moved on-chain, for the investors allowed to touch it.

It's a small move with a very big name on it.

When a name your parents would know puts a real fund on-chain, tokenised finance stops looking like a crypto toy and starts looking like plumbing the grown-ups mean to use. For anyone holding crypto, it's one more sign that the old financial world is moving onto these rails while the rest of the market watches the price fall.

🎲   The Odds
Will Solana crash to $40 by year-end? 35%
  
-10 PTS  ·  The crowd's bet on Solana falling all the way to $40 just shed ten points. Even after a rotten quarter, fewer people are backing the deep drop.
Will USDC grow to half of Tether's size by year-end? 39%
  
NEW  ·  The crowd gives Circle's USDC a 39% chance of reaching half Tether's size by December. That looks harder now that 140 firms are launching a rival dollar this week.
Will the US enter a recession by year-end? 12%
  
FLAT  ·  For all the red in crypto, the crowd still puts only a 12% chance on a US recession this year. The pain sits in risky bets, not the wider economy. Not yet, anyway.
👁   What to Watch
01 The yen just hit a 40-year low. Japan's currency slid past 162 to the dollar, the weakest it has been in forty years. Cheap yen has bankrolled bets on everything from US shares to crypto. If it snaps back the way it did in August 2024, those bets come undone fast, and Bitcoin usually falls with them.
02 A $650 million token unlock hits Hyperliquid on July 6. On Monday, Hyperliquid's HYPE token hands roughly $650 million of fresh coins to its early backers. New supply like that has to be soaked up by someone. The question is whether the price holds or sags as the date comes.
03 Q3's first ETF numbers land this week. The US Bitcoin funds start reporting July's money after six straight weeks of outflows finally showed a first flicker of buying beyond BlackRock. Another week of that spreading wider would be the first real sign the buyers are back. More red would mean the drought runs on.
📟   The Tape
Bitcoin sits near $60,000. That's about half its record of nearly $126,000 from late last year, and the funds that were meant to cushion the falls are underwater.
Strategy got marked down again. TD Cowen now values Michael Saylor's Bitcoin-holding company at $260 a share, down from $400, on a dimmer Bitcoin forecast.
SharpLink bought another 10,000 ETH. The Ethereum treasury company now holds about 886,725 ETH. One buyer keeps adding while the rest of the market steps back.
Taiwan passed a full crypto rulebook. Its legislature approved rules covering trading platforms and stablecoin issuers, and now it waits on the president's signature. Another government choosing to regulate crypto rather than ban it.
Fear & Greed: 11, extreme fear, down 4. Sentiment fell another four points, dropping deeper into a zone that has usually been a place to buy, not a warning to run.
The numbers say crypto lost the half. The wiring underneath says someone’s already building the next one.
— TC
This is The Crossover. We join the dots and tell you what we make of them. Where your money goes is your call, and yours alone. Sharp on the why, useless as a fortune-teller.

Keep Reading