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The Pro Briefing
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You have watched Bitcoin break to a nine-month low this week, and every headline is asking how much lower it goes. We have a less popular question. This is the price we said we’d buy, so are we buying?
BITCOIN · the feature

Bitcoin just hit the price we wanted.

Bitcoin fell to its lowest price since last September this week. Almost everyone is reading that one way. Get out, or at least wait until it stops falling.

We are reading it the other way.

Bitcoin is trading around $59,000 right now. That is inside the zone we said we would start buying when we opened this call ten days ago. It did not sneak up on us. We drew the line then and waited for the market to come to it. This week it did.

The case for staying away is easy to make right now, and it is not a stupid one. Inflation came in hot yesterday, the hottest core reading in over two years. That pushes the rate cuts everyone wanted further away. The big Bitcoin funds dumped a net $469 million in a single day, their worst of the stretch. The largest corporate holders are now deep underwater on paper. Every screen is red, and every red thing points lower.

There is a nastier wrinkle on top. This week crypto stopped behaving like a hedge. It fell with the stock market on the bad days and would not bounce with it on the good ones. A sharp drop in Asian stocks on Friday morning even dragged Bitcoin back under $59,000 on the way down. The one comfort people reach for, that crypto marches to its own drum, was missing.

None of that is new to us, and none of it changes the level.

We did not pick that level because of this week. We chose it in the middle of June, before the flush, off two things that have nothing to do with the panic. One, it is where buyers have stepped in again and again. Two, it sits below the roughly $78,000 it now costs to mine a single coin.

That second number does real work, so sit with it. Bitcoin has spent almost the whole year trading above the cost of mining a coin. Now it is below it. That is rare, and it has tended to mark levels closer to a floor than a top.

Since we opened the call ten days ago, the message has not changed. Wait for this price to come to us. We were not predicting the crash that would bring it here. We were drawing the level where we would act if it came, and letting the market decide when. This week it decided.

So the price we have been waiting for is finally here. The fear everyone is selling is the exact thing we said we'd buy.

The only question left is whether we trust it. And that turns on one number nobody can see yet.

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